Price, Not Volume

Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the earnings call for Micron stock, ticker symbol MU, that is now down 2% on the day. At one point, Micron actually fell below $1,000 per share. Okay, the stock is now up to,028. We're going to be following this company not only through the price action into the close, but also uh getting the numbers out for you, talking about the actual predictions for this stock for its actual earnings, less on the actual um you know where the stock price is going to go.

女士们先生们,女士们先生们,欢迎收看 Micron 这只股票的财报电话会议直播,代码 MU,现在当天跌了 2%。一度 Micron 实际上还跌破了每股 $1,000。好,现在股价回到了 1,028。我们不仅会跟踪它收盘前的价格走势,还会呃帮你们把数字都梳理出来,聊聊对这只股票实际的预测、它实际的盈利,而不是太纠结于嗯你懂的股价到底会往哪走。

I've got no clue. I was wrong last quarter. Thought that there was going to be a positive movement up. We were correct on the earnings essentially. Last quarter they beat on revenue by roughly 20%, they beat on EPS by roughly 40%. Then they beat on the guidance by roughly 46%. Okay. Uh that got me very excited, but yet the stock went from like $450 a share down to about 317 I think at the low.

我完全没头绪。上个季度我就错了。我以为会有一波往上的正向走势。我们在盈利这块基本上是对的。上个季度他们营收超预期大概 20%,EPS 超预期大概 40%,然后指引又超预期大概 46%。好。呃这让我非常兴奋,但股价却从大概每股 $450 一路跌到我记得低点大约 317。

We can actually look back here. Uh last earnings we went into the earnings at roughly $460ish dollars down to 311 and now between last quarter at 450 460 to now we've roughly 2.5x or a little over 2x actually on the stock price. So has earnings been enough to justify this increase in not only the valuation but the multiple as well. So, uh, the interesting part about Micron is that it's still relatively cheap versus how much their forward earnings are looking to be.

我们其实可以往回看一下。呃上次财报我们是在大概 $460 左右进的,跌到 311,而现在从上个季度的 450、460 到现在,我们这只股票股价大概涨了 2.5 倍,其实是略超 2 倍。所以盈利到底够不够撑得起这波不只是估值、还有倍数的上涨。所以呃 Micron 有意思的地方在于,相对它远期盈利会有多高来说,它仍然算相对便宜。

So, um, I think this company is trading at roughly a 8x, let's bring that up, 8x multiple on the stock. And, um, that, uh, is pretty low versus many of the other companies that we've seen in this trade. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the great and powerful Jose.

所以嗯,我觉得这家公司现在大概交易在 8 倍,我们把它调出来看看,股票 8 倍倍数。而且嗯,这个呃相对我们在这波交易里看到的其他很多公司来说是相当低的。女士们先生们,有请伟大而强大的 Jose。

What's going on, Tanner? How's it going, man? Brother, thanks for joining me. It it feels like it's been a while, so I had I had to come. I don't know how much time I have, but I I think I got at least 30 to an hour.

怎么样啊,Tanner?最近还好吗,老兄?兄弟,谢谢你叫我来。感觉好像有阵子没见了,所以我必须得来。我不知道我有多少时间,但我想至少有 30 分钟到一小时。

Really? Okay, perfect. Perfect. Um yeah, I talked to you last I think um on SpaceX IPO day. It was a little bit ago. Oh, yeah. You were hosting the the cool thing. Pretty cool. You did the cool thing.

真的吗?好,完美。完美。嗯对,我上次跟你聊我记得是嗯在 SpaceX IPO 那天。有点久之前了。哦对,你当时在主持那个很酷的活动。挺酷的。你搞了那个很酷的事。

I know this guy. Yeah. Um but uh did you even know I was going to be there by the way? Uh I think um Gav uh I forget. Uh who I I completely forget who I just remember you, Tanner.

我认识这家伙。对。嗯不过呃你当时知道我会去吗对了?呃我想嗯 Gav 呃我忘了。呃是谁我完全忘了,我只记得你,Tanner。

Oh my goodness. No, you got it was Gav, right? Okay. Yeah. I'm like, "Oh my god, who else was I talking to?" Yeah, I think uh he told me you were going to be there.

哦天哪。不对,你说对了是 Gav,对吧?好。对。我当时就想,"哦天哪,我当时还在跟谁聊来着?"对,我想呃是他告诉我你会去的。

Yeah. Okay, gotcha. Um, that being said, we've got Micron today. The stock fell below $1,000. Uh, crazy. I I mean, so much semiconductor stocks stocks just chip stocks getting hit today and I think maybe yesterday.

对。好,明白了。话说回来,我们今天聊 Micron。这只股票跌破了 $1,000。呃太疯狂了。我是说,这么多半导体股票股票就是芯片股今天都被砸了,我想可能昨天也是。

But what what do you think of all this? I mean, what the chip is happening right now? Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm not going to lie. I did take opportunities today to uh dollar cost average into um a few names. Um I'm I'm still very much bullish in the AI space, the NeoCloud space. Um then I'm even looking into now um a lot of the high growth names have taken a bit of a pull down as well.

但你你怎么看这一切?我是说,现在这芯片到底怎么了?对,我我不骗你。我今天确实抓住机会呃分批买入了嗯几只票。嗯我我仍然非常看多 AI 这块、NeoCloud 这块。嗯然后我现在甚至还在研究嗯很多高成长的票也回调了一些。

So a lot to research. I can't say I understand obviously some of these companies have been stretch valuations. We can easily say um just stretch valuations on a lot of these names, but um I'm pretty excited for long-term opportunity. While I don't own Micron, I think they're going to they share a lot of great insight about the industry. Um, and even if you're not a Micron shareholder, uh, they're going to tell us about um, commentary for 2026, which they're already sold out, but commentary for 2027.

所以有很多要研究的。我没法说我都搞懂了,显然这些公司里有些估值已经被拉伸了。我们可以很轻松地说嗯这些票里很多就是估值被拉伸了,但是嗯我对长期的机会还是挺兴奋的。虽然我不持有 Micron,我觉得他们会分享很多关于这个行业很棒的洞见。嗯,而且就算你不是 Micron 股东,呃他们也会告诉我们嗯关于 2026 年的评论,他们 2026 已经卖光了,还有关于 2027 年的评论。

Uh, what's beyond that, right? We just kind of got that uh, Anthropic deal with them. Um, and I'm pretty sure if Anthropic is is making a deal with them, that's not just for this year, that's for future years. So, um I I'm more here to kind of see a top level of the whole AI industry, uh thanks to Micron.

呃,再往后呢,对吧?我们刚刚拿到了那个呃跟他们的 Anthropic 那笔交易。嗯,而且我挺确定如果 Anthropic 在跟他们做交易,那肯定不只是为了今年,那是为了往后好几年。所以,嗯我我更多是来这儿看一看整个 AI 行业的顶层全貌,呃多亏了 Micron。

Yeah. Yeah. I just saw this report the other day from semi analysis that said that the amount of spend of the capex in 2026 going towards memory was something like 35%. 35 36%. Um whereas next year for 2027 they expect to be spending somewhere around 48% of capex spend will go towards memory in 2027.

对。对。我前几天刚看到 SemiAnalysis 出的这份报告,说 2026 年 capex 里流向内存的金额大概是 35% 左右。35、36%。嗯而明年 2027 年他们预计 capex 支出里大概会有 48% 左右流向内存,在 2027 年。

That's wild and I mean at least it tells you I think it from there you can kind of pinpoint that at least next year there's still a massive shortage in this space if you're seeing that pricing increase. I know a lot of the um at least for Micron a lot of the new factories start at the end of 2027. So would be curious to see how that changes right how if if any new uh kind of uh in uh supply um even shifts the demand a little bit but if if we need as much compute as it's crazy this is such a tricky one for me Tanners like I see the bullish case for memory it's just not one that I was like it's it's not that I was bearish on the bullish take it's

那太疯狂了,我是说至少它告诉你我觉得从那儿你大概能推断出至少明年这个领域还是有巨大的短缺,如果你看到那个价格上涨的话。我知道很多嗯至少对 Micron 来说很多新工厂是在 2027 年底才开。所以会挺好奇这会怎么变,对吧,如果如果有任何新的呃那种呃供应嗯哪怕稍微改变一点需求,但如果如果我们需要那么多算力,这太疯狂了,这对我来说真是个很棘手的问题,Tanner,就是我看得到内存的看多逻辑,只是这不是那种我会就是,不是说我对这个看多观点是看空的,只是

just I've never been one to be great at valuations and stuff like Yeah. No, I I also think you've been around for a little bit and I remember Micron 2018 2019 like these were extremely extremely hard companies to bet on. They uh or or even into I think 2022 or something like this where gross margins fell into the negatives like uh memory pricing is extremely hard and I still think that worry is in the stock price today.

只是我从来就不是那种特别擅长估值之类的人,就像 对。不,我我也觉得你混这行有一阵子了,我记得 Micron 2018、2019 那时候就像这些是极其极其难下注的公司。他们呃或者甚至到我想 2022 年还是什么时候,毛利率跌到负的,就像呃内存定价极其难搞,我现在仍然觉得那份担忧还反映在今天的股价里。

We're only at like eight times forward P. And I was going to bring that up here as well until you uh interrupted my stream. My apologies. But I mean, like you mentioned, 40 40 plus percent, you know, people are mad about that, right? They're angry and they're they're they're getting taken to to a hotel without even a first date or anything. It's just that's it. And all they can say is thank you for for the good time, even if they didn't they they don't really enjoy it.

我们才大概 8 倍远期市盈率。我本来也正想在这儿提这个,直到你呃打断了我的直播。我道歉。但我是说,就像你提到的,40、40 多个百分点,你懂的,人们对这个很气,对吧?他们很愤怒,他们他们被带进了一家酒店,连第一次约会什么的都没有过。就这样,完事了。而他们能说的只有谢谢你给的这段美好时光,哪怕他们其实没有他们其实没怎么享受。

So, um it's they're getting messed up bad. Um and eventually something has to happen. But one thing that I uh memory players have definitely talked about is kind of entering the custom HBM space, right? Where where um you you start to have the memory more integrated into the chip itself. Um and that also creates kind of a bigger moat in the future. So I with this anthropic partnership I I felt like that was kind of like the early indications uh because it seems anthropic and micron are going to work on um kind of creating a memory way to make better for anthropic models and and today we saw open AI release their AI chip right so um I think it's showcasing that custom HPN space um and again it's like it's a reason why you

所以,嗯这就是他们被搞得很惨。嗯最终总得发生点什么。但有一件事我呃内存厂商肯定都聊到过的,就是开始进入定制 HBM 这块,对吧?那种呃你你开始让内存更多地集成进芯片本身。嗯而这在未来也会造出一条更大的护城河。所以我看到这个 Anthropic 的合作,我我感觉那有点像是早期的迹象呃,因为看起来 Anthropic 和 Micron 要一起合作嗯造一种内存方式,把它做得对 Anthropic 模型更好,而且今天我们看到 OpenAI 发布了他们的 AI 芯片,对吧,所以嗯我觉得这是在展示那个定制 HBM 这块,嗯再说一次,这就像这就是一个为什么你

still want to be bullish in in the space Um, even with all the negativity that can also happen, right? You you have 49% people are going to get mad

仍然想在这个领域看多的理由。嗯,即使伴随着所有那些也可能发生的负面情绪,对吧?你有 49% 的人会很气

at that as well. Can can we talk on that Broadcom deal really quick cuz that's pretty crazy. I remember whenever that was first announced and I was like, "Okay, we've got years until that actually hits the field." Nine months from starting design to tape out. I mean, does that ever happen? That's that seemed like half or if not a third of the time that I thought it was going to take.

我们能不能就那个 Broadcom 的交易快速聊一下？因为那个挺疯狂的。我记得那个最初被宣布的时候，我当时就想，"好吧，离这东西真正落地还有好几年呢。"从开始设计到流片才九个月。我是说，这种事真发生过吗？这看起来只有我以为它要花的时间的一半，要不就是三分之一。

Yeah, that that's extremely fast. I mean, right, Nvidia is doing on an annual bait, an annual cadence, right? So, it's like it's and that's something that's new for uh top tier player. So, for OpenAI to do this uh now, Broadcom has done this for a while now, right? So, I I I wonder how much in the press release, OpenAI really made it seem like it was mainly them.

是啊，那速度极其快。我是说，对吧，Nvidia 是按一个年度——一个年度的节奏在做的，对吧？所以这就像是……而且这对一个顶级玩家来说是新鲜事。所以让 OpenAI 现在来做这个，呃，Broadcom 已经做这个有一阵子了，对吧？所以我——我——我在想，在那份新闻稿里，OpenAI 到底把这件事说得多像是主要是他们自己做的。

Um but I wonder behind the scenes, right? how much did RockCom like play into kind of hey they're they're helping all these players out building their own AS6 solutions. They have a great team of engineers. Um and then they kind of threw a little bit that their AI models helped out a lot. Um, so I'm curious how maybe like companies like Synopsis or Cadence will react to more things like that where it's like, wait, your AI model can replace in theory, which I don't think it can, but I I it's like, does the SAS apocalypse go into the EDA soon?

嗯，但我在想幕后，对吧？Broadcom 到底起了多大作用，就像是嘿，他们在帮所有这些玩家构建他们自己的 ASIC 解决方案。他们有一支很棒的工程师团队。嗯，然后他们又稍微提了一下，说他们的 AI 模型帮了大忙。嗯，所以我很好奇，也许像 Synopsys 或者 Cadence 这样的公司会怎么对更多这类事情做出反应，就像是，等等，你的 AI 模型理论上能取代——我不认为它能，但我——这就像是，「SaaS 末日」会不会很快蔓延到 EDA 领域？

Um, where it's like, oh, nine months to to to design and do all this. Why do we need a license for for cadence and synopsis? Even though I believe we do, the market sometimes gets a little uh a little funky with stuff like that.

嗯，就像是，哦，九个月就能设计完并把这一切都做完。我们为什么还需要 Cadence 和 Synopsys 的授权？尽管我相信我们是需要的，但市场有时候对这类东西会变得有点——有点古怪。

Yeah. Speaking of which, you have companies in the uh software space that are getting absolutely hammered. Palunteer $113 today. I don't know if you've seen this, but crazy. Hit 1125. Um that's a pretty stark selloff from where we were before. I think some people are looking now at Wall Street's estimates. They're now around a 1.1 if not a one times peg ratio now. That's a stark contrast from where we were not long ago where we were looking at Palanteer at like a three times peg.

是啊。说到这个，你看软件领域有些公司正在被狠狠地砸盘。Palantir 今天 $113。我不知道你看到没有，但太疯狂了。跌到了 1125。嗯，这相比我们之前所处的位置是一次相当剧烈的抛售。我想现在有些人在看华尔街的估值。他们现在大概是在 1.1 倍，要不就是 1 倍的 PEG 比率了。这跟我们不久前看 Palantir 大概是 3 倍 PEG 的情况形成了鲜明对比。

Like really expensive. Um so so curious for you Tanner, what what do you think is really driving um kind of this sell off right now? And obviously my mind is usually just in the semiconductor space. So I didn't even know like software stocks or anything else were down today or or any other day. Um, but just curious to hear your take there.

就像是真的很贵。嗯，所以——所以很好奇你怎么看，Tanner，你觉得现在到底是什么在驱动这种抛售？而且显然我的脑子通常就只在半导体领域里。所以我甚至都不知道软件股或者别的什么今天跌了，或者别的哪天跌了。嗯，但就是很想听听你那边的看法。

Well, I think it's it's uh twofold. So, I'm surprised that Cerebrris is getting taken down and Nvidia um that that's crazy how all of the the chip names can come down. But then on the other side, I think the software names are selling off because uh people are realizing that potentially the models can do much more on their own. Um, I'm still a believer that much of the software will still survive and in fact Palunteer will be strengthened by artificial intelligence, not weakened.

嗯，我觉得这是——这是，呃，两方面的。所以，我很惊讶 Cerebras 也被砸下去了，还有 Nvidia，那——那太疯狂了，所有这些芯片股居然都能跌下来。但另一方面，我觉得软件股在抛售是因为，呃，人们意识到这些模型潜在地可以靠自己做更多的事。嗯，我仍然相信很多软件还是会存活下来，而且事实上 Palantir 会被人工智能加强，而不是削弱。

But, um, it's still surprising to me that people can essentially sell off both themes even though the a little bit they're they're kind of opposites in ways. They kind of benefit from each other. U, they usually don't tear each other down. Um, I'm not seeing any reports showing down a or showing a slowdown in actual demand. Where are the the data centers that are being cancelled? Not regulatory, I mean customer cancellations and Crusoe, you probably reported on uh there was that indication that they might have a customer that was cancelelling a data center.

但是，嗯，让我还是很惊讶的是，人们居然能基本上把这两个主题都抛售掉，尽管它们某种程度上有点——它们在某些方面是对立的。它们其实是互相受益的。呃，它们通常不会互相拆台。嗯，我没看到任何报告显示需求——或者显示实际需求在放缓。那些被取消的数据中心在哪儿？不是监管层面的，我是说客户取消，还有 Crusoe，你可能报道过，呃，当时有迹象表明他们可能有个客户在取消一个数据中心。

Turns out that wasn't true. You know, Crusoe was kicked off the the contract, not their customer. So if there's not a slowdown and customers are still at a severe compute um bottleneck, I just don't understand how we could sell off these names considering the fact that a lot of these names Palanteer excluded from this cuz you can look at their current PE not not forward but current and say you know 127 times as expensive but I don't see that for names like Microsoft for Nvidia for uh many of these companies that are being sold off Nvidia below 200 today and their price to earnings ratio is 30 times forward is like 20 times 20.8 or something.

结果发现那不是真的。你知道，是 Crusoe 被踢出了那份合同，不是他们的客户。所以如果没有放缓，而且客户仍然处在严重的算力——嗯——瓶颈里，我就是不明白我们怎么能抛售这些股票，考虑到这样一个事实：很多这些股票——Palantir 从这里面排除掉，因为你可以看它当前的 PE——不是远期的而是当前的——然后说，你知道，127 倍那么贵，但我没看到像 Microsoft、像 Nvidia、像呃很多这些正在被抛售的公司是那样。Nvidia 今天跌破 200，而它的市盈率是 30 倍，远期是大概 20 倍，20.8 之类的。

So that's surprising to me knowing that demand is not slowing down and and and to me I mean have you seen Tanner um Epic Games they they they had an event last week I think and they showcased how um Epic Games with their Unreal Engine um how you can connect uh Claude and Open AAI to it uh to help have you seen that?

所以这让我很惊讶，知道需求并没有在放缓，而且——对我来说，我是说，你看到没有，Tanner，呃 Epic Games，他们——他们上周开了个活动，我想，然后他们展示了，嗯 Epic Games 用他们的 Unreal Engine，嗯你怎么能把，呃 Claude 和 OpenAI 接到上面去，呃来帮忙——你看到那个了吗？

No, but uh let me see if I can pull it up really quickly. Um, and I think this showcases exactly what I think is going to happen with AI and why I think kind of like I don't invest in SAS. Um, I don't I I had have like a position in synopsis. Um, but outside of that, nothing crazy. Let me share screen here if I can. Um, so let me see.

没有，但是，呃，让我看看能不能很快把它调出来。嗯，而且我觉得这恰恰展示了我认为 AI 将会发生的事情，以及为什么我有点像——我不投 SaaS。嗯，我不——我有点像在 Synopsys 上有个仓位。嗯，但除此之外，没什么大动作。让我在这儿共享一下屏幕，如果我可以的话。嗯，那么让我看看。

Let me know when you pass it over to me. Oh, it's there you go. it it's so right here it's um so Unreal Engine for those that are not familiar it's like a Unity um Unity platform that helps kind of uh design and kind of create your own game or the design process of a game. Obviously there's other stuff but the main product um is is this the design of the game.

你递给我的时候告诉我一声。哦，好了，给你。它——就在这儿，它——嗯，所以 Unreal Engine，对于那些不熟悉的人来说，它就像一个 Unity，嗯 Unity 平台，帮助你呃设计并呃创建你自己的游戏，或者说游戏的设计过程。显然还有别的东西，但主要产品，嗯，就是这个——游戏的设计。

And here on the right you actually have like kind of a tab open and it's it's a person prompting what they want Unreal Engine to do, right? And I'm pretty sure it's actually an agent uh doing it. It's like now we like to draw two splines that will become the highway and then AI goes and does this, right? So I do think eventually the world we're going to human interaction with software is going to be completely different.

然后在右边你实际上有一个，有点像打开的一个标签页，它——它是一个人在提示他们想让 Unreal Engine 做什么，对吧？而且我很确定它实际上是一个 agent 在做。它就像是现在我们想画两条样条线，它们会变成那条高速公路，然后 AI 就去把这个做了，对吧？所以我确实认为最终这个世界——我们人类跟软件的交互将会完全不同。

Humans are going to interact with software a lot less. Um but AI agents and this is something Jensen has mentioned AI agents are going to be the ones that are going to be doing all the stuff in that software application. Uh so while maybe users and and and eventually would be like oh are people actually even using this software anymore which might create kind of like a negative press towards the uh towards software names in the back end the amount of AI agents or whatever has increased usage and who knows maybe does every AI agent you're working need their own license what does the consumption price model uh need for that do you have a team of collaboration and team of AI agents and a team of of subscriptions for those AI agents um the

人类跟软件的交互会少得多。嗯，但是 AI agent——而且这是 Jensen 提到过的一件事——AI agent 将会是那些在那个软件应用里做所有事情的角色。呃，所以虽然也许用户们——而且——而且最终会变成像是，哦，人们现在还真的在用这个软件吗，这可能会制造一种对软件股的负面舆论，但在后端，AI agent 的数量或者别的什么增加了使用量，而且谁知道呢，也许每一个你在用的 AI agent 都需要它们自己的授权，那个消费定价模型对此需要什么样子？你有没有一个协作团队、一个 AI agent 团队，再有一个给那些 AI agent 用的订阅团队？嗯，这个——

monet itization is going to be interesting to see. Um, but but I think this is kind of like at least the future of what we're going to be in in in the software industry.

商业化将会很有意思看它怎么发展。嗯，但是——但我觉得这有点像，至少是我们将要在软件行业里所处的那个未来。

Yeah. And and uh I'm just staring at that uh video wondering why I'm waiting so long on GTA 6. But um you know I also think that even as potentially the open-source or the lower-end models that potentially open AI or you know the Gemini flashes of the world that are trying to address some of the the the the cost cutting concerns that people have. I think that it drives so much more demand because I'm not seeing anyone anyone who has a level of creativity.

是啊。而且——而且，呃，我就盯着那个视频，在想我为什么还要在 GTA 6 上等这么久。但是嗯你知道我也觉得，即便是潜在的开源模型，或者那些较低端的模型，那些潜在的——OpenAI 的，或者你知道全世界的那些 Gemini Flash，它们正试图解决人们担心的一些成本削减问题。我觉得它反而会驱动多得多的需求，因为我没看到任何一个有点创造力的人——任何人。

These are just, you know, the best paint brushes in the world that the these allow people to be even more creative. And if you can end up cutting down cost, I think it actually allows people to open up and be more creative with their ideas. I've seen so many of these engineers and developers go on, you know, 12, 13 hour binges of just vibe coding things into existence.

这些就只是，你知道，全世界最好的画笔，这些东西让人们能更有创造力。而且如果你最终能把成本降下来，我觉得它实际上让人们能放开手脚，对自己的想法更有创造力。我见过太多这样的工程师和开发者上来就，你知道，连续 12、13 个小时地嗨翻，纯靠 vibe coding 把东西凭空写出来。

as the as the Frontier models get better, the concern is that, you know, Fable 5 or something like this is too expensive uh to use for 13 hours straight, but potentially the Neotron 3 Ultra of the world that end up coming in will be very cost effective and also get smarter over time. Um, that's where I think it's really interesting is there's ways to play this where you're benefiting from just overall token use in general.

随着——随着前沿模型变得越来越好，担忧在于，你知道，Fable 5 或者诸如此类的东西太贵了，呃，没法连续用 13 个小时，但潜在的——全世界那些最终会出现的 Nemotron 3 Ultra 会非常具有成本效益，而且还会随着时间变得更聪明。嗯，那就是我觉得真正有意思的地方——有一些玩法是你能从整体上的 token 使用量本身受益。

And you don't have to pick OpenAI or Enthropic or something like this. You can pick whether it's the chip layer, whether it's the memory layer, whether it's the networking or the optics like the the the the co-ackage optics or the power like the energy layer. there's sort of that five layer cake of investment here and there's a

而且你不用去挑 OpenAI 还是 Anthropic 或者诸如此类的。你可以挑，不管是芯片层、是内存层、是网络层，还是光学层，比如那个——那个共封装光学，或者电力——比如能源层。这里有点像有一个五层蛋糕的投资机会，而且有一个——

ton of opportunity in that. I'm curious to you where you see some of the biggest bottlenecks and uh that potentially have not been addressed by the market. Uh addressed by the market um I think a lot has right I think we we understand a lot of the shortages like you mentioned that the and and I one thing that I like Tanner is that you mentioned we don't really have to follow every single shortage.

这里面有大量的机会。我很好奇,在你看来,当前最大的一些瓶颈在哪里,呃,而且这些瓶颈可能还没有被市场充分定价。呃,被市场定价过了——我觉得很多东西已经被定价了,对吧?我觉得我们已经理解了很多短缺,就像你提到的那种,而且我有一点很喜欢,Tanner,就是你提到我们其实不必去追逐每一个单独的短缺。

We could pick our own shortage and just focus on that industry, right? That's one thing that I feel like sometimes investors get like FOMO. It's like, "Oh man, I invested in this shortage, but maybe this shortage is getting the price action right now." And then it's like sometimes it's just be patient. You found a shortage. Um, and see how it plays out from there. Uh, to me, I mean, power obviously is a big one.

我们可以挑选属于我们自己的那个短缺,然后就专注在那个行业上,对吧?这是一点,我感觉投资者有时候会有那种 FOMO(错失恐惧)。就像,"哦天哪,我投了这个短缺,但也许现在是另一个短缺在走价格行情。" 然后就会想,有时候你只要耐心一点就好。你已经找到了一个短缺。嗯,然后看它从那里如何演变下去。呃,对我来说,我是说,电力显然是其中一个很大的瓶颈。

Um and and that to me is why I'm very crucial in NeoCloud's players and within the Neocloud players to both have active power, which I think is very important, and then some form of contracted power in the future. Um in the I I I don't I personally don't follow the optics space too much, but it's one I'm trying to learn more about. That one's one on on the back end that that that I put kind of on on on later learning.

嗯,而且这对我来说就是为什么我非常看重 NeoCloud 这类玩家,而且在这些 NeoCloud 玩家里面,既要有现成可用的电力——我认为这非常重要——然后未来还要有某种形式的合约电力。嗯,在那个——我,我个人不太怎么关注 optics(光通信)这个领域,但这是我正在努力想多了解的一个领域。那个领域是在后端的一个,是那种我把它放到稍后再学习的范畴里。

Um but the other one is more advanced packaging, right? advanced packaging is is very critical for a lot of things for HBM uh for AI accelerators uh when we're kind of connecting all these chips and trying to put them all closer together with this kind of triplet stacking uh solution and semiconductor equipment players have done really good with this uh uh there's been a lot of players um anything in the in in in the supply chain in the equipment uh testing right air test system was one of my favorite plays um because just the testing of chips if you need increased yields.

嗯,但另外一个更多是 advanced packaging(先进封装),对吧?advanced packaging 对很多东西都非常关键,对 HBM、呃对 AI accelerator(AI 加速器)都很关键,当我们要把所有这些芯片连接起来、并试图用这种三联堆叠(triplet stacking)的方案把它们都放得更近的时候。而半导体设备厂商在这块做得真的很好,呃呃,有很多玩家,嗯,供应链里、设备里的任何东西,呃 testing(测试)——air test system(空中测试系统)曾是我最喜欢的标的之一,嗯,因为芯片的测试,如果你需要提高 yield(良率)的话。

That's where things happen. Uh so, uh supply chain, there's a lot of different names here. I I sometimes I don't want to say some names because they tend to be under a billion dollar market cap. Um but, um I I that's one I like right now. Uh the advanced packaging play. Uh but like you mentioned in in optics, in optics you can play in so many different avenues.

那正是事情发生的地方。呃,所以,呃供应链里,这里有很多不同的名字。我有时候不太想说出某些名字,因为它们的市值往往不到十亿美元。嗯,但是,嗯,我,这是我现在很喜欢的一个。呃,就是 advanced packaging(先进封装)这个标的。呃,但就像你提到的 optics(光通信)里,在 optics 里你可以从非常多不同的途径切入。

You can play it in the one who builds the whole modular solution. If you're you're you want the whole product, there might be companies that just create the wafers that are needed for for for for optics or just the laser sales or stuff like that. So within each industry um you can a person could spend weeks just researching uh in that space. Uh so the ones I really like the most I think are are the NeoClouds that that's that power supply um and and just actually having that active power and that compute available.

你可以投那个做出整套模块化方案的厂商。如果你想要的是完整的产品。也可能有些公司只做 optics 所需要的那些 wafer(晶圆),或者只做激光器销售之类的东西。所以在每一个行业里,嗯,一个人可以花上好几周时间就只是在那个领域里做研究。呃,所以我真正最喜欢的那些,我觉得是 NeoCloud,就是那个——电力供应,嗯,以及真正拥有那个现成可用的电力和可用的算力(compute)。

uh because I think at the end of the day that's the one that's going to be the easiest to see that monetization happen throughout

呃,因为我觉得归根结底,这一个是最容易看到 monetization(变现)真正发生的那一个,贯穿始终

the the whole space. Really quick, um we've got a few minutes to the close here. I want to quickly go over uh Micron's um expectations. So, we can talk about uh Wall Street's expectations here in a second, but I just want to help visualize what the own company has said that they are expecting. So, this is their uh fiscal quarter 3, but it's essentially um you know, their Q1 or whatever.

整个这块领域。很快地，嗯，我们离收盘还有几分钟。我想快速过一下，呃，美光的，嗯，预期。所以，我们待会儿可以聊一下，呃，华尔街的预期，但我先想帮大家直观看一下公司自己说的他们预期是多少。所以这是他们的，呃，财年第三季度（fiscal quarter 3），但其实，嗯，你懂的，相当于他们的 Q1 之类的。

I think it's off by a month. Regardless, 33.5 off by a month. Regardless, 33.5 off by a month. Regardless, 33.5 billion in revenue plus or minus 750 million and gross margins of 81%. I almost said 71% because it's hard for me to say 80 whenever it comes to gross margin in any business. Um diluted EPS of $19.15 plus or -40. To help visualize that, this is what this looks like.

我觉得它差了一个月。不管怎样，335——差了一个月。不管怎样，335——差了一个月。不管怎样，335 亿营收，上下浮动 7.5 亿，毛利率 81%。我差点说成 71%，因为对我来说，任何生意一提到毛利率，要说出 80 这个数我都觉得很难。嗯，摊薄 EPS（diluted EPS）19.15 美元，上下浮动 0.40。为了帮大家直观看一下，这看起来就是这个样子。

By the way, market closes in just 50 seconds. We'll be on that in a second. Micron's total gross profit is looking to bring in over roughly 41 billion. that 81% gross margin shows a huge spike up because you're you're you're you're seeing two S-curves happen at once. The or or two benefits happening at once. So you're seeing the revenue growth and then you're seeing the margin expansion on top of that which is leading the gross profit to really accelerate.

顺便说一句，市场还有 50 秒就收盘了。我们待会儿就盯着那个。美光的总毛利预计将带来大约超过 410 亿。那 81% 的毛利率显示出一个巨大的飙升，因为你看到的是两条 S 曲线同时发生。或者说，是两个利好同时发生。所以你既看到了营收增长，又看到了在此之上的利润率扩张，这导致总毛利真的在加速。

And then on top of this, look at the speed in which they've brought up their earnings per share. You know, you can essentially take that would be those numbers would be somewhere around that 1,000% year-over-year growth. I think that a little bit over a thousand. I think that's crazy.

然后在这之上，看看他们把每股收益拉升上来的速度。你懂的，你基本上可以把那些数字算出来，那些数字大概会在 1000% 同比（year-over-year）增长上下。我觉得是略微超过一千。我觉得这太疯狂了。

That is insane. Yeah. You're practically taking August, November, and February's quarter, stacking them all up, and then you're getting somewhere near this quarter. So, stacking the last nine months into the into these three-month uh space. So that is what we're looking for on um their side. As for Wall Street, they're expecting $35 billion in revenue and $2020 in EPS.

那简直离谱。是啊。你实际上是把八月、十一月和二月那几个季度全堆叠在一起，然后你才差不多能凑到这个季度。所以，把过去九个月堆进这，呃，三个月的，呃，这个区间里。所以这就是我们在，嗯，他们这边期待看到的。至于华尔街，他们预期营收 350 亿，EPS 20.20 美元。

So just to put that into perspective, 33.5 billion. We're expecting 35 billion. So $1.5 billion beat already. And then 1915 to $20.20. By the way, the market is closed. I don't have a bell for you guys. my water bottle. There you go. Okay, Belle, let's go ahead and find Micron.

所以就放到这个角度看一下，335 亿。我们预期 350 亿。所以已经是 15 亿的超预期（beat）了。然后从 19.15 到 20.20 美元。顺便说一句，市场已经收盘了。我没有铃铛给你们。我的水瓶。给你们，就这样。好，铃响了，咱们去找一下美光。

Do do you I have the guidance numbers too of what Wall Street is expecting if if if or do you have them, Tanner? For Micron. Yeah, that was I have it as 35 billion and $20.

你——你有没有，我这里也有华尔街预期的指引（guidance）数字，如果——如果——如果，还是说你有，Tanner？美光的。是的，那就是——我这里记的是 350 亿和 20 美元。

Sorry. For for for next quarter, the guidance they'll give for next quarter. Oh, no, no, no. I I don't have that. Go ahead. Yeah. Yeah. So for for next quarter the guidance they expect revenue to be north of $42 billion. Um so an extra $7 billion and on a year-over-year growth rate that would be like 750% plus uh on on oh sorry 275% on on revenue. And for earnings per share they expect $24.80.

抱歉。是下——下个季度的，他们会给出的下个季度指引（guidance）。哦，不不不。我——我没有那个。你来说吧。好。好。那么下——下个季度，他们预期的指引是营收会超过 420 亿美元。嗯，所以是多出来的 70 亿，按同比（year-over-year）增长率算的话，那大概会是 750% 多，呃，在——在——哦抱歉，是 275% 的营收增长。然后每股收益方面，他们预期 24.80 美元。

Um and that

嗯，而且那

would be about a 767 micron earnings are out. Oh my gosh dude. They beat revenue by 16%. It wasn't 35 billion, it was 41.45 billion in revenue this quarter. And then EBS instead of $20. Instead of $19, it was $25.11 beat by 21%.

得有大概 767 微米吧——财报出来了。我的天哪，老兄。营收超预期 16%。不是 350 亿，这个季度营收是 414.5 亿。然后 EPS 不是 20 美元，不是 19 美元，是 25.11 美元，超预期 21%。

Wait, what was earnings? Can Can you beat that? 41.45 billion in revenue. Yeah. $2511 in EPS. That is 25. That's like multiple years of their earnings stacked into one quarter. Where's Micron stock? Why Why are Why am I looking at air test systems right now? I'm going to freak out.

等等，盈利是多少来着？你——你能接受得了吗？营收 414.5 亿。对。EPS 25.11 美元。那可是 25。这相当于把好几年的盈利塞进了一个季度。美光的股价在哪儿？为什么——为什么我现在在看 Aehr Test Systems？我要疯了。

It operating cash flow $25 billion. It's wild. What are they going to do with all this cash? because of the um chips act, they can't do buybacks and they can't I don't think they can do much dividend raise um if they're receiving money from from the chips act. So, what are they going to be doing with all this money?

经营性现金流 250 亿美元。太疯狂了。他们要拿这么多现金干嘛？因为那个嗯 CHIPS 法案，他们不能回购，而且我觉得——如果他们在拿 CHIPS 法案的钱，他们也没法怎么提高分红。所以，他们要拿这么多钱干嘛呢？

I'm guidance. Holy smokes. Guidance is crazy. You got guidance? Yeah. Holy. Is it on their page? Revenue for quarter 4 is $50 billion. That's $5 billion above Wall Street's expectations. And for earnings per share, $30.73.

我——指引。我的老天。指引太疯狂了。你拿到指引了？对。我的天。在他们页面上吗？第四季度营收 500 亿美元。比华尔街预期高出 50 亿美元。每股收益是 30.73 美元。

That's so unbelievable, guys. I wonder how Go ahead. I'm curious to see how how much their how much DM increased. like how much did it's most likely going to be another quarter where price mainly grew through um price increase and not necessarily much more capacity added. Um do not tell your wife that you did not invest in this company. She will leave you.

太难以置信了，各位。我想知道——你先说。我很好奇他们的——他们的 DM 涨了多少。比如涨了多少——很可能又是一个主要靠嗯涨价驱动增长、而产能并没有增加太多的季度。嗯，千万别告诉你老婆你没投这家公司。她会离开你的。

I think I think she's doing fine. Is unreal. Let's see. It's so people in the chat saying priced in. You cannot price you cannot price this in. Yeah, that's insane. I don't think you I like that alone I I mean but it only moved it's only moving 3% after hours 4% 5% right 5%. I don't know there's there has to be some strong of price then I mean a a move like this right a report like this is crazy right it's extremely crazy like I don't I I don't think Nvidia ever did a move like this right like in forms of of of of kind of these massive beats they don't want me getting the numbers you don't have them dude it's I the site is dosing me right now can you send it to

我觉得——我觉得她过得挺好的。这太离谱了。我们看看。所以聊天区里有人说已被定价了。你不可能把——你不可能把这个提前定价进去。对，太疯狂了。我觉得你不——光这一点我——我是说，但它只是涨了——盘后只涨了 3%、4%、5%，对吧，5%。我不知道，肯定有某种很强的——那就有点定价了，我是说，这样一次波动，对吧——这样一份财报简直疯了，对吧，极其疯狂，我——我觉得英伟达从来没有过这样的波动，对吧，就这种巨大超预期的形式，他们不想让我拿到那些数字——你没有那些数字，老兄，这——这网站现在把我搞崩了，你能发给——

me uh the actual presentation or something over you want me to PDF send the PDF? Yeah. Yeah. Well, let me download this. Micron Technologies Inc. said, "Unfortunately, earnings disappointed. Revenue came in slightly below expectations and AI spending was lower than anticipated. Today's news is negative. Better days ahead."

——我吗，呃，那份实际的演示材料之类的发过来。你想让我把 PDF——发那个 PDF？对。对。好，我下载一下。美光科技公司说："不幸的是，盈利令人失望。营收略低于预期，AI 支出低于预期。今天的消息是负面的。未来会更好。"

Micron CEO, they had tweet they had said this at 359. Uh little jokester in chat. Oh. Um, wait. How can I send something via chat? Core data core data center revenue just through private chat in in StreamYard.

美光 CEO，他们有条推——他们在 3 点 59 发了这个。呃，聊天区里有个小搞笑的人。哦。嗯，等等。我怎么通过聊天发东西？核心数据——核心数据中心营收——就直接通过 StreamYard 里的私聊发吧。

Yeah, but can I attach a file here? I can't. Not a file. Send me the link. Oh. Oh, okay. But I thought you were You got the hard PDF. Yeah. Yeah. There you go.

对，但我能在这儿附一个文件吗？我不行。不能传文件。把链接发给我。哦。哦，好的。可我以为你——你拿到了那份硬 PDF。对。对。给你。

I get it in a in a paper package. I don't know how to scan it and send it over to you. Um, and let me like Well, that was one of That was the press.

我是拿到了一份纸质的包装件。我不知道怎么把它扫描了发给你。嗯，让我——好吧，那是其中——那是新闻稿。

Can you share your screen? It's not letting me uh view. Hold on. But, um, I can't get the press. I can't get the um I can't get the presentation. Let me see if I can pull it up here. There we go. All right. Let's share screen. Sharing screen. And Neil, if you're watching, oh my gosh, right. We're over 1100 now. up 6.5% in the after hours.

你能共享一下你的屏幕吗？它不让我——查看。等一下。但是，嗯，我拿不到那份新闻稿。我拿不到那个嗯——我拿不到那份演示材料。让我看看能不能在这儿把它调出来。好了。好的。我们来共享屏幕。共享屏幕中。Neil，如果你在看的话，我的天哪，对吧。我们现在超过 1100 了。盘后涨了 6.5%。

All right. Um, data center revenue exceeded 25 billion. Uh, I'm curious to see pricing. Do you mind if I just scroll down to pricing? Yeah, do it. Do it. Uh, scroll in a little if you can too.

好的。嗯，数据中心营收超过了 250 亿。呃，我很好奇定价。你介意我直接往下滚到定价那部分吗？好，滚吧。滚吧。呃，可以的话也放大一点。

Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I'm cur I want to read about that, too. That that's something I saw something there. But I I think pricing is is what I'm

对。对。好。我很好——我想读读那个。那——我看到那里有点东西。但我——我觉得定价才是我——

really really curious about. 84.9%. To me, this is the crazy part, right? It's there was no extra bit shipments. Bit shipments were up low single digits. The main reason for this revenue jump again was average selling price.

我真的真的很好奇。84.9%。对我来说,这才是疯狂的部分,对吧?其实并没有额外的 bit 出货(bit shipments)。bit 出货只涨了个位数。这次营收暴涨的主要原因,还是均价(ASP)。

Yeah. Isn't that crazy? is like you're you're able to you know what you got to pay me almost almost um that 1.6x more than you just did last quarter just because just because Right.

是啊。这难道不疯狂吗?就像你能够——你知道你得付给我几乎、几乎,嗯,比你上个季度刚付的还要多 1.6 倍,就因为、就因为,对吧。

Oh my gosh. Um and and Fern Nan as well. Uh let's see. Uh there was another thing that I wanted to kind of look at. They talked a little bit about long-term contracts which I know a lot of investors are curious about. Um, let's go and then we can probably look at their uh supply there. But I saw long-term contracts. Sorry people. All right, here we go.

我的天哪。嗯,还有 Fern Nan 也是。呃,我们看看。呃,还有另一件事我想看一下。他们稍微聊了一点长期协议(long-term contracts),我知道很多投资者对这个很好奇。嗯,我们先看这个,然后我们大概可以看一下他们的供给那块。但我看到了长期协议。抱歉各位。好,我们开始。

Um, so for what are uh strategic customer agreements, 14 of 16 that we have signed have we renew at minimum price per our contracts. So, so this is a hundred billion over the remaining agreed term.

嗯,所以这个叫战略客户协议(strategic customer agreements),我们已经签的 16 份里有 14 份,会按我们合同里的下限价(minimum price/floor)来续约。所以、所以这在剩余约定期限内是一千亿(a hundred billion)。

So, it seems like these contracts have both a ceiling and a I'm going to guess a ceiling. I don't they didn't they didn't mention here. I don't think they're going to mention a ceiling. Um, but to me, if they're putting a form of floor, which is what they 14 have a floor, I'm going to guess they also have a ceiling, right? If you're want me to make sure to pay you a minimum of this, you have to make sure that I only pay you a maximum of this at the same time.

所以,看起来这些合同既有一个上限价(ceiling),我猜也有一个——上限价。我不——他们没有、他们这里没提到。我觉得他们不会提上限价。嗯,但对我来说,如果他们放了某种形式的下限(floor),也就是这 14 份有 floor 的,我猜他们也有一个上限价(ceiling),对吧?如果你要我保证至少付给你这么多,那你也得保证我最多只付给你这么多,这两个是同时的。

Um, they've also received $22 billion in cash deposit related to those uh strategic commitments. Wow. Yeah. Wow. Stock is up 7.6% in the after hours. This is completely opposite of what we saw last quarter. that broke the trend, you know, last quarter. Go ahead.

嗯,他们还收到了 220 亿美元(22 billion)的现金押金(cash deposit),跟那些战略承诺有关。哇。是啊。哇。股票盘后(after hours)涨了 7.6%。这跟我们上个季度看到的完全相反。上个季度打破了那个趋势,你知道的。你说吧。

Are AI stocks, Dave? Like, how are other stocks rel That's a good question. Intel's up 2.3%. ASML's up 2% in the after hours. Uh, Taiwan Semi's up 1.1. Pterodine's up 1.3. Dude, this this brought back the AI market. That's a good question, Jose.

是 AI 股吗,Dave?比如,其他股票相对——这是个好问题。Intel 涨了 2.3%。ASML 盘后涨了 2%。呃,台积电(Taiwan Semi)涨了 1.1。Teradyne 涨了 1.3。老兄,这、这把 AI 市场又带回来了。这是个好问题,Jose。

So, let's take a look at the AI stocks. So, we've got Coherent up 1.4%, 4% momentum up 1.2 AMD is up 2% Micron's up 9 now 1143 will we go for an all-time high the all-time high in this company is $1,213.56 I'll keep an eye on that. It looks like we're headed towards up 10% though. SanDisk is up 6% on this news. $2,000 again. ARM up 3.7 headed towards 4%.

那我们来看一下 AI 股。我们看到 Coherent 涨了 1.4%,Marvell 涨了 1.2,AMD 涨了 2%,Micron(美光)现在涨了 9,到 1143,我们会冲历史新高吗——这家公司的历史新高是 1213.56 美元,我会盯着这个。看起来我们朝着涨 10% 去了。SanDisk 因为这个消息涨了 6%,又到 2000 了。ARM 涨 3.7,朝着 4% 去。

Nebius is up 4.3% on this news. Iron's up 2.75. You're right. Micron saved the day. They're the new Nvidia. They're the new Nvidia. I I mean I I'm looking at the market outlook here. So they now expect supply demand conditions for both DM and NAN to remain tight beyond calendar 2027. I I this company had I I think they had a May conference. I forget what Wolf I think was the the research firm.

Nebius 因为这个消息涨了 4.3%。Iren 涨了 2.75。你说得对。Micron 救场了。他们就是新的 Nvidia。他们就是新的 Nvidia。我——我是说,我在看这里的市场展望。所以他们现在预期 DRAM 和 NAND 的供需(supply demand)状况会持续紧张(tight)到 2027 日历年之后。我——这家公司,我想他们有个五月的会议。我忘了,我想是 Wolf——我想那家研究机构是。

Um but um they didn't really talk too much about 2027. They were just still very focused on 2026. Um but it seems like now they believe this tightness happens till 2027. And I mean this it gets me happy for the AI market because again at the same time any form of shortage or or constraint make sure that there's not a open wallet of everything and it means that the cycle can last a lot longer.

嗯,但是嗯他们当时其实没怎么聊 2027。他们还是非常聚焦在 2026。嗯,但现在看起来他们相信这种紧张(tightness)会持续到 2027。我是说,这让我为 AI 市场感到高兴,因为同样地,任何形式的短缺或者约束(constraint),都确保了不会出现"什么都敞开供应"的局面,这意味着这个周期可以持续更久。

Uh because of these shortages, Nvidia won't be able to meet its all all its demand. Uh Rocom won't be able to meet all its demand. So 2027 seems like it's good for AI. 2028 is probably going to be great for AI because it takes time to build this. TSM is probably going to have a great few years as well. though. Um I I top level very good in my opinion for for the whole industry.

呃,因为这些短缺,Nvidia 没法满足它全部的需求。呃 Broadcom 没法满足它全部的需求。所以 2027 对 AI 来说看起来不错。2028 对 AI 来说大概会非常棒,因为建这些东西需要时间。台积电(TSM)接下来几年大概也会非常好。不过嗯,我——总体来看,在我看来对整个行业都非常好。

Dude, I I just got to say um the forward guidance like you said 50 billion in revenue, $30 of EPS by the like that alone is insane. 86% gross margins though continuing to climb. I've never seen anything like this in the last 10 years of my investing career. This is this the the strongest most highest pricing power bottleneck I've ever seen in history. Does anything even come close to this?

老兄,我——我得说,嗯,前瞻指引,就像你说的 500 亿美元营收、到那时候每股收益(EPS)30 美元,光这一点就很疯狂了。86% 的毛利率(gross margins)还在继续往上爬。我在我投资生涯的过去 10 年里从没见过这样的东西。这是我历史上见过的最强、定价权(pricing power)最高的瓶颈。有什么东西能跟这个沾边吗?

Cuz cuz there's been some pretty big um you know pricing power stocks. This is a $1 trillion business. This is $1.1 trillion, up 10% on the fact that they just destroyed earnings by multiple double digits after Wall Street knew that it was going to be a big surprise. You they said they were going to come in at $19.15 at EPS and they ended up delivering $2511.

因为、因为是有过一些挺大的、你知道的有定价权的股票。这是一门一万亿美元的生意。这是 1.1 万亿,涨了 10%,就因为他们刚刚把盈利打爆了好几个两位数——而且这是在华尔街已经知道会有大惊喜之后。你——他们说他们 EPS 会落在 19.15,结果他们最后交出了 2511(注:口误,应指 25.11)。

There is a successful company in between that guide and reality. So I I mean you got you got to expect that these numbers are are also somewhat conservative on their end, right? I mean if if if it was a huge beat already on this quarter based on what they guided and they already gave us some crazy numbers. I think for them they're like, "Yeah, this is crazy, but we're actually being a bit conservative in in what we see."

在那个指引和现实之间,是有一家成功的公司的。所以我——我是说你得预期,这些数字在他们那边其实也算有点保守,对吧?我是说,如果、如果这个季度基于他们的指引已经是一次巨大的超预期,而且他们已经给了我们一些疯狂的数字。我觉得对他们来说就像是,"是的,这很疯狂,但我们在我们看到的东西上其实还有点保守。"

Um you have to ask yourself you know not just for this is the interesting part about artificial intelligence running not just the memory names and and the constraint here. What this shows you is that the customers who are buying from Micron see a ton of demand.

嗯,你得问自己,你知道,不只是为了这个——这是人工智能(artificial intelligence)运转中有意思的部分——不只是这些内存(memory)的名字和这里的约束。这显示给你的是,那些从 Micron 买东西的客户,看到了海量的需求。

Mhm. And I constantly ask myself what is the total addressable market of intelligence? How it right? So, um I I I constantly I'm wondering I'm like when does this stop? When does the build when do we have enough? And I'm just curious if there if there isn't enough.

嗯哼。我不断地问自己,智能(intelligence)的总可寻址市场(total addressable market/TAM)是多大?它怎么——对吧?所以,嗯,我——我不断地在想,我就想,这什么时候会停?这种建设——我们什么时候才算够了?我就是很好奇,会不会其实永远不够。

I mean because just like there's so many questions left unanswered or so many problems left unanswered like it's a treatment for this drug, for this type of cancer, for this type of sickness. just in the healthcare industry the level of intelligence that you need to continue to compute to find like in theory let's just say and this is kind of why I enjoy investing in the semiconductor and tech industry is because you have to in my opinion put a little bit of imagination of what is right it's not just like the numbers it's not just the financials you have to also kind of have some imagination of where tech can go and it's like if in theory you want to solve every single type of disease out there or sickness how much compute do you

我是说,因为就像还有那么多没回答的问题、那么多没解决的问题,比如对这种药的一种治疗、对这种癌症、对这种疾病。光是在医疗行业,你需要持续算出来的智能水平,要去找到——理论上,我们就这么说吧,这也有点是我喜欢投资半导体和科技行业的原因,因为在我看来,你得放进去一点点想象力,去想什么是——对吧?不只是数字,不只是财报,你还得有点想象力去想科技能走到哪。就好比,理论上如果你想解决世上每一种疾病或病症,你需要多少算力(compute)才能——

need to be able to do that, right? And and and that's just in the healthcare industry. There's probably so many different problems in simulations, um in in the food industry, in the industrial industry, in the automotive industry, in the robotic space, and it's like in the entertainment. So, yeah, I'm I'm happy.

——才能做到那个,对吧?而且、而且这还只是医疗行业。在模拟仿真里、嗯在食品行业、在工业行业、在汽车行业、在机器人领域,大概还有那么多不同的问题,还有比如娱乐业。所以,是的,我——我很高兴。

Yeah. By the way, guys, we won't have to wait long for the earnings call. Uh Sanjay will be talking at 4:30. So a little bit of an earlier earnings call and that's really helpful. Honestly, that should be the standard. I love not having to wait a full hour till five. Yes, it's insane.

对了,顺便说一句各位,我们不用等很久就能听到财报电话会(earnings call)。呃 Sanjay 会在 4:30 讲话。所以是个稍微早一点的财报电话会,这真的很有帮助。说实话,这应该成为标准。我超喜欢不用整整等一个小时到五点。是的,这太离谱了。

Um I was just looking through through some of the numbers still here. Uh Tanner, they did mention that they have a I I don't I don't know if this is old news. Um but can I share your screen right now? Yeah, I think you should be able to. Let me know if it's Yeah, it's up there.

嗯,我刚还在翻这里的一些数字。呃 Tanner,他们确实提到他们有一个——我不、我不知道这是不是旧消息。嗯,但我现在能分享你的屏幕吗?可以,我觉得你应该能。告诉我是不是——对,上去了。

Um, but but they mentioned they announced a multi-year EUV agreement with ASML. Um, and one thing that we have seen is memories players have been a little bit hesitant in moving into like the EUV space. Um, but it just kind of showcases with the current demand, the current stuff that's uh that's something that's progressing and ASML has talked about that during their previous earnings where they're seeing more memory players kind of become more um accepting of of kind of the the advanced solutions.

嗯,但是、但是他们提到,他们宣布了跟 ASML 的一项多年期 EUV 协议。嗯,我们一直看到的一件事是,内存厂商在进入比如 EUV 这个领域上一直有点犹豫。嗯,但这恰好表明了,以当前的需求、当前的这些东西,这是个正在推进的事,而 ASML 在他们之前的财报里也聊过这个,他们看到越来越多内存厂商开始变得更——嗯更接受这些先进的解决方案。

Uh, but I thought that was pretty a pretty

呃,但我觉得那挺——挺

cool note there. Um, and do you think Micron two trillion or what? I don't know. I I mean if to me if Micron 2 trillion why would TSMC stay at two trillion you know you know I agree and same thing with ASML but the problem is and you tell me this is the part I don't understand about TSMC and and ASML they don't price to the moat that they actually have like Nvidia very very aggressive pricing Micron very aggressive pricing I'm surprised knowing how how much wafer capacity is a bottleneck.

不错的注脚。嗯,那你觉得 Micron 会到两万亿吗,还是怎样?我不知道。我的意思是,对我来说,如果 Micron 能两万亿,那 TSMC 凭什么还停在两万亿?你懂的,你懂的。我同意,ASML 也一样。但问题是——你来告诉我,这是我对 TSMC 和 ASML 不理解的地方——它们并没有按自己实际拥有的护城河来定价。比如 Nvidia 定价非常非常激进,Micron 定价也非常激进。我很意外,毕竟我知道晶圆产能是多大的瓶颈。

You it's very very hard to find foundaries outside of TSMC that can do what they do. That's extremely rare. But they have relatively like respectful margins. Mhm. Why are they not pricing to 70% gross margins?

你要在 TSMC 之外找到能做它们所做之事的代工厂,是非常非常难的。那极其罕见。但它们的毛利率相对来说算是……挺客气的。嗯。它们为什么不按 70% 的毛利率来定价?

I They're just nice. They are just nice. Same with ASML. You know, you need that American ability to gouge your your customers eyes out. Yeah. But I I I also think the memory company has just has a a a payback to do, right? Because I mean in all these cycles like the memory companies have always been left to when pricing was probably crap like all these companies were never going to be like, "Oh, you know what?

我……它们就是人好。它们就是人太好了。ASML 也一样。你懂的,你得有那种美国式的、把客户的眼珠子都抠出来的本事。对。但我我也觉得内存厂只是有一笔账要找补回来,对吧?因为我是说,在所有这些周期里,内存厂总是被晾在一边,在定价烂得不行的时候——这些公司从来不会说:"哦,你知道吗?

Let me pay you a little bit extra because we feel bad for you, right?" Okay. And I think the the memory market has been one of the most commoditized play. So they've been on the other side of the ankle, right? They they they eat dirt, right? At one point it was horrible for them. Um so I think for them it's like, yo, let me take advantage of this while I can.

让我多付你一点钱吧,因为我们替你难过。"对吧?好吧。我觉得内存市场一直是最同质化、最大宗商品化的领域之一。所以它们一直处在脚踝那一侧,对吧?它们它们它们吃土,对吧?曾经有段时间对它们来说糟透了。嗯,所以我觉得对它们来说就是:哟,趁我还能占便宜的时候赶紧占。

Um because I know when it's done, when it's done, um they're going to send me back to to the gutter like I've been uh in the previous cycles. Uh so I I I guess I understand where they're come. Um, I mean TSM is probably the same, but uh they should increase certain margins, right? I mean, if if you have maybe not to Nvidia, not to Nvidia, right?

嗯,因为我知道等这阵子过去,等过去了,嗯,它们又会把我打回到阴沟里去,就像我以前在那些周期里那样。呃,所以我我我想我能理解它们的处境。嗯,我是说 TSMC 大概也一样,但呃它们是该提某些毛利率的,对吧?我是说,如果如果你有……也许别对 Nvidia,别对 Nvidia,对吧?

TSMC, if you're watching this, be nice to to my Nvidia, but everybody else, you could be a little bit a little bit mean, too. I I think Parcal is right, you know, like they want their customers to make money and if they did try to take a big margin, then everyone would think about creating their own boundaries. There's so many people trying to get around the breakthrough that is memory or around the um or sorry try to find new breakthroughs for memory even cerebras I want to talk about cerebras and their use of SRAMM as well but um same thing for Nvidia you know they charge a massive premium and everyone's trying to get around them not many people are trying to recreate a TSMC and cut them off everyone feels very very happy working

TSMC,如果你在看这个,对我的 Nvidia 好点,但对其他所有人,你可以稍微稍微凶一点。我我觉得 Parcal 说得对,你懂的,就是它们想让自己的客户赚到钱,而如果它们真的去拿一个很大的毛利率,那大家就都会琢磨着自建代工厂了。有那么多人想绕过内存这个突破口,或者绕过那个嗯——抱歉,想为内存找到新的突破,甚至 Cerebras 也是,我想聊聊 Cerebras 以及它们对 SRAM 的运用,但嗯,Nvidia 也是同样的情况,你懂的,它们收一个巨大的溢价,所有人都想绕过它们。但没多少人想去重新造一个 TSMC、把它们甩开,所有人都觉得跟 TSMC 合作非常非常愉快。

with TSMC. You know, and so that that does create a longerlasting business. Y but whenever you boil it down to who wins from every single one of these contracts, the Broadcom contracts and you know TPUs, tranium, Nvidia, uh Qualcomm, all of these different ones, and you just go back to your screen's still sharing by the way.

你懂的,所以这确实造就了一门更长久的生意。对,但只要你把这一切归结到——在每一份合同里到底是谁赢,那些 Broadcom 的合同、还有你懂的 TPU、Trainium、Nvidia、呃 Qualcomm,所有这些不同的玩家——你顺着捋回去……顺便说一句你的屏幕还在共享呢。

Oh, thank you. Um but uh what's it called? I I I just think TSMC is the ultimate winner across all of them, but they don't charge a high enough premium to show that big reward whenever it comes to earnings like what Nvidia and Micron are doing. So they're very explosive, but maybe Micron's not going to last uh as long as TSMC or something like this. Yeah, I mean I do think it it's correct of of you you're seeing every players I think Qualcomm just mentioned that they're um in their investor today they're trying to focus on creating a new style of HBM style.

哦,谢谢。嗯,但呃……这叫什么来着?我我我就是觉得 TSMC 是它们所有人当中最终极的赢家,但它们没有收一个足够高的溢价,来在财报上体现出那种巨大的回报,不像 Nvidia 和 Micron 现在这样。所以它们(Nvidia/Micron)非常爆发性,但也许 Micron 不会像 TSMC 那样持续那么久之类的。对,我是说我确实觉得这是对的,你看到每一个玩家——我想 Qualcomm 刚刚就提到它们嗯在今天的投资者活动上,它们想专注于打造一种新风格的 HBM 式的东西。

I didn't really look at it too much. Yeah. Um but it's every player is trying to do that. Not many players are trying to build their own foundry uh except Terra, right? And then you have Intel.

我没太仔细看。对。嗯,但每一个玩家都在试图做那件事。没多少玩家试图自建代工厂,呃除了 Terra,对吧?然后还有 Intel。

Um but but that's not really because of a pricing issue. It's just because they're not able to build out fast enough. Like they just can't build fast enough. But I don't think they'll be able to TSMC manufactury is the same struggle on chip manufacturing. I don't think there's anything different there.

嗯但但那其实不是因为定价问题。只是因为它们没法建得够快。它们就是建不够快。但我不觉得它们能……TSMC 的制造也是同样的挣扎,在芯片制造上。我不觉得那里有什么不一样。

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, um, we have the call up in the next 10 minutes or so. Um, I'm trying to make sure that, uh, fiscal AI Yeah, they don't have the updated numbers just yet. And my thing is still not letting me share. Still saying the site's not reachable, which is driving me crazy. Have you done shift F5? Let me see if I can send you anything here.

对。对。对。好,嗯,我们大概再过 10 分钟左右就有那个电话会了。嗯,我在确认那个,呃,fiscal AI……对,它们还没有更新好的数字。而且我这边还是没法共享。还是说网站打不开,这都快把我逼疯了。你按过 Shift F5 没?让我看看能不能给你发点什么过来。

The forward PE is now five times. Oh, can you imagine running this all the way back up to even eight times or something like this? That's got huge upside there. But I I feel like there if you kind of continue to see a price increase in this, you have to see a a whole repricing in everything in the semiconductor industry.

前瞻市盈率现在是五倍。哦,你能想象把它一路推回到哪怕八倍之类的吗?那有巨大的上行空间。但我我感觉如果你这边继续看到这个价格往上涨,你就得看到整个半导体行业的一次彻底重新定价。

Yeah. Like if this becomes like I said like we were talking about $2 trillion play, why wouldn't you repric everything else even higher? Like does Nvid Micron at two trillion does it does Nvidia 10 trillion really seem that crazy? If Micron at two trillion, does Nvidia at 10 trillion sound crazy?

对。比如如果这个变成像我说的,像我们刚才聊的那种两万亿的故事,那你为什么不把其他所有东西也重新定价得更高呢?比如这是不是……Micron 到两万亿,那 Nvidia 到十万亿真的看起来那么疯狂吗?如果 Micron 在两万亿,那 Nvidia 在十万亿听起来疯狂吗?

No. But I don't think that Nvidia should be 10 trillion today. But um I do think that they will be the first company to 10 trillion unless you know Elon merges with Tesla and there's something like this that ends up getting the market really excited. Who knows? I am I'm not surprised if if they become the first 10 trillion dollar company. I'm more surprised if we end up you know doing something that makes uh like like I'm surprised that Nvidia is still around the $200 range even though they constantly are putting up 85% growth.

不。但我不觉得 Nvidia 今天就该是十万亿。不过嗯我确实觉得它们会是第一家到十万亿的公司,除非你懂的 Elon 把 Tesla 合并进来、出现某种这样的事最后把市场搞得特别兴奋。谁知道呢?我……如果它们成为第一家万亿美元……十万亿美元的公司,我不会意外。我更会意外的是,我们最后做出某种事情让……呃就像……我意外的是 Nvidia 居然还在 $200 上下,尽管它们一直在交出 85% 的增长。

So if they have a quarter where margins are a little bit worse or something like this, that's whenever things are going to really come into effect and they're they're going to get hurt. you know, like because if we're holding this company at 200 today, what the heck are we doing if if growth ends up somehow missing or coming in line or something like this? I don't know.

所以如果它们有某一个季度毛利率稍微差一点之类的,那才是事情真正开始起作用的时候,它们它们会受伤。你懂的,因为如果我们今天还按 $200 拿着这家公司,那万一增长最后不知怎么没达标、或者只是符合预期之类的,我们到底在搞什么?我不知道。

What do you think Micron has to say? What is the stock acting right now? What do you like? Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. H how much pricing I mean I don't know how much is expected from here on out. Can you say I mean there's the bulls that say not much is priced in if you have a forward PE ratio of five but um what does it have to say for that multiple expansion to happen right for if you have a forward PE ratio of six like what changes that for the 4P to go to 12 to go to 15 or some of these bulls say why doesn't it trade like a typical semiconductor chip company that trades in in the 25s in the 30s because we don't know what's going to happen whenever

你觉得 Micron 会怎么说?这股票现在表现怎么样?你觉得怎么样?对。对,这是个好点。已已经……我是说我不知道从这儿往后还有多少定价空间。已经……我是说有那种看多的人会说,如果你前瞻市盈率才五倍,那定价里基本没体现多少利好,但嗯,要让那个估值倍数扩张,它得说点什么呢?对吧,如果你前瞻市盈率是六倍,要让前瞻市盈率走到 12、走到 15,得有什么变化?或者像有些看多的人说,它为什么不像一只典型的半导体芯片公司那样、交易在 25 倍、30 倍区间呢?因为我们不知道等

fabs come online in 2027. Yeah, that's like that that that's my concern. You know, bottle, as Jensen said, bottlenecks don't often last longer than 3 years, what happens after that? Fabs come online, not just from Micron, you know.

2027 年那些晶圆厂(fab)上线时会发生什么。对,这就像那……那那就是我担心的。你懂的,瓶颈……正如 Jensen 说的,瓶颈往往持续不超过 3 年,那之后会怎样?fab 上线了,而且不只是 Micron 的,你懂的。

Yeah. For SK, it's not the diamond industry. They don't they don't they don't get to just hold back and sell what they want and you know create false scarcity. There's Samsung, there's SK Highex, there's many other businesses.

对。对 SK 来说,这不是钻石行业。它们不……它们没法就那样把货囤起来、想卖多少卖多少、然后你懂的制造一种虚假的稀缺。这里有 Samsung,有 SK Hynix,还有很多别的厂商。

Um have you taken the I know Semi analysis recently dropped something on the Chinese memory player. Did you take time to read that? I haven't, but if you have maybe a TL DR on it on which one? Sorry. I I think they um Semi analysis recently did something on I think CXMT. I forget what they call it, but it's a Chinese memory player.

嗯,你有没有看……我知道 SemiAnalysis 最近发了点关于那家中国内存厂的东西。你有没有抽时间读那个?我没读,但如果你读了,也许给个 TL;DR,讲的是哪一家?抱歉。我我想它们嗯……SemiAnalysis 最近做了一篇关于,我想是 CXMT 的。我忘了它们怎么叫的了,但那是一家中国内存厂。

No, I've not seen it. Um Okay. Um I'm so thankful that people are posting this thing. We will have the earnings call, although I uh can't seem to get up the website. I'm just going to be listening to it through earnings hub, which is a different app, but we'll hear the call and we'll actually be able to see the stock price on the screen as well. So, don't worry about that.

不,我没看到。嗯。好。嗯,我太感激有人把这东西贴出来了。我们会有这场财报电话会,虽然我呃似乎打不开那个网站。我就准备通过 Earnings Hub 来听,那是另一个 app,但我们会听到这场电话会,而且实际上也能在屏幕上看到股价。所以,别担心那个。

Um, but I can't seem to be able to share the website for some reason. I don't know if I need to like restart my computer or something. I don't know if driving me nuts though.

嗯,但我不知怎么就是没法共享那个网站。我不知道是不是得重启一下电脑之类的。我不知道……不过这真的快把我逼疯了。

I think I can be able Let me see if I can send it to you. Yeah, but you you send me the investors.micron and that didn't work. That's not working. Unless there's like a Q4 link or like one of those that uh Yeah, let me see.

我想我应该能……让我看看能不能发给你。对,但你你给我发的是 investors.micron,那个没打开。那个没用。除非有个什么 Q4 的链接、或者那种呃……对,让我看看。

Or the earnings call thing. Send me the earnings call. This is not Q4. Let me uh this is not from Micron's thing. Let me send it to you real quick here. See if that works for you. Yeah, it does. Okay. So, we'll have the official earnings call. We won't be able to see the stock price, but I'll be updating it in the chat and posting it on the screen.

或者那个财报电话会的东西。把财报电话会发给我。这不是 Q4。让我呃……这不是从 Micron 那边来的。让我快点发给你试试。对,能行。好。所以,我们会有官方的财报电话会。我们没法看到股价,但我会在聊天里更新它、并贴到屏幕上。

Um, some people are saying that their website is down. Maybe that's it. Yeah, I don't There's a refresh page. I clicked the refresh page like they they obviously have a lot of traffic right now.

嗯,有些人说它们的网站宕机了。也许就是这个原因。对,我不……有个刷新页面。我点了那个刷新页面,它们显然现在流量很大。

Uh, Mitt's not joining. He is traveling to Singapore right now. That guy's traveling like no tomorrow. What is a fab? Uh a fab is a fabrication. It's like essentially where they're going to actually be able to manufacture the chips. So, um if you ever hear clean room or any of these terms that are very specific to the chip space, it it's all a little bit different. But a clean room would essentially be like the data center.

呃,Mitt 不来了。他现在正在飞往 Singapore 的路上。那哥们儿出差出得跟不要命似的。fab 是什么?呃 fab 就是 fabrication(晶圆厂)。基本上就是它们实际制造芯片的地方。所以,嗯,如果你听到 clean room(洁净室)或者任何这些非常特定于芯片领域的术语,它它都稍微有点不同。但 clean room 基本上就像数据中心。

the fabrication would be where they build the chips and these sort of things. Um, but there's not enough. They're essentially the factories, right? The factories of these chips, but there's not enough factories to produce the chips right now. And that's why the price is going up so much. So, they're still selling the same amount of chips that they would have been able to sell, but they're not like people are fighting over price.

fabrication 就是它们造芯片之类的地方。嗯,但产能不够。它们基本上就是工厂,对吧?这些芯片的工厂,但现在没有足够的工厂来生产这些芯片。这就是为什么价格涨得这么凶。所以,它们卖的芯片数量还是和它们本来能卖的一样,但并不是说……是人们在抢着出价。

Yeah. I mean, we saw right uh bits and single digits. Yeah. The fabs are extremely extremely hard to build. Micron's up 14%. Nice. That was the actually implied movement, was it? Yeah, it was about 14%. I I I think is what the market was expecting.

对。我是说,我们看到了对吧呃个位数的……对。这些 fab 极其极其难建。Micron 涨了 14%。漂亮。这其实就是隐含波动,是吧?对,大概是 14%。我我我想这就是市场所预期的。

DRAM is running too. I mean, obviously, but it won't just be um Micron that benefits from this. SanDisk is up 12%. Holy smokes. STX um STX is up 12%. Yeah, crazy. Uh about Yeah, almost 10. I got to add this one to the watch list as well. I just created this new watch list. You have to individually add every name. It's driving me nuts. Uh Western Digital as well is up a bunch.

DRAM 也在涨。我是说,显然,但不会只有嗯 Micron 从中受益。SanDisk 涨了 12%。我的天。STX 嗯 STX 涨了 12%。对,疯了。呃大概……对,差不多 10。我得把这只也加到自选列表里。我刚建了这个新的自选列表。你得一个一个地把每个名字加进去。这快把我逼疯了。呃 Western Digital 也涨了一大截。

Um, okay. Let's see. Where is this? They're up 11.5%. SanDisk is up 12 a.5. ASML is up four. Marll is up 4.4%. Micron is up 13.8%. That's incredible, guys. What do you think happens with Capix? Um Tanner here uh cuz last last quarter right not not tap not capex from Micron but capex from the hyperscalers cuz last quarter what we ended up seeing was uh we did see an increase in capex from all the big players and most of them say it was mainly because of the inflation inflation price increase of memory itself.

嗯,好。我们来看看。这在哪儿?它们涨了 11.5%。SanDisk 涨了 12.5。ASML 涨了四。Marvell 涨了 4.4%。Micron 涨了 13.8%。这太不可思议了,各位。你觉得 capex 会怎么样?嗯——这边是 Tanner——呃因为上上个季度,对吧,不不是……不是 Micron 的 capex,而是那些 hyperscaler 的 capex,因为上个季度我们最后看到的是,呃我们确实看到所有大玩家的 capex 都增长了,而它们大多数说这主要是因为内存本身的通胀、价格上涨。

Um, do you think that was warning for what's happening now or do you think they need to go back and increase their capics again for the memory price increase that we're still seeing? And and and do you see is that like who who's leading the pack here? And is this an indication now? like is that capex was that capex growth the indication of this growth that we saw now or is this growth now an indication of what do we expect capex to be uh for the hyperscalers well so the the only thing that would run I don't have the answer what I think um would get you that answer is knowing which companies are doing these fiveyear plus long deals because if they can control their average selling price signing these long-term deals then the

嗯,你觉得那是对现在正在发生之事的一个预警,还是你觉得它们需要回过头去、为我们仍在看到的内存涨价再次提高它们的 capex?而且而且而且你觉得……这就像是谁在领跑?这现在是不是一个信号?就像……那笔 capex,那个 capex 增长,是不是我们现在看到的这波增长的信号;还是说现在这波增长是一个信号,预示我们该期待那些 hyperscaler 的 capex 会是怎样?嗯,所以那个唯一会……我没有答案,但我觉得嗯能给你那个答案的,是搞清楚哪些公司在签这些五年以上的长约,因为如果它们能通过签这些长期协议来控制自己的平均售价,那么

capex will like they'll have a lot more insight into what their capex would be because they'll know what the price of the memory that they're purchasing is at because they're locking in that rate.

capex 就会……它们对自己 capex 会是多少就有多得多的洞察,因为它们会知道自己采购的内存价格是多少,因为它们把那个价格锁定了。

Well, I'm going to guess it's going to be all these hyperscalers, right? They said 12 out of 14 like uh they say that they said 12 out of 14 signed deals. Yeah, they said 12 signed deals. 12 out of 14. I don't know who the 14 is, but 12 people signing these types of deals that are 100 billion. It's it has to be every hyperscaler.

那好,我猜会是所有这些 hyperscaler,对吧?它们说 14 家里有 12 家像呃……它们说它们说 14 家里有 12 家签了约。对,它们说 12 笔签了约。14 家里 12 家。我不知道那 14 是谁,但有 12 家在签这种 1000 亿的约。这……肯定是每一家 hyperscaler。

So then either that was baked into last earnings or next earnings, but I would assume next quarter's capex is probably the greatest insight into the memory price increase. And then if they continue to increase it past then, then they're starting to just bake in more GPUs, more data centers, more customers. Because the the the conversation that me and Jose are having a little bit right now is that I think it was Meta said that their capex increased quite a lot, but a lot of that was representative in memory price increases, not more GPUs.

所以那要么是已经计入了上一次财报,要么是下一次财报,但我会假设下个季度的 capex 大概是关于内存涨价的最大洞察。然后如果它们在那之后还继续往上加,那它们就是开始单纯地在计入更多 GPU、更多数据中心、更多客户了。因为我和 Jose 现在多少在聊的话题是,我想是 Meta 说过它们的 capex 增长了相当多,但其中很大一部分体现的是内存涨价,而不是更多的 GPU。

Mhm. Right. So, you're not getting more compute. The compute just costs a lot more. Yep. So, how do you distinguish between um prices? Oh, yeah. Okay. Let me go ahead and share this. Oh, and they share the the slides. This is the only This is the first time I've seen the

嗯哼。对。所以,你拿到的并不是更多算力。只是算力贵了很多。对。那,你怎么去区分嗯价格……哦,对。好。我这就来共享这个。哦,而且它们共享了那些幻灯片。这是唯一的……这是我第一次看到这个

slides. Recently, people are complaining. Thank you for joining us and welcome to Micron Technologies fiscal third quarter 2026 financial conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. Webcast viewers, please note that you will be able to advance the slides as you view at your own pace. I will now hand the conference over to Satcha Kumar, corporate vice president of investor relations and treasury.

幻灯片。最近，有人提出反馈。感谢各位参加，欢迎来到美光科技（Micron）2026 财年第三季度财务电话会议。在今天的预备陈词结束后，我们将进入问答环节。请网络直播的观众注意，您可以按照自己的节奏自行翻看幻灯片。现在我把会议交给投资者关系与财务部公司副总裁 Satya Kumar。

Satcha, please go ahead. Thank you and welcome to Micron Technologies fiscal third quarter 2026 financial conference call. On the call with me today are Sanjay Merottra our chairman, president and CEO and Mark Murphy our CFO. Today's call is being webcast from our investor relations site at investors.micron.com including audio and slides. In addition, the press release detailing our quarterly results has been posted on the website along with the prepared remarks for this call.

Satya，请开始。谢谢，欢迎来到美光科技 2026 财年第三季度财务电话会议。今天与我一同出席电话会的有我们的董事长、总裁兼首席执行官 Sanjay Mehrotra，以及我们的首席财务官 Mark Murphy。今天的电话会通过我们的投资者关系网站 investors.micron.com 进行网络直播，包含音频和幻灯片。此外，详述本季度业绩的新闻稿已连同本次电话会的预备陈词一同发布在网站上。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding our future financial and operating performance and our business model as well as trends and expectations in our business, customers, market, industry, products, and regulatory and other matters. These statements are based on our current assumptions and we assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our most recent financial reports on form 10K, forms 10Q, and other other filings with the SEC for more information on the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

今天的讨论包含受风险和不确定性影响的前瞻性声明（forward-looking statements）。这些前瞻性声明包括有关我们未来财务和经营表现、我们商业模式，以及我们业务、客户、市场、行业、产品、监管及其他事项的趋势和预期的陈述。这些陈述基于我们当前的假设，我们不承担更新这些陈述的义务。有关可能导致实际结果与预期出现重大差异的风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交的最新财务报告，包括 10-K 表、10-Q 表及其他文件。

Today's discussion of financial results is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A reconciliation of gap to non-GAAP financial measures can be found on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Sanjay.

除非另有说明，今天对财务业绩的讨论均以非 GAAP（non-GAAP）财务口径列报。GAAP 与非 GAAP 财务指标的对账可在我们的网站上查阅。现在我把电话会交给 Sanjay。

Thank you, Satya. Micron delivered an exceptional fiscal Q3 with significant records in revenue, gross margin, and EPS, all exceeding the high end of our guidance, demonstrating Micron's position as a leader, enabling the AI era. Our data center revenue exceeded $25 billion in fiscal Q3 or an annualized run rate of over $100 billion. Our data center SRS revenue exceeded $5 billion, more than doubling sequentially. DM and NAND industry demand continues to significantly exceed industry supply.

谢谢，Satya。美光交出了一份出色的 2026 财年第三季度成绩单，营收、毛利率和每股收益（EPS）均创下重大纪录，全部超过我们指引（guidance）的上限，彰显了美光作为赋能 AI 时代的领导者地位。我们 2026 财年第三季度的数据中心营收超过 250 亿美元，折合年化运行率（annualized run rate）超过 1000 亿美元。我们数据中心 SSD 营收超过 50 亿美元，环比增长一倍以上。DRAM 和 NAND 行业的需求继续大幅超过行业供给。

We expect tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027. As a result of AIdriven demand across all segments coupled with structural supply constraint constraints, we are excited to announce that we have now signed 16 strategic customer agreements or SCAs which we expect will fundamentally transform our business model. The memory industry has been structurally transformed by the proliferation of AI. We are only in the early innings of the significant innovation and productivity that can be unleashed in every part of the global economy over time.

我们预计紧张状况将持续到 2027 日历年之后。在所有细分市场 AI 驱动的需求叠加结构性供给受限（structural supply constraints）的背景下，我们很高兴地宣布，我们现已签署 16 份战略客户协议（strategic customer agreement，SCA），我们预计这些协议将从根本上重塑我们的商业模式。AI 的普及已经在结构上重塑了存储行业。在能够随时间在全球经济的每一个环节释放出的重大创新与生产力面前，我们才刚刚处于早期阶段。

Data centerdriven growth will be increasingly complemented by AI enabled features in smartphones, high-end PCs, and new consumer devices as well as in automotive, industrial applications and robotics. Exciting possibilities enabled by robotics and humanoids as well as fully autonomous vehicles portend a robust long-term demand environment for memory and storage. With respect to supply, our customers are recognizing that supply shortages in memory and storage will take considerable time to improve.

数据中心驱动的增长，将日益受到智能手机、高端 PC 和新型消费设备，以及汽车、工业应用和机器人领域中 AI 赋能功能的补充。机器人和人形机器人，以及完全自动驾驶汽车所带来的激动人心的可能性，预示着存储与存储产品长期需求环境的强劲。在供给方面，我们的客户正认识到，存储与存储产品的供给短缺将需要相当长的时间才能改善。

Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand. Memory industry supply growth is dependent on significant green field S fab expansion. These green field projects are large, complex and time consuming. Further, the pace is constrained by several factors, including long lead time for fab construction across the world, shortage of workers with critical trade skills, complex regulations, including permitting, and the need for enhanced energy infrastructure.

即便我们预计行业供给将在 2028 年逐步改善，我们目前仍无法清晰看到存储供给何时能够赶上不断增长的需求。存储行业的供给增长有赖于大规模的绿地（greenfield）晶圆厂（fab）扩建。这些绿地项目规模庞大、复杂且耗时。此外，其推进节奏还受到若干因素制约，包括全球范围内晶圆厂建设的长交付周期、具备关键工种技能的工人短缺、包括许可审批在内的复杂监管，以及对增强型能源基础设施的需求。

Meanwhile, memory process technology, which is among the most advanced to develop and manufacture in semiconductors, is getting more complex with every new node. Technology transitions are driving slower bit growth over time. Wafer growth needs are significantly increasing clean room space and green field requirements. And HBM's growth and increasing trade ratio with every new generation further pressures non-HBM supply in NAND industry suppliers redirecting clean room space from NAND to DAM and overall limited clean room space constrained NAND bid supply growth.

与此同时，存储制程技术——在半导体领域属于最难开发和制造的技术之一——正随着每一个新节点而变得更加复杂。技术换代正在使比特增长（bit growth）随时间放缓。晶圆增长需求正大幅增加洁净室（clean room）空间和绿地建设的需求。而 HBM 的增长以及每一代换算比（trade ratio）的提高，进一步对非 HBM 供给造成压力——NAND 行业厂商将洁净室空间从 NAND 调配给 DRAM，加上洁净室空间总体有限，制约了 NAND 的比特供给增长。

These factors taken together mean supply is structurally constrained in its growth and ability to meet industry demand despite our comprehensive efforts to increase supply. AI systems are powered by GPU as CPU designs from an increasingly broad set of suppliers. However, they all share one important characteristic. AI system performance is architecturally dependent on memory subsystem performance and capacity. This has given rise to more complex memory hierarchy that is providing greater differentiation opportunities for micron than at any time in our history.

这些因素综合在一起意味着，尽管我们全面努力增加供给，供给在其增长以及满足行业需求的能力上仍受到结构性约束。AI 系统由来自日益广泛的供应商群体的 GPU 和 CPU 设计驱动。然而，它们都有一个重要的共同点：AI 系统的性能在架构上依赖于存储子系统的性能和容量。这催生了更为复杂的存储层级体系，为美光带来了我们历史上任何时候都更大的差异化机会。

It has also elevated the role of memory in the AI world to a strategic asset. Strong long-term demand growth, structurally constrained supply growth, and memory's strategic importance have caused customers to recognize that their product road maps rely on access to advanced memory technology and dependable and committed long-term memory supply. Micron has been a pioneer in our industry in creating a new class of strategic customer agreements or SCAS with very robust terms.

这也将存储在 AI 世界中的角色提升为一项战略资产（strategic asset）。强劲的长期需求增长、结构性受限的供给增长，以及存储的战略重要性，已经让客户认识到，他们的产品路线图依赖于获取先进的存储技术，以及可靠且有承诺的长期存储供给。美光作为行业先驱，开创了一类条款十分稳健的全新战略客户协议（SCA）。

We are pleased to announce that we have completed 16 SCAS with customers across the data center, consumer and automarket segments. These seas accelerate the transformation of our business model, enhance partnership in technology and innovation and provide customers with contracted supply assurance. Typically, these agreements have a 5-year term from calendar 2026 through the end of calendar 2030. Automotive agreements generally have a three-year term. The 16 signed agreements represent roughly 20% of our DM volume and a third of our NAND volume over this period.

我们很高兴地宣布，我们已与数据中心、消费和汽车等细分市场的客户完成了 16 份 SCA。这些 SCA 加速了我们商业模式的转型，深化了在技术和创新方面的合作，并为客户提供了有合约保障的供给。通常，这些协议的期限为 5 年，从 2026 日历年到 2030 日历年年底。汽车类协议一般为 3 年期。已签署的 16 份协议在此期间约占我们 DRAM 出货量的 20% 和 NAND 出货量的三分之一。

These seas include four very large customers and three medium-sized customers. The remaining agreements relate to smaller customers from the automotive industry and represent our commitment to the important sector. When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these seas with customers across end markets. Our customer value are US supply plans and this is reflected in our seas. These seas are structured as take or pay agreements with binding commitments to purchase specific volumes over this multi-year term.

这些 SCA 包括四家超大型客户和三家中型客户。其余协议涉及来自汽车行业的较小型客户，代表了我们对这一重要行业的承诺。在全部完成后，我们预计公司约一半或更多的营收将处于这些 SCA 之下，客户遍及各终端市场。我们的客户重视有保障的供给计划，这一点反映在我们的 SCA 中。这些 SCA 以照付不议（take-or-pay）协议的形式构建，附有在该多年期内购买特定数量的具约束力承诺。

The largest agreements generally have a ceiling price for existing products at the current CQ2 market price and a floor price through the term of this agreement. Several seas which account for a modest portion of the sea related revenue include either fixed prices or have no price bands associated with them where pricing will be subject to market conditions. When all planned SCAS are executed, agreements with either fixed prices or price ceilings at or close to current CQ2 market prices are expected to be approximately 40% of our revenue.

最大的几份协议一般对现有产品设有上限价（ceiling price），即当前 CQ2 市场价，并在协议期内设有底价（floor price）。有几份 SCA——它们在 SCA 相关营收中只占很小一部分——要么采用固定价格，要么不附带任何价格区间，其定价将取决于市场状况。当全部计划中的 SCA 都执行后，采用固定价格或上限价等于或接近当前 CQ2 市场价的协议，预计将约占我们营收的 40%。

For seas which do contain such price bands, pricing is designed to stay within this floor to ceiling level through the course of the term. This pricing visibility will help our SCA customers across market segments to better manage their business and grow their demand. For our SCAS with price bands, the floor price enables a very robust gross margin for micron well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle.

对于确实包含此类价格区间的 SCA，其定价设计为在整个协议期内保持在该底价至上限价的区间之内。这种价格可见性将帮助我们跨各细分市场的 SCA 客户更好地管理其业务并扩大其需求。对于我们带价格区间的 SCA，底价为美光带来非常稳健的毛利率，远高于我们过去任何周期中的季度毛利率峰值。

14 of the 16 SCAS that we have signed have a cumulative revenue at minimum price per hour contracts of approximately $100 billion over the remaining agreement term. They also strengthen our long-term financial performance margins and free cash flow expectations with higher visibility and improved stability in our business performance. Under the seas we have signed so far, we project to receive cash deposits and related financial commitments of $22 billion.

在我们已签署的 16 份 SCA 中，有 14 份在剩余协议期内、按最低价计的合约累计营收约为 1000 亿美元。它们还以更高的可见性和改善的业务表现稳定性，强化了我们的长期财务表现、利润率和自由现金流预期。在我们迄今已签署的这些 SCA 之下，我们预计将收到 220 亿美元的现金押金及相关财务承诺。

This further demonstrates customer commitment to this new business model. Mark will provide additional details. Our seas with customers across data center to cons consumer devices to auto and industrial applications create a new paradigm for us to strengthen our customer relationships. They provide committed DAM including HPM as appropriate and NAN supply to our customers over a multi-year time horizon. In a period of significant shortage, this supply visibility is extremely beneficial to our customers.

这进一步彰显了客户对这一新商业模式的承诺。Mark 将提供更多细节。我们与从数据中心、消费设备到汽车和工业应用等各类客户签署的 SCA，为我们巩固客户关系创造了一种新范式。它们在多年时间跨度内向客户提供有承诺的 DRAM（含适当配置的 HBM）和 NAND 供给。在严重短缺的时期，这种供给可见性对我们的客户极为有益。

The visibility enables our customers to leverage SCS supply to make progress on their strategic plans, drive growth, and enable their end consumers to benefit from their products and services. We are very appreciative of our customers who have worked with us through this period of tight supplies with a strong collaborative spirit to create win-win outcomes for the long term for the entire ecosystem and end consumers. AI's insatiable appetite for memory bandwidth and capacity with low latency and low power is driving memory architectural choices, memory product mix shifts and manufacturing process technology decisions, all of which increase the complexity of memory and storage roadmap for the industry.

这种可见性使我们的客户能够借助 SCA 供给推进其战略计划、驱动增长，并使其终端消费者从其产品和服务中获益。我们非常感激与我们在这段供给紧张时期携手合作、以强烈协作精神为整个生态系统和终端消费者创造长期共赢成果的客户们。AI 对存储带宽和容量——并要求低延迟、低功耗——的贪婪需求，正驱动着存储架构选择、存储产品组合切换以及制造制程技术决策，所有这些都增加了行业存储与存储产品路线图的复杂性。

Micron is

美光

building on its technology leadership. Our one gamma DM node and G9 NAND node are both ramping well and on track to become the highest volume nodes in Micron's history. Development of our next generation DM and NAND nodes are also progressing well and are on track to begin volume production in the second half of calendar 2027. We are leveraging our leadership DM and LAN nodes across our product portfolio.

……在其技术领先优势的基础上更进一步。我们的 1-gamma DRAM 节点和 G9 NAND 节点都在顺利放量，并有望成为美光历史上出货量最高的节点。我们下一代 DRAM 和 NAND 节点的研发也进展顺利，有望在 2027 日历年下半年开始量产。我们正在整个产品组合中充分利用我们领先的 DRAM 和 NAND 节点。

HBM4 12 high volume ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM 3 E12 high and we have already shipped over 1 billion in HBM4 revenue. We expect to reach mature yields on HBM 4 12 high significantly faster than HBM 3E 12 high. Please see our earnings express release for other highlights across our HBM highcapacity DDR and LP server DAM data center SSD, PC, smartphone and automotive product portfolios.

HBM4 12-high 的放量速度是 HBM3E 12-high 的两倍，我们的 HBM4 收入已经突破 10 亿美元。我们预计 HBM4 12-high 达到成熟良率的速度将显著快于 HBM3E 12-high。其他亮点——涵盖我们的 HBM、高容量 DDR 和 LP 服务器 DRAM、数据中心 SSD、PC、智能手机和汽车产品组合——请参阅我们的财报新闻稿。

We expect future memory demand will continue to skew towards higher performance and higher value products whose complexity carries higher cost per bit. Transitions like LP5 to LP6, DDR5 to DDR6, and newer generations of HVM all come with rising bit costs. This trend along with the ramp of significant green field capacity in the years ahead is projected to cause the blended DAM cost per bit to rise from current level.

我们预计未来的存储需求将持续向更高性能、更高价值的产品倾斜，而这些产品的复杂度带来了更高的单位 bit 成本。LP5 到 LP6、DDR5 到 DDR6 等技术换代，以及更新世代的 HBM，都伴随着 bit 成本的上升。这一趋势，叠加未来几年大量 greenfield 产能的放量，预计将导致混合 DRAM 单位 bit 成本从当前水平上升。

Our customer seas provide for appropriate price premiums for such new products to be negotiated in the future. Turning to our end markets, AI is driving unprecedented growth in data centers with industry data center DM and NAND bit shipments in calendar 2026 expected to more than double from two years ago. Agentic AI is a structurally reshaping data center infrastructure, extending beyond accelerator only racks to include CPU racks for the agent control plane and program execution and storage racks for rapidly expanding context store.

我们的客户协议为这类新产品在未来协商相应的价格溢价提供了空间。转向我们的终端市场，AI 正在推动数据中心实现前所未有的增长，预计 2026 日历年全行业数据中心 DRAM 和 NAND 位元出货量将比两年前增长一倍以上。agentic AI 正在结构性地重塑数据中心基础设施，从仅有加速器的机架，延伸到用于 agent 控制平面和程序执行的 CPU 机架，以及用于快速扩张的 context store 的存储机架。

We now expect calendar 2026 industry server units to grow high teens percent above our prior expectations of low double digits driven by mid- teens growth in traditional servers and even stronger growth in servers with AI accelerators. We estimate that this increase in our server unit growth expectation is enabled by a modest reduction in average server DAM content growth as customers focus on maximizing unit shipment amid a very tight allocation of memory in N AI context memory storage and HDD displacement opportunities are expanding the addressible market for SSDs PC and smartphone industry revenue is expected to grow despite unit volume declines reflecting resilient demand for high-end devices at higher prices across end device categories.

我们现在预计 2026 日历年全行业服务器台数将增长 high teens（接近 20%）的百分比，高于我们此前 low double digits（约百分之十出头）的预期，这由传统服务器 mid-teens（约百分之十五上下）的增长，以及配备 AI 加速器的服务器更为强劲的增长所驱动。我们估计，服务器台数增长预期的这一上调，得益于平均单台服务器 DRAM 内容增长的小幅下降——因为客户在存储供应极为紧张的环境下，将重心放在最大化台数出货上。在 AI 中，context memory 存储和 HDD 替代机会正在扩大 SSD 的可触达市场（addressable market）。预计 PC 和智能手机行业的收入将在出货台数下滑的情况下实现增长，反映出各类终端设备品类中高端设备在更高价格下展现的韧性需求。

Agentic AI platforms such as OpenClaw and Nemoclaw elevate the value of edge devices enabling improved tokconomics, greater privacy and latency and more efficient orchestration of AI between the cloud and edge. Over time, we expect the value of ondevice AI combined with pentup unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth in PCs and smartphones. In automotive, ADA remains a powerful driver of content growth. L2 Plus and above vehicles, which feature a progressively increasing levels of autonomy, have over five times the memory and storage content of an average vehicle.

OpenClaw 和 Nemoclaw 等 agentic AI 平台提升了边缘设备的价值，带来更优的 token 经济性、更强的隐私性和更低的延迟，以及在云端与边缘之间更高效的 AI 编排。随着时间推移，我们预计端侧 AI 的价值，叠加积压的设备换机需求，将推动 PC 和智能手机的存储需求增长。在汽车领域，ADAS 仍是内容增长的强劲驱动力。L2+ 及以上级别的车辆——具备逐步提升的自动驾驶能力——其内存和存储内容是普通车辆的五倍以上。

The mix of L2 Plus and above vehicles is more than doubling this year to over 20% and is expected to exceed 40% by 2030. Average automemory and storage content is expected to further increase as mix shifts towards higher levels of autonomy with progressively higher levels of content. In robotics, continued advance advances in simulation, foundation models, and integrated hardware and software stacks are accelerating physical AI. This creates a growing contentrich opportunity for high bandwidth, low power memory and storage that powers realtime perception, inference, and control.

L2+ 及以上车辆的占比今年将翻倍以上，超过 20%，并预计到 2030 年将超过 40%。随着结构向更高自动驾驶等级（对应逐步更高的内容）迁移，汽车平均内存和存储内容预计将进一步提升。在机器人领域，仿真、基础模型以及软硬件一体化堆栈的持续进步，正在加速物理 AI（physical AI）。这为支撑实时感知、推理和控制的高带宽、低功耗内存和存储，创造了一个内容丰富且不断增长的机会。

Humanoid robots carry 10 times the amount of memory as an average L2 plus vehicle. And we expect a sustained substantial multi-deade memory demand cycle to begin in the latter part of this decade. Now turning to our market outlook, we now expect supply demand conditions for both DAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2027. In DAM, we expect industry DAM bed shipments in calendar 2026 to grow in the low to mid20s percentage range slightly above our prior outlook.

人形机器人所搭载的内存量是普通 L2+ 车辆的十倍。我们预计一个持续的、可观的、跨越数十年的存储需求周期，将从本十年的后半段开始。现在转向我们的市场展望，我们现在预计 DRAM 和 NAND 的供需紧张状况都将延续到 2027 日历年之后。在 DRAM 方面，我们预计 2026 日历年全行业 DRAM 位元出货量将增长 low to mid-20s（约百分之二十出头到二十五左右）的百分比，略高于我们此前的展望。

In NAND, we expect industry NAND bit shipments in calendar 2026 to grow approximately 20% unchanged from prior expectations. We expect Micron DM supply to grow approximately in line with the industry supply growth while micron supply grows somewhat less than the industry supply growth in calendar 2026. Our seas provide enhanced visibility on our long-term demand and provide us greater confidence on our capex and R&D investment. We are focused on maximizing output from our fabs, including collaboration with our suppliers to accelerate tool acquisition, FAB tool installation and ramp, and tool replacements and upgrades to improve productivity.

在 NAND 方面，我们预计 2026 日历年全行业 NAND 位元出货量将增长约 20%，与此前预期一致。我们预计美光 DRAM 供应增长将大致与行业供应增长保持一致，而美光（NAND）供应在 2026 日历年的增长则略低于行业供应增长。我们的协议为长期需求提供了更好的可见度，并让我们对自身的 capex 和 R&D 投资更有信心。我们专注于最大化各 fab 的产出，包括与供应商协作以加快设备采购、fab 设备安装与放量，以及设备替换与升级以提升生产率。

Recently, we concluded a multi-year EUV supply agreement with ASML, supporting our increased adoption of EUV at the one delta node and future generations. We are also making good progress on expanding our global manufacturing footprint to increase supply over time. This includes our significant investments in US leading edge DM manufacturing with our ID1 and ID2 FABS in Idaho whose construction is well underway as well as the first of our New York FAB clusters where we broke ground in January this year.

最近，我们与 ASML 达成了一项多年期 EUV 供应协议，以支持我们在 1-delta 节点及未来世代中扩大 EUV 的采用。我们也在扩大全球制造布局方面取得了良好进展，以便随时间推移增加供应。这包括我们在美国前沿 DRAM 制造上的重大投资——位于 Idaho 的 ID1 和 ID2 fab，其建设正在顺利推进——以及我们今年 1 月破土动工的纽约首个 fab 集群中的第一座。

ID1 is on track for first wafer output in midc calendar 202027 and ID2 in late calendar 2028. We recently launched first production starts of our one alpha DDR4 technology in our Manasses Virginia lab which will add to our capability to support the legacy product needs of our customers in auto industrial, medical, aerospace and defense markets. In our newly acquired Pongloo site in Taiwan, we expect to support meaningful product shipments from the existing 300,000 square ft FAB in midcaler 2027, about a quarter earlier than our prior expectations.

ID1 有望在 2027 日历年年中实现首批晶圆产出，ID2 则在 2028 日历年年末。我们最近在弗吉尼亚州 Manassas 的厂区启动了 1-alpha DDR4 技术的首批量产投片，这将增强我们支持客户在汽车、工业、医疗、航空航天与国防市场的传统产品需求的能力。在我们新收购的台湾 Pongloo 厂区，我们预计现有的 30 万平方英尺 fab 将在 2027 日历年年中开始实现有意义规模的产品出货，比我们此前预期提前约一个季度。

Adding to the existing FAB, we have begun construction of a similar size second clean room at this site. This clean room will support EUV equipment. Our construction activities and timelines are on track for our other facilities in Japan and Singapore. Complementing our advanced packaging capabilities in Taiwan, our Singapore site will become another center of excellence for advanced packaging. We expect this facility will contribute meaningfully to Micron's HBM packaging capacity beginning in the first half of calendar year 2027.

在现有 fab 之外，我们已在该厂区开工建设一座规模相近的第二间洁净室。这间洁净室将支持 EUV 设备。我们在日本和新加坡其他设施的建设活动与时间表均按计划推进。作为对我们在台湾的先进封装能力的补充，我们的新加坡厂区将成为又一个先进封装的卓越中心。我们预计该设施将从 2027 日历年上半年开始，为美光的 HBM 封装产能做出有意义的贡献。

As we make these investments, we will remain disciplined in our approach and will be responsive to the market environment to appropriately align our supply plans. I will now turn it over to Mark for our fiscal

在进行这些投资的过程中，我们将保持纪律性的策略，并对市场环境做出响应，以相应地调整我们的供应计划。现在我将把话筒交给 Mark，由他介绍我们的财务……

Q3 financial results and outlook. Thank you Sanjay and good afternoon everyone. Micron delivered exceptional fiscal Q3 results with revenue, gross margin, and EPS exceeding the high end of our guidance. Our results and today's outlook underscore the increasing value of memory in the AI era and the structural strength of our business. As mentioned, we have entered into 16 strategic customer agreements for SCAs with with defined price either fixed or subject to floor and ceiling pricing.

Q3 财务业绩与展望。谢谢 Sanjay,大家下午好。美光本财季 Q3 业绩表现卓越,营收、毛利率和 EPS 均超出我们指引区间的上限。我们的业绩以及今天的展望,都印证了 AI 时代记忆体价值的不断提升,以及我们业务结构性的强劲。如前所述,我们已经就 SCA(战略客户协议)签订了 16 份,价格已确定——要么是固定价格,要么是有底价和上限价(floor and ceiling pricing)的定价。

In accordance with the revenue accounting standard, we are disclosing remaining performance obligations RPO starting this May quarter. RPO at the end of fiscal Q3 was over $5 billion. For the SCAS that we have entered into so far, including ones executed after the end of fiscal Q3, RPO is approximately $100 billion. RPO is determined based on minimum committed volumes and minimum pricing and reflects inherently conservative estimates. RPO is not indicative of the total revenue we expect to recognize in future periods.

按照收入会计准则,我们从这个 5 月季度起开始披露剩余履约义务 RPO(remaining performance obligations)。本财季 Q3 末的 RPO 超过 $50 亿。就我们迄今已签订的 SCA 而言,包括财季 Q3 结束后签订的那些,RPO 约为 $1000 亿。RPO 是基于最低承诺量和最低定价来确定的,本身就反映了偏保守的估计。RPO 并不代表我们预期在未来期间确认的总营收。

As such, we expect revenue to well exceed associated RPOS over the term of the agreements. As Sanjay mentioned, we project to receive cash deposits and related financial commitments of $22 billion under the SCAS we have signed so far. The overwhelming majority of these commitments, approximately $18 billion, will be in the form of cash deposits. When all targeted SCAS are completed, we expect to have substantially higher levels of SCA customer deposits and related commitments.

因此,在这些协议的存续期内,我们预期营收将大幅超过对应的 RPO。正如 Sanjay 提到的,根据我们迄今已签的 SCA,我们预计将收到 $220 亿的现金押金(cash deposits)及相关财务承诺。这些承诺中的绝大部分,约 $180 亿,将以现金押金的形式存在。当所有目标 SCA 全部完成时,我们预计将拥有大幅更高水平的 SCA 客户押金及相关承诺。

These customer deposits will show up on our balance sheet more in fiscal Q4. The cash flows associated with customer deposits appear in financing related cash flows and will not affect our free cash flow. This cash will be returned to customers over time towards the latter half of the agreement term. We are excited with our progress in signing these SCAS which will strengthen our long-term financial performance and drive enduring robust ROI for the company over time.

这些客户押金将更多地在财季 Q4 体现在我们的资产负债表上。与客户押金相关的现金流出现在融资相关现金流中,不会影响我们的自由现金流(free cash flow)。这笔现金将在协议期限的后半段逐步返还给客户。我们对签订这些 SCA 的进展感到兴奋,它们将增强我们的长期财务表现,并随时间推移为公司带来持久而稳健的 ROI。

Total fiscal Q3 revenue was $41.5 billion, up 74% sequentially and up 346% year-over-year, representing our fifth consecutive quarterly revenue record. The $17.6 billion sequential increase is the largest in our history, eclipsing last quarter's $10.2 billion record. Fiscal Q3 DRM revenue was a record 31.3 billion, up 343% year-over-year, and represented 76% of total revenue. Sequentially, DRM revenue increased 67%. Bit shipments were up low singledigit percentage range. Prices increased in the low60s percentage range driven by tight industry conditions and favorable mix.

本财季 Q3 总营收为 $415 亿,环比增长 74%,同比增长 346%,这是我们连续第五个季度创下营收纪录。$176 亿的环比增量是我们历史上最大的一次,超过了上季度 $102 亿的纪录。本财季 Q3 的 DRAM 营收创纪录达到 $313 亿,同比增长 343%,占总营收的 76%。环比来看,DRAM 营收增长了 67%。位元出货量(bit shipments)增幅在低个位数百分比区间。价格上涨在 60% 出头的低区间,主要受行业供应紧张的状况和有利的产品结构(mix)推动。

Fiscal Q3 NAND revenue was a record $9.9 billion, up 361% year-over-year and represented 24% of total revenue. Sequentially, NAN revenue increased 99%. Bit shipments increased in the mids singledigit percentage range. Prices increased in the mid80s percentage range driven by tight and industry conditions and a favorable mix. The consolidated gross margin for fiscal Q3 was 84.9%. Up 10 percentage points sequentially. This improvement was driven primarily by higher pricing and also benefited from continuing strong execution and favorable mix.

本财季 Q3 的 NAND 营收创纪录达到 $99 亿,同比增长 361%,占总营收的 24%。环比来看,NAND 营收增长了 99%。位元出货量增幅在中个位数百分比区间。价格上涨在 80% 中段区间,主要受行业供应紧张的状况和有利的产品结构推动。本财季 Q3 的合并毛利率为 84.9%,环比上升 10 个百分点。这一改善主要受更高定价的推动,同时也得益于持续强劲的执行力和有利的产品结构。

Fiscal Q3 gross margin more than doubled from a year ago and was a new company record. Now turning to quarterly financial performance by business unit. Cloud memory business unit revenue was a record 13.8 billion and represented 33% of total company revenue. CMBBU revenue was up 78% sequentially driven by higher pricing and bid shipments. GMBBU gross margins were 83% up 9 percentage points sequentially driven by higher pricing.

本财季 Q3 的毛利率较一年前翻了一倍多,并创下公司新纪录。现在转向按业务部门划分的季度财务表现。云内存业务部 CMBU(Cloud Memory Business Unit)营收创纪录达到 $138 亿,占公司总营收的 33%。CMBU 营收环比增长 78%,受更高定价和位元出货量推动。CMBU 毛利率为 83%,环比上升 9 个百分点,受更高定价推动。

Core data center business unit revenue is a record 11.5 billion and represented 28% of total company revenue. CDBU revenue was up 103% sequentially driven by higher pricing and a favorable mix. TDBU gross margins were 87% up 12 percentage points sequentially driven by higher pricing. Mobile and client business unit revenue was a record 11.5 billion and represented 28% of total company revenue. MCBU revenue was up 49% sequentially driven by higher pricing partially offset by lower bit shipments.

核心数据中心业务部 CDBU(Core Data Center Business Unit)营收创纪录达到 $115 亿,占公司总营收的 28%。CDBU 营收环比增长 103%,受更高定价和有利的产品结构推动。CDBU 毛利率为 87%,环比上升 12 个百分点,受更高定价推动。移动与客户端业务部 MCBU(Mobile and Client Business Unit)营收创纪录达到 $115 亿,占公司总营收的 28%。MCBU 营收环比增长 49%,受更高定价推动,部分被位元出货量下降所抵消。

MCBU gross margins were 87%. Up nine percentage points sequentially driven primarily by higher pricing and helped by favorable mix. Automotive and embedded business unit revenue was a record $4.6 billion and represented 11% of total company revenue. AEBU revenue was up 71% sequentially driven by higher pricing and higher bit shipments. ABU gross margins were 79%. Up 11 percentage points sequentially driven by higher pricing and favorable mix. Operating expenses in fiscal Q3 were 1.5 billion, up $97 million quarter over quarter.

MCBU 毛利率为 87%,环比上升 9 个百分点,主要受更高定价推动,并得益于有利的产品结构。汽车与嵌入式业务部 AEBU(Automotive and Embedded Business Unit)营收创纪录达到 $46 亿,占公司总营收的 11%。AEBU 营收环比增长 71%,受更高定价和更高位元出货量推动。AEBU 毛利率为 79%,环比上升 11 个百分点,受更高定价和有利的产品结构推动。本财季 Q3 的经营费用(operating expenses)为 $15 亿,环比增加 $9700 万。

The sequential increase was due to higher variable compensation expense from the strong performance of the business. We generated operating income of 33.7 billion in fiscal Q3 resulting in an operating margin of 81.2% up 12 percentage points sequentially and 54 percentage points year-over-year. Fiscal Q3 taxes were $5.1 billion on an effective tax rate of 14.9%. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share in fiscal Q3 was $2511 up 106% sequentially.

环比增长是由于业务强劲表现带来的可变薪酬费用上升。本财季 Q3 我们实现经营利润(operating income)$337 亿,经营利润率(operating margin)为 81.2%,环比上升 12 个百分点,同比上升 54 个百分点。本财季 Q3 的税费为 $51 亿,有效税率(effective tax rate)为 14.9%。本财季 Q3 的 non-GAAP 摊薄每股收益(EPS)为 $25.11,环比增长 106%。

Turning to cash flow and capital expenditures in fiscal Q3 operating cash flows were 25.4 4 billion. Capital expenditures were $7.1 billion, resulting in free cash flow of $18.3 billion. Fiscal Q3 free cash flow was a quarterly record for the company. Ending inventory for fiscal Q3 was 8.6 Ending inventory for fiscal Q3 was 8.6 Ending inventory for fiscal Q3 was 8.6 billion with days of inventory at 120.

转向本财季 Q3 的现金流与资本开支(capital expenditures)。经营性现金流(operating cash flows)为 $254 亿。资本开支为 $71 亿,由此产生自由现金流 $183 亿。本财季 Q3 的自由现金流创下公司季度纪录。本财季 Q3 期末库存(inventory)为 $86 亿,库存天数(days of inventory)为 120 天。

DRAM inventories are very tight and below 120 days. We reached record levels of cash investments of $30.2 billion at quarter end. During fiscal Q3, we reduced debt by $4.4 billion, including a cash tender offer that reduced senior notes by $4.3 billion. The weighted average maturity on our outstanding debt is April 2035. We close the quarter with 5.7 billion of debt and a net cash balance of $24.4 billion.

DRAM 库存非常紧张,低于 120 天。我们在季度末达到了创纪录的现金投资水平,为 $302 亿。在本财季 Q3 期间,我们减债 $44 亿,其中包括一项现金要约收购(cash tender offer),将优先票据(senior notes)减少了 $43 亿。我们未偿债务的加权平均到期日为 2035 年 4 月。我们在季末时债务为 $57 亿,净现金(net cash)余额为 $244 亿。

This fiscal year, we received upgrades from all three major credit rating agencies, including an upgrade to tripleB plus on the strength of our technology and product position. financial outlook and strong balance sheet. Our balance sheet has never been stronger and we project it to strengthen further even as we increase investment in technology and needed capacity. Now turning to guidance, we expect fiscal Q4 revenue to be a record $50 billion plus or minus $1 billion.

本财年,我们获得了全部三家主要信用评级机构的上调,包括基于我们技术与产品地位的实力被上调至 BBB+(triple-B plus)。财务展望与强劲的资产负债表。我们的资产负债表从未如此强劲,我们预计它还会进一步增强,即便我们在加大对技术和所需产能的投资。现在转向指引,我们预计本财季 Q4 营收将创纪录达到 $500 亿,上下浮动 $10 亿。

Gross margin to be approximately 86%. And operating expenses to be approximately $1.65 65 billion. Based on a share count of approximately 1.15 billion shares, we expect EPS to be a record $31 per share, plus or minus a dollar. Our fiscal Q4 gross margin outlook reflects a meaningful moderation in the rate of price increases. We project operating expenses to increase by approximately $1 billion in fiscal 2027 as we expand R&D to support an unprecedented set of opportunities in memory and storage.

毛利率约为 86%。经营费用约为 $16.5 亿。基于约 11.5 亿股的股本数,我们预计 EPS 将创纪录达到每股 $31,上下浮动 $1。我们本财季 Q4 的毛利率展望反映了价格涨幅的显著放缓。我们预计 2027 财年经营费用将增加约 $10 亿,因为我们将扩大研发以支持记忆体与存储领域前所未有的一系列机遇。

We expect operating expense increases to be weighted to the second half. We expect a fiscal Q4 and fiscal 2026 tax rate of around 15%. Micron continues to invest in a disciplined manner across our global footprint to address customer demand. As a reminder, our capex's net of anticipated government incentives. In fiscal Q4, we project capex of around $10 billion, bringing fullear fiscal 2026 capital spending to approximately 27 billion.

我们预计经营费用的增长将偏重在下半年。我们预计本财季 Q4 和 2026 财年的税率约为 15%。美光将继续以审慎的方式在全球布局中进行投资,以满足客户需求。提醒一下,我们的资本开支是扣除预期政府激励(government incentives)后的净额。在本财季 Q4,我们预计资本开支约为 $100 亿,使 2026 财年全年资本支出达到约 $270 亿。

We expect quarterly capex in fiscal 2027 to be above fiscal Q4 levels with more than half the increase year-over-year in fiscal 2027 from construction capex as we pull in clean room capacity required to address long-term demand. We forecast free cash flow to increase substantially again in fiscal Q4. From December 9th, 2026, the second anniversary of the signature of our definitive chips agreements, we intend to increase our capital return.

我们预计 2027 财年的季度资本开支将高于本财季 Q4 的水平,2027 财年同比增量中超过一半来自建设性资本开支(construction capex),因为我们正在提前拉动满足长期需求所需的洁净室(clean room)产能。我们预计本财季 Q4 的自由现金流将再次大幅增长。从 2026 年 12 月 9 日起——也就是我们签署确定性 CHIPS Act 协议(definitive chips agreements)的两周年——我们打算加大资本回报(capital return)。

Over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash to shareholders. Any impacts that may occur due to trade or geopolitical developments are not included in our guidance. I'll now turn it over to Sanjay to close.

随时间推移,我们预计将把 100% 的超额现金返还给股东。任何可能因贸易或地缘政治发展而产生的影响均未包含在我们的指引中。现在我把时间交给 Sanjay 来作结。

Thank you, Mark. AI has elevated the value of memory. Micron is collaborating closely with our customers and suppliers across technology, product, manufacturing, and commercial teams in this tight industry environment. Strategic customer agreements are ushering in an exciting era for Micron. We expect these SCAS to significantly enhance the durability and predictability of Micron's strong financial performance, accelerating the transformation of our business model. I'm thankful to Micron's team members worldwide, whose relentless focus on execution on all fronts has positioned Micron as a leader in this new AI era.

谢谢你,Mark。AI 提升了记忆体的价值。在这一供应紧张的行业环境中,美光正与我们的客户和供应商在技术、产品、制造和商务团队各个层面紧密协作。战略客户协议(SCA)正在为美光开启一个激动人心的时代。我们预计这些 SCA 将显著增强美光强劲财务表现的持久性和可预测性,加速我们商业模式的转型。我感谢美光遍布全球的团队成员,他们在各个战线上对执行的不懈专注,使美光在这个全新的 AI 时代中确立了领导地位。

As we continue to advance our mission to accelerate intelligence to enrich life for all, we

当我们继续推进我们的使命——加速智能以丰富所有人的生活——我们……

will now open for questions. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. Your first question comes from the line of Timothy Aruri with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

现在开始提问环节。我们现在开始问答环节。请将提问限制在一个问题加一个追问。如果您想提问，请按星号一键举手。要撤回您的问题，请再次按星号一键。您的第一个问题来自 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。您的线路已接通，请讲。

Hi. Um, Sanjay, I I'm so I think we're all trying to figure out um how much is locked in in kind of a floor price scenario over the next five years. And there were two things you said. You said that 14 of the 16 SCAS have a hundred billion in cumulative revenue. So that sort of says like $20 billion a year at like a floor price which is way below the you know run rate that you just guided.

你好。嗯，Sanjay，我想我们所有人都在努力搞清楚，在未来五年里，在某种 floor price（下限价）情景下到底锁定了多少。你说了两点。你说 16 份 SCA 中有 14 份合计带来一千亿美元的累计营收。所以这大概意味着按 floor price 算每年约 200 亿美元，这远低于你刚才给出的运行率（run rate）指引。

So that says that not that much would be covered at a you know floor price. But then you also said that 40% of revenue will be moving inside of these seas. So can you maybe you know double click on all that and sort of help us in a in like a floor price scenario. uh you know can you help us think about how much of you know revenue per year would be guaranteed?

所以这意味着，在 floor price 下被覆盖的并不算多。但你同时又说，40% 的营收将走在这些 SCA 之内。所以你能不能就这些再深入讲一下，帮我们在 floor price 情景下理解——你能帮我们想清楚每年大概有多少营收是有保障的吗？

So as we indicated that under these SCAS that have been completed so far u at the floor price the you know revenue is projected to be hundred billion. Uh but again as Mark noted in his remarks I mean we expect revenue to be much higher than that. Uh note that at the floor price that our uh profitability levels at the gross margins at the pro uh um floor prices are higher than peak margins at any time in the past and uh so uh overall about 20% of DAM and about 30% of our NAND volume is covered in these SCAS.

正如我们所指出的，在目前已经完成的这些 SCA 之下，按 floor price 计算，预计营收为一千亿美元。但同样，正如 Mark 在他的发言中提到的，我们预期营收会远高于此。请注意，在 floor price 下，我们的盈利水平、毛利率，在这些 floor price 下，都高于过去任何时候的峰值毛利率。总体而言，我们大约 20% 的 DRAM 和大约 30% 的 NAND 出货量被这些 SCA 覆盖。

so far. So that amounts to about 25% of our revenue uh that you can project over the term of these agreements. So again you know uh RPO at the floor price is to be reported as an accounting measure but we fully expect that the revenue will be much higher than that.

到目前为止是这样。所以这相当于大约 25% 的营收，是你可以在这些协议期限内预测出来的。所以再说一遍，按 floor price 计算的 RPO 是作为一项会计指标来报告的，但我们完全预期实际营收会远高于此。

Got it. And then um and then with respect to just how these layer in uh Mark um like how much of the August quarter revenue for example will be flowing under an SA. I'm just trying to figure out how to like layer that into the model and when you get to like a full run rate where like by next fiscal Q4 will you be at sort of a full run rate of you know what's being covered you know under these SCAS can you help us sort of like feather that in?

明白了。然后，关于这些是如何逐步叠加进来的——Mark，比如说，8 月这个季度的营收中有多少会走在某份 SCA 之下？我只是想搞清楚怎么把它叠进模型里，以及什么时候会达到完整的运行率，比如到下一财年 Q4 时，你们是否会达到这些 SCA 所覆盖内容的完整运行率？你能帮我们把这个逐步铺进来吗？

Yeah. So you'll you'll see a disclosure in the in the queue um which will disclose um uh the next 12 months revenue associated with um each set of agreements that have an RPO. So, uh, for example, um, for those that closed within Q3, um, you'll see an RPO of of, uh, five billion, over five billion and you'll see a next 12 months associated with that of about 1.8 billion and you know that is that is because those are some of the smaller agreements that Sanjay mentioned um, you know, automotive agreements.

是的。所以你会在 10-Q 中看到一项披露，会披露与每一组带有 RPO 的协议相关的未来 12 个月营收。所以，举例来说，对于那些在 Q3 内完成的协议，你会看到一个超过 50 亿美元的 RPO，你会看到与之相关的未来 12 个月营收约为 18 亿美元，而这是因为那些是 Sanjay 提到的一些较小的协议，你知道的，比如汽车类协议。

Now in the fourth quarter um as as Sanjay mentioned um uh you will see an RPO reported um you know on these 16 agree on 14 of the 16 agreements that is going to be about a h 100red billion and there will be an associated next 12 months associated with those that will be disclosed in the K. So you will you will be able to see you know roughly how these are feathering in and you know keep in mind this RPO number um you know it is a minimally contractually enforcable amount for the intersection of volume and price.

现在到了第四季度，正如 Sanjay 提到的，你会看到一个 RPO 被报告出来，针对这 16 份协议中的 14 份，那将约为一千亿美元，并且会有一个与之相关的未来 12 个月营收，会在 10-K 中披露。所以你将能够大致看到这些是如何逐步铺进来的。而且要记住，这个 RPO 数字，它是 volume（量）和 price（价）交集下、在合同上最低限度可强制执行的金额。

So you're looking Tim at a at a minimum number and that's important to keep in mind and we were clear that it doesn't reflect what we think will happen. And then also each quarter, you know, this RPO number will change. It will change based on contracts that are added in. It may change on additional volume commitments with with the determined price. It will change based on shipments and how that RPO is is uh declines after that um performance obligation is met.

所以你看到的，Tim，是一个最低值，这一点很重要，要记住，我们也说得很清楚，它并不反映我们认为会发生的情况。然后，每个季度这个 RPO 数字都会变化。它会因为新增的合同而变化。它可能因为带有确定价格的额外量承诺而变化。它会因为出货以及该履约义务完成后 RPO 如何下降而变化。

So um so you'll be getting a lot of additional reporting. Uh this is all under ASC 606. I know it's something that we you know it's not a heavy standard um typically in some of our reporting but this this feature of of RPO you will see um I also want to emphasize as as Sanjay mentioned that even at the floor price and um eventually we anticipate about 40% of our revenue being being under this um sort of RPO related uh commitments.

所以你会得到很多额外的报告。这一切都是在 ASC 606 之下。我知道这通常在我们的某些报告中不是一个很重的准则，但 RPO 这个特性你会看到。我还想强调，正如 Sanjay 提到的，即便按 floor price 计算，我们最终预计大约 40% 的营收会处于这种与 RPO 相关的承诺之下。

that even under the floor on the floor price uh we expect the margins to be uh significantly above uh prior peak margins. Okay, thank you both. Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Um, I also wanted to ask about the the LTAs. Can you talk about the the role of the cash deposit? Should we think of that as being sort of a an escrow collateral account where if people cancel you would have access to cash?

即便在 floor、在 floor price 下，我们预期毛利率也会显著高于此前的峰值毛利率。 （主持人）好的，谢谢二位。您的下一个问题来自 Morgan Stanley 的 Joseph Moore。您的线路已接通，请讲。 （Joseph Moore）嗯，我也想问问 LTA（长期协议）的事。你能谈谈现金押金（cash deposit）的作用吗？我们是否应该把它理解为某种 escrow（托管）担保账户，如果客户取消，你们就能动用那笔现金？

Like if it's not revenue, like sort of what is the point of the deposit and and what is the relationship of those deposits with the RPO if there is one? Yeah. Uh Joe on the on the deposits. So um you know we mentioned that um you know that we that we have 22 billion of deposits and financial commitments associated with the uh agreement signed to date as of this call.

比如说，如果它不是营收，那这个押金的意义到底是什么？以及如果有的话，这些押金和 RPO 之间是什么关系？ （Mark Murphy）是的。Joe，关于押金。嗯，我们提到，截至本次电话会议为止，与已签署协议相关的押金和财务承诺为 220 亿美元。

Um 18 billion approximately of that is cash deposits. uh will receive those deposits. Um you know uh we received um you know about 500 mill 400 plus million in the third quarter. Uh we'll receive about another 10 billion in the fourth quarter and you will um you know these will these will be seen uh cash deposits will be seen um uh in financing cash flows. They will not affect free cash flow.

其中大约 180 亿美元是现金押金。我们将收到这些押金。我们在第三季度收到了大约 5 亿、4 亿多美元。我们将在第四季度再收到约 100 亿美元，而你会看到，这些现金押金会体现在 financing cash flows（融资性现金流）中。它们不会影响 free cash flow（自由现金流）。

Um they will be they are held um uh by us um uh during the performance commitments of the agreements and as those agreements are satisfied uh those deposits will be returned over time but heavily weighted to the back half um of the agreements. Um the difference between the you know 22 billion and the 18 so roughly the 4 billion 4 billion of others is uh letters for credit.

它们在协议的履约承诺期间由我们持有，随着这些协议被履行，这些押金会随时间返还，但很大程度上偏重于协议的后半段。220 亿美元和 180 亿美元之间的差额，也就是大约 40 亿美元的其他部分，是信用证（letters of credit）。

Okay. But what what is the role? I mean what what happens to that cash? You know it seems like they're putting a deposit and then they get the deposit back. You know is is what is the reason for them to commit that cash? Is that something where there's a take or pay that that cash is related to? You know, it's not a prepayment. Just can you help us understand that?

好的。但它的作用是什么？我是说，那笔现金会怎么样？你知道，看起来他们交了一笔押金，然后又把押金拿回去。那他们承诺这笔现金的理由是什么？这是不是某种与 take-or-pay 相关的现金？你知道，它不是预付款（prepayment）。你能帮我们理解一下吗？

Yeah, thanks Joe. It's it's not a prepayment. It's a separate um commitment by the customers and a um and a and a reflection of the fact that we have a binding agreement and these are take pay agreements and um and you know we hold the cash and and it's a reflection of our shared commitment to uh you know perform under these agreements. Now um you know this is this is good for Micron of course these agreements and that um we get visibility um on our demand it's committed volume uh that we can be confident about making our investments large capital investments uh closer technology um relationship it's good for the customers because they have supply assurance they have leading technology um so in our view it's a win-win in and um you know very very

是的，谢谢 Joe。它不是预付款。它是客户做出的一项单独承诺，是我们拥有一份具有约束力协议这一事实的体现，而这些是 take-or-pay 协议，而且我们持有这笔现金，它体现的是我们对履行这些协议的共同承诺。现在，这对 Micron 当然是好事，这些协议让我们获得需求的可见度，是有承诺的量，让我们可以有信心地进行投资、进行大规模资本投资，更紧密的技术关系。它对客户也好，因为他们有供应保障、有领先技术。所以在我们看来这是双赢的，而且我们非常非常

happy with the nature of the agreements and the impact they have on the business and um uh indication of of a uh transformed business model at Micron very helpful thanks for all the disclosure on this it's really helps a lot thanks your next question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Caner Fitzgerald your line is Please go ahead.

满意这些协议的性质以及它们对业务的影响，这是 Micron 业务模式被重塑的一个体现。 （CJ Muse）非常有帮助，谢谢这方面的所有披露，真的帮了大忙。谢谢。 （主持人）您的下一个问题来自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 CJ Muse。您的线路已接通，请讲。

Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. Maybe to just follow up on Joe's question, Mark. you know, when you think about these cash deposits, do do you view that as fungeible cash and and use for for capex and and I guess as part of that when you contemplate capital returns particularly, you know, after December 14th kind of chips act end date, do you will you include kind of that cash that you received in your gross cash thoughts and and your thoughts around capital returns or is that something given that you will have to return it eventually uh that would cause you to to think um steady state you you'll need to hold more gross cash follow SQL.

是的，下午好。谢谢你回答问题。也许就接着 Joe 的问题问，Mark。你知道，当你考虑这些现金押金时，你是否把它视为可动用（fungible）的现金，可以用于 capex（资本开支）？而且我想作为其中一部分，当你考虑资本回报时，特别是在 12 月 14 日那个《芯片法案》（CHIPS Act）截止日期之后，你是否会把你收到的那笔现金计入你的 gross cash（总现金）考量，以及你关于资本回报的思考中？还是说，鉴于你最终必须把它返还，这会让你认为，在稳态下你需要持有更多的总现金？

Uh CJ, it's unrestricted. But but does it change your thoughts around uh gross cash that you need that you feel comfortable holding um you know on your books? Not not in the near term. I I think we you know we of course are going to have what we view as adequate liquidity to support the operation of the business. Uh that that would include over time uh returning the deposits as customers um and and Micron perform on the contracts.

CJ，它是 unrestricted（不受限）的。 （CJ Muse）但它是否会改变你对你需要、对你觉得在账上持有多少总现金才安心的看法？ （Mark Murphy）近期内不会。我想我们当然会持有我们认为足以支撑业务运营的充足流动性。这其中会包括随时间返还押金，随着客户和 Micron 履行合同。

Um and so that of course is important. uh but um uh you know and then we would hold uh liquidity uh to satisfy what investments we believe are important for the business. You know we've got a lot of um you know we've got large projects underway to provide supply and also um you know R&D programs. So um and you know and again I'll emphasize that you know the customers you know as I mentioned earlier they will get this uh return deposit back um in the latter ha latter half of the agreement.

所以那当然很重要。但是，你知道，然后我们会持有流动性来满足我们认为对业务重要的那些投资。你知道我们有很多……我们有正在进行的大型项目来提供供应，还有研发项目。所以，再说一遍，我要强调，你知道客户，正如我之前提到的，他们会在协议的后半段拿回这笔返还的押金。

Perfect. And then maybe as a followup on on HPM revenues, c could you kind of share how you're thinking about uh both your market share and perhaps total revenues into calendar 26? And you know, is there an expectation into calendar 27 that you can bridge uh margins there closer to uh what you're getting on D5 or is that a place that that will be um you know permanently below uh you know that D5 level?

很好。然后也许作为追问，关于 HBM 营收，你能不能分享一下你是怎么看待你进入 2026 日历年的市场份额（market share）以及总营收的？而且，进入 2027 日历年，是否有预期能把那里的毛利率拉近到你在 D5（即 DDR5）上拿到的水平，还是说那是一个会永久低于 D5 水平的地方？

Thanks so much. So with respect to HBM uh first of all very very pleased with our HBM4 product and uh Micron's shipments already uh of HBM4 of um over $1 billion HPM uh market share we strategically are choosing it to be close to our DM share and this is important because of the trade ratio of HBM it consumes as you uh significant amount of wafers and puts pressure on nonHPM supply in the industry.

非常感谢。那么关于 HBM，首先，我们对我们的 HBM4 产品非常非常满意，而且 Micron 的 HBM4 出货已经超过 10 亿美元。HBM 市场份额方面，我们在战略上选择让它贴近我们的 DRAM 份额，这很重要，因为 HBM 的 trade ratio（换算比率）——它消耗大量晶圆，对行业内非 HBM 供应造成压力。

Um so uh targeting our HPM share close to our DRAM share strategically enables us to supply our diversified end markets customers across uh all end markets data center uh consumer um uh automotive industrial you know the markets that need uh nonHBM supplies. Regarding your question on um uh pricing for uh next year, uh we are really not commenting on uh pricing but certainly HBM is a product where Micron has a strong uh leadership position.

所以，在战略上把我们的 HBM 份额定在贴近我们的 DRAM 份额，使我们能够供应我们多元化的终端市场客户，覆盖所有终端市场——数据中心、消费、汽车、工业，你知道那些需要非 HBM 供应的市场。关于你提到的明年定价的问题，我们确实不对定价做评论，但 HBM 无疑是 Micron 拥有强大领导地位的一个产品。

Um we have demonstrated tremendous success now with HBM 38 high, HBM CE 12 high and now with HBM 4 and a strong road map ahead u of uh you know strong confidence in our ability to execute to that and it would it is a higher price product uh you know compared to nonHPM on a per bit basis and it is a product that is critically important for the entire AI ecosystem from data center to edge.

我们现在已经在 HBM3E 8 层、HBM3E 12 层，以及现在的 HBM4 上展现出了巨大的成功，并且前方有强劲的路线图，对我们执行该路线图的能力有强烈信心。而且按每比特计算，与非 HBM 相比，它是一个更高价的产品，它是一个对从数据中心到边缘的整个 AI 生态系统都至关重要的产品。

So strategically it is a very important product for us and it is a product that does provide strong ROI as well. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of VC Arya with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

所以在战略上它对我们是一个非常重要的产品，而且它也是一个确实能提供强劲 ROI（投资回报率）的产品。 （CJ Muse）谢谢。 （主持人）您的下一个问题来自 Bank of America Securities 的 Vivek Arya。您的线路已接通，请讲。

Uh thanks for taking my question. Um for the first one um Sanjay you mentioned I think four large and three medium-sized uh customer agreements and I'm curious how many of them are uh related to the data center should we expect more data center related uh announcements and the hundred billion dollars uh does that align with the large and medium size or does it align with the smaller size customers?

谢谢你回答我的问题。关于第一个问题，Sanjay，你提到了我想是四个大型和三个中型客户协议，我很好奇其中有多少是与数据中心相关的，我们是否应该预期会有更多与数据中心相关的公告？还有那一千亿美元，它对应的是大型和中型规模的客户，还是对应较小规模的客户？

I guess I'm still trying to figure out what is the typical SCA with the data center customer like is uh have you given enough uh breadcrumbs for us to figure out what a data center SCA looks like over the next few years. So our large u uh customers uh include uh you know data center uh and the large and medium customers that you mentioned you know and of course including our smaller customers they do go across data center consumer and automotive markets and we have uh provided you uh color on uh the large agreements have um of course um you know generally have a ceiling price have a price band which has a floor as well as a ceiling and the ceiling is established at the CQ2 price levels and of course uh that you

我想我还在努力搞清楚，与数据中心客户的典型 SCA 是什么样的，你是否已经给了我们足够的线索来搞清楚未来几年一份数据中心 SCA 长什么样。所以我们的大型客户包括数据中心，以及你提到的大型和中型客户，当然也包括我们较小的客户，他们确实横跨数据中心、消费和汽车市场。我们已经向你提供了关于这些大型协议的一些细节——当然，它们一般都有一个 ceiling price（上限价），有一个价格带，既有 floor（下限）也有 ceiling（上限），而上限是按 CQ2（日历第二季度）的价格水平设定的，当然，那个

know that CQ2 price levels are reflected in our FQ3 results as well as FQ4 guidance and uh they provide for unprecedented levels of profitability. Um and those price bands also provide for floor prices uh which where the gross margins are well above the peaks at any past cycle in company's uh history. And uh the large uh agreements uh that we mentioned you know these are uh you know multi-year uh agreements and they provide us tremendous visibility uh to demand customer commitments and they of course come with the financial commitments including cash deposits um that Mark elaborated on further earlier.

CQ2 价格水平也反映在我们的 FQ3 业绩以及 FQ4 指引中，而且它们带来了前所未有的盈利水平。这些价格带也设定了 floor price（下限价），在那里毛利率远高于公司历史上任何过去周期的峰值。而且我们提到的那些大型协议，你知道，这些是多年期协议，它们为我们提供了对需求、客户承诺的巨大可见度，而且它们当然附带财务承诺，包括 Mark 之前进一步详细说明的现金押金。

Thanks. And for my followup, uh Mark, on on gross margins, um you know, 86%, does it kind of hang out here for a while? Um is there a ceiling? And then as these SCAS start to kick in, should we assume some kind of normalization to between you know the mid 80s where you are now versus I think the the prior peak was in the low um 60s.

谢谢。作为我的追问，Mark，关于毛利率，你知道，86%，它会在这里停留一段时间吗？有没有一个上限？然后随着这些 SCA 开始起作用，我们是否应该假设会有某种向中间区间的正常化（normalization）——介于你现在所处的 mid 80s（80 出头）和此前峰值（我想是 low 60s，60 出头）之间？

So as as you know, as your long-term investors build their models for 27, 28, etc., Should they be assuming a normalized gross margin range uh somewhere in in the mid70s, right? Kind of the range between where you are today versus the prior peaks. If if you could just, you know, hold our hands on how to think about gross margins beyond this 86% in the near term and then longer term, what is the right way to think about uh how these gross margins unfold?

所以，你知道，当你的长期投资者为 2027、2028 等年份构建模型时，他们是否应该假设一个正常化的毛利率区间，大概在 mid-70s（70 多）这个范围，对吧？大致就是你今天所处水平与此前峰值之间的那个区间。如果你能帮我们厘清一下近期该怎么看 86% 之外的毛利率，以及更长期来看，看待这些毛利率如何演变的正确方式是什么。

Thank you. Yeah. So, VCC, we're we're not um we're not providing uh guidance beyond the fourth quarter. Um but we we are at margin levels that um uh you know, as we've talked about before, um incremental price uh yields less in gross margin expansion. Um so um so while the you know but having said that we do we we do see as we mentioned uh we updated our view on uh market conditions that we expect the market to remain tight uh beyond uh 2027.

谢谢。是的。所以，Vivek，我们不提供第四季度以外的指引。但我们正处于这样的毛利率水平：正如我们之前谈过的，增量价格在毛利率扩张上带来的贡献越来越少。所以话虽如此，我们确实看到，正如我们提到的，我们更新了我们对市场状况的看法，我们预期市场会保持紧张（tight），持续到 2027 年之后。

Um you know we also have um you know we're at a point where memory is uh very much appreciated for the uh strategic asset that it is um the value that it brings to um improving AI intelligence and you know more and higher performance memory is needed and so um you know our continued deployment of bits to um you know uh data center and edge device. uh higher performance applications um is going to be helpful um as price moderates and uh price growth moderates and we move to um uh you know optimize the placement of our bids uh with customers including those that we do these uh have done these SCAS with and then also as we've talked about we will get um additional volume um starting midyear uh materially beginning um midyear 27 that

你知道，我们也处在这样一个时点：内存非常被珍视，作为它本身就是的那种战略性资产，以及它在提升 AI 智能方面所带来的价值。你知道，需要更多、更高性能的内存，所以我们持续向数据中心和边缘设备、更高性能的应用部署比特，随着价格趋缓、价格增长趋缓，这会有帮助。而我们转向优化我们比特的投放，与客户一起，包括那些我们已经签了这些 SCA 的客户，然后，正如我们谈过的，我们会获得额外的量，从 27 年年中开始、实质性地从 27 年年中开始，

will grow into into 28 and you know we will um you know we will have some startup costs there but we will get uh you know absorption as that as those ramps uh occur and um so over time um you know we'll get that um uh operating leverage um you know so I I think we feel great about the trajectory of the business. Uh Micron's technology position uh worldclass product portfolio and you can see we're operating very well and uh all those are supportive of um you know continuing to deliver um a strong financial performance.

这会成长到 28 年，你知道，我们在那里会有一些启动成本（startup costs），但随着这些产能爬坡发生，我们会获得（成本）摊薄。所以随着时间推移，你知道，我们会得到经营杠杆（operating leverage）。所以我想我们对业务的发展轨迹感觉很好。Micron 的技术地位、世界级的产品组合，你可以看到我们运营得非常好，所有这些都支撑着我们持续交付强劲的财务表现。

Thank you. Your final question comes from the line of Kish Sankar with TD Cowan. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Yeah. Hi. Thanks for doing my question. I have two of them. Sanjay uh or Mark. Uh congrats on the great results. Uh on the floor pricing for the LTAs, you said about the prior peak, you know, your prior peak gross margin of somewhere in the low 60 62% range.

谢谢。 （主持人）您的最后一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。您的线路已接通，请讲。 （Krish Sankar）是的，你好。谢谢你回答我的问题。我有两个问题。Sanjay 或者 Mark。恭喜取得出色的业绩。关于 LTA 的 floor pricing（下限定价），你说到此前的峰值，你知道，你此前的峰值毛利率在 low 60s、62% 左右的范围。

Uh, if I try to plug in what a 64 GB server DAM is, you know, I can get like a $700 price for it compared to $1,500 today, which kind of puts you at like 10 to 12 a gigabyte as the floor and a mid $20 a gigabyte for the current price. Is that the range you should think about uh for these LTAs? i.e. load teams to mid20s dollars a gigabyte is kind of like the range of uh LTA for the pricing.

如果我试着代入一个 64GB 的 server DRAM（服务器 DRAM）会是什么价位，你知道，我能算出大约 700 美元的价格，对比今天的 1,500 美元，这大致让你处在每 GB 10 到 12 美元作为 floor，而当前价格大约是每 GB 20 多美元（mid $20）。这是不是你应该考虑的、这些 LTA 的区间？也就是说，每 GB 从 low-teens（十几美元）到 mid-20s（20 多美元）大致就是 LTA 定价的区间？

So Chris we not going to get into specific pricing discussions but I just want to note again that I said that uh the gross margins at the floor will be uh well beyond uh the peaks uh that we experienced uh the highs that we experienced in the past cycle. So well beyond those right but we are not going to obviously get into the specifics uh related to the pricing.

所以，Krish，我们不会进入具体的定价讨论，但我只想再次指出，我说过 floor 处的毛利率会远超出我们过去周期所经历的峰值、所经历的高点。所以远超那些，对吧，但我们显然不会进入与定价相关的具体细节。

Bottom line is you know these SCAS really help provide uh visibility strength and durability of demand for us and they absolutely fundamentally uh accelerate our financial uh performance and financial the business transformation here. very helpful Sanjay and just as a quick followup you kind of mentioned how Dambit should grow low to mid 20s nan probably in the 20% range this year and clearly we are under supplied on both is there a way to quantify what happens in 2027 is there a way to say is the under supply going to be double what it is this year in 2027 or how to think about uh the supply demand imbalance in 2027 um you know we see 2027 uh overall uh tight.

底线是，你知道，这些 SCA 确实帮助我们提供了需求的可见度、强度和持久性，它们绝对从根本上加速了我们的财务表现以及这里的业务转型。 （Krish Sankar）非常有帮助，Sanjay。作为一个快速的追问，你提到了 DRAM 比特今年应该会增长 low to mid 20s（20% 出头），NAND 大概在 20% 左右，而显然我们在两者上都供应不足，有没有办法量化 2027 年会发生什么？有没有办法说，2027 年的供应不足会是今年的两倍吗，或者该如何看待 2027 年的供需失衡？ （Sanjay Mehrotra）嗯，你知道，我们看到 2027 年总体偏紧（tight）。

We have said we see tightness continuing beyond 2027. um you know working hard to bring up supply but we have shared with you that it takes a long time to bring up the additional capacity that is needed uh to support the customer demands the additional wafer capacity and of course technology transitions and the less bit gain that they give per node as well as the HBM trade ratio put tremendous pressure on the overall supply growth as well.

我们已经说过，我们看到紧张状况会持续到 2027 年之后。你知道，我们在努力提升供应，但我们已经向你们说明，要提升所需的额外产能需要很长时间——额外的晶圆产能，当然还有技术换代，以及它们每个制程节点带来的比特增益（bit gain）更少，以及 HBM 的 trade ratio，都对整体供应增长造成了巨大压力。

Uh so supply um even in 2028 uh when uh supply begins to improve gradually um we see that the demand will continue uh to be on a robust trajectory as well because these AI trends are very long-term trends. AI is still in very very early innings. Um the whole token econ economics needs more memory. A system AI system performance is uh really very much limited by memory capacity and um memory performance, memory bandwidth.

所以供应，即便在 2028 年，当供应开始逐步改善时，我们看到需求也会继续处于强劲的轨迹上，因为这些 AI 趋势是非常长期的趋势。AI 仍然处于非常非常早期的阶段。整个 token 经济学需要更多内存。一个 AI 系统的系统性能其实非常受限于内存容量、内存性能、内存带宽。

So you know the demand for memory is you know as the compute demand grows and our customers look at a tremendous uh transformation opportunity that is ahead of them this you know and continue to make investments like they have never made before to build this infrastructure. The demand trajectory is extremely strong. uh memory is at the center of it and is is a strategic asset and access to memory supply is obviously a critical priority as you can see in the uh multi-year agreements that our customers have concluded uh with us.

所以，你知道，对内存的需求，随着算力需求增长，以及我们的客户面对他们前方巨大的转型机遇，他们在以前所未有的方式持续投资，去构建这些基础设施。需求轨迹极其强劲。内存处于其中心，是一项战略性资产，而获得内存供应显然是一个关键优先事项，正如你可以从我们客户与我们达成的这些多年期协议中看到的那样。

I mean those agreements reflect um the confidence in the growth of the demand. So we are working hard to bring up supply but we see tightness persisting beyond 2020 level. Thanks for watching. Really appreciate it.

我是说，那些协议反映了对需求增长的信心。所以我们在努力提升供应，但我们看到紧张状况会持续到 2027 年之后。 （主持人）谢谢收看，非常感谢。

This

本次（电话会议结束）。

concludes today's call. Thank you. What did you think about Micron Micron price action? We are now up 13.4%. A lot of questions about these long-term agreements, that's for sure. There's almost every single question.

今天的电话会到此结束。谢谢。你怎么看 Micron 的股价表现?我们现在涨了 13.4%。围绕这些长协的问题真是不少,这点是肯定的。几乎每一个问题都在问这个。

Yeah. I mean, cuz I I I feel like that completely changes the business, right, Tanner? It it um if there is a down cycle, that completely um protects it from anything. And they even mentioned kind of the floor on it is higher than uh the peaks of prior cycles. And I was looking at prior cycles and the prior cycles like the the highest peak was around 61 62%.

是啊。我是说,因为我感觉这彻底改变了这门生意,对吧 Tanner?如果出现一个下行周期,这会彻底地保护它不受任何冲击。他们甚至还提到说,这个 floor 都比之前周期的峰值还要高。我之前在看以前的周期,以前的周期里最高的峰值大概在 61、62% 左右。

Uh so so they're saying the the lower end of it um is still going to be a 60% 62% gross margins and and and they don't expect it to happen there. But um I I think that that was the that these changes are is what's really going to if one is looking for a complete re-evaluation of Micron's PE ratio from your typical below 10 to maybe a more typical semiconductor industry player.

呃,所以他们说的是,这个区间的下限仍然会是 60%、62% 的毛利率,而且他们并不指望真会跌到那里。但我想这就是这些变化的意义所在——如果有人在期待 Micron 的市盈率被彻底重估,从你们通常看到的 10x 以下,重估到一个更典型的半导体行业玩家的水平。

I think that's the business or the avenue that kind of changes it. So I wonder if that's why analysts were really focusing um on that space a lot. Yeah. Yeah. They also said something in that quarter or in the call that I thought was interesting where they said that their newly acquired uh fabrication sites in Taiwan which are expecting to you know add meaningful amounts of product shipments once they get up to uh like transforming them to Micron's technology that uh they'll be able to get that out by early 2028.

我觉得正是这门生意、或者说这条路径改变了它。所以我在想这是不是分析师为什么这么聚焦在这块领域。是啊。是啊。他们在那个季度、或者说在电话会里还说了一件我觉得挺有意思的事,他们说他们在台湾新收购的那几个晶圆厂——预计一旦改造成 Micron 的技术、把产能提上来,就能带来相当可观的产品出货量——他们说能在 2028 年初把货做出来。

Well, now they believe they might be getting it a quarter earlier than prior expectations. And now looking more closely to midcal 2027. That's the earliest date I think I've heard from any of the memory names because a lot of them was, you know, Q4 2027 or Q1 2028. Now we're seeing mid 2027. That's that's earlier. I I I also wonder uh Tanner if these long-term contracts is giving them let's say I was in a business right and and I was in a business that typically is very cyclical I am always I'm I'm going to try my hardest to not completely starve the market but I will take my time to to delay things but then if I I come up with a customer and my customers are now willing to make long-term agreements and and

现在呢,他们认为可能会比之前的预期再提前一个季度。现在更接近 2027 年中了。这是我从所有内存厂里听到的最早的日期,因为他们很多人之前都是,你懂的,2027 年 Q4 或者 2028 年 Q1。现在我们看到的是 2027 年中。这要早多了。Tanner,我还在想,这些长协是不是给了他们……比方说我在做一门生意,对吧,而且这门生意通常是非常周期性的,那我会一直、我会拼尽全力不让市场彻底饿死,但我会慢慢来、拖一拖出货节奏。可一旦我找到了一个客户,而且我的客户们现在愿意签长协了,那么……

these long-term contracts I'll be like oh wow look I can actually move this a quarter or two ahead because now I don't have to worry about what happens if I overflood the market. Um, so I'm c I wonder if any of that is happening here where they are like, "Oh yeah, we can actually now where we have 13 out of whatever number." Um, and and someone's saying that's illegal, but I'm pretty sure there's they have plenty of lawyers to showcase that.

有了这些长协,我就会想,哦哇,你看,我其实可以把这个提前一两个季度,因为现在我不用再担心如果我把市场灌得太满会怎么样了。嗯,所以我在想这里是不是正在发生这种事,他们就像是,"哦对,我们现在其实可以——我们已经有 13 个、在多少个里面有 13 个了。"嗯,还有人说那是违法的,但我挺确定他们有的是律师能证明这没问题。

Oh, no, there's actually we were doing it the legal way, right? It's like, oh, we were able to actually find a way to improve it. Yeah, they were uh just waiting on building supplies and then the sign these multiund billion dollar contracts. They go, "Oh, you know what? The lumber's right here. Let's go ahead and set up that data center or that that fabrication space."

哦不,其实是我们是用合法的方式在做,对吧?就像是,哦,我们其实找到了一个改进它的办法。是啊,他们之前只是在等建设物料,然后签下这些数十亿美元的合同。他们说,"哦,你知道吗?木料就在这儿。我们干脆就把那个数据中心、或者那块晶圆厂的场地给搭起来吧。"

Um that's too funny cuz I mean it's great. 8 what was it? 84 86% margins on the That is wild. That is crazy. 84.6 this quarter, 86 next quarter. That is insane. 86 like we're getting close. You know, whenever a company improves their margins from 14% to 16%, you know, that's a 2% improvement. It's okay.

嗯,这太好笑了,因为我是说这太棒了。8……是多少来着?那个上面的 84、86% 毛利率,这太疯狂了。这太离谱了。本季度 84.6,下季度 86。这太夸张了。86,我们都快接近了。你知道,每当一家公司把毛利率从 14% 提到 16%,你知道,那是 2% 的提升,还行。

To go from 84 to 86 is no longer just a 2% improvement. It's like exponential improvement. It would be like going from like, think about it this way. If you were to go from 96 to 98% margins, that gets so so so much harder. Or 98 to 100%. you know, 2% is not just an easy 2%. It gets extremely hard near the end of the race there.

但从 84 提到 86 就不再只是 2% 的提升了。这简直是指数级的提升。这就好比——这么想吧,如果你要从 96% 提到 98% 毛利率,那会变得难太多太多了。或者从 98% 提到 100%,你知道,那 2% 可不是轻轻松松的 2%。越到终点那一段,它会变得极其极其难。

Um, so they're squeezing out every last drop that they can get from their customers and their customers are willing to shill or or to to pay up because well, their end customers, the the the end customer, me tapping into Gemini or myself tapping into OpenAI, I'm paying more for uh my services with them and I'm bringing on my team and, you know, all of these different things.

嗯,所以他们在把能从客户身上压榨出来的每一滴都压榨出来,而他们的客户愿意掏钱、愿意付高价,因为——嗯,他们的终端客户,那个终端客户,比如我去用 Gemini、或者我自己去用 OpenAI,我为他们的服务付更多的钱,我还在扩我的团队,你懂的,所有这些不同的东西。

So, um, and, um, what else did I, another random thought I had is, well, first they mentioned they only with their long-term agreements or I forget whatever they call them. Um, these customers, yeah, they have 20% of DRAM volume at the moment and one-third like is is the other 80% of DRAM just going to be at market price or or or is it because they still haven't signed everything?

所以,嗯,我还有一个随机冒出来的想法是,呃,首先他们提到,在他们的长协里、或者不管他们管它叫什么……嗯,这些客户,对,他们目前有 20% 的 DRAM 量、还有三分之一……是不是另外那 80% 的 DRAM 就会按市价走?还是说因为他们还没把所有东西都签完?

Like my my question is like I wonder if we're going to hear later on, but what's the goal? Like how much of do they want to be 100% of their output o of their supply to pretty much be in these long-term agreements? Um, and I don't know if that was the question maybe and I know I've stepped out a few times, but do they have a goal of like this is what we want to be in these partnership agreements and this is what we want to have at market price and willing to play with other w with with other customers as well.

我的问题是,我在想我们是不是以后会听到——他们的目标是什么?就是他们想让自己产出、自己供应的多大比例基本都放进这些长协里?嗯,我不知道那是不是有人问过的问题,我知道我中途出去过几次,但他们有没有一个目标,就是"这是我们想放进伙伴协议里的量,这是我们想留在市价、愿意跟其他客户去博弈的量"。

Yeah, I think that's fair. Um, I'm sure it's not 100%, but the longer that you can get these three or even fiveyear contracts really does prove out long-term durable earnings to shareholders. I'm sure to some extent, you know, the market wants to see customer diversification, but more than customer diversification, they want to see, you know, multiple years of actual growth.

是啊,我觉得这说得有道理。嗯,我敢肯定不会是 100%,但你越能签下这些三年、甚至五年的合同,就越能向股东证明长期、可持续的盈利。我敢肯定在某种程度上,你知道,市场想看到客户多元化,但比起客户多元化,他们更想看到的是,你知道,实打实的多年增长。

Yeah. And it seems that's the micron problem, you know, it's it's how are people going to show up after 2030 or something like this. Like will will new innovations like 3D RAM or something like this end up destroying margins over time? People are still going to be worried about this.

是啊。看起来这就是 Micron 的难题,你知道,就是 2030 年之后人们会怎么出现、怎么看待它。比如说像 3D RAM 这样的新创新,会不会最终随着时间推移把毛利率给摧毁掉?人们还是会担心这个的。

I don't know. Yeah. It it's And I'm I'm curious. I wonder if in these long-term agreements and and contracts or part whatever they call them. Um, I know you just already brought it up already, but does it talk about they need to also meet some form of technological leaps, right? Because what I I feel like one of the things at least these three players uh SKH Highix, Micron, and Samsung, the reason they've been innovating at crazy levels is because they historically know that this market is cyclical.

我不知道。是啊。这……我挺好奇的。我在想,在这些长协、合同、或者不管他们管那部分叫什么里面……嗯,我知道你刚刚已经提到过了,但里面有没有谈到他们也需要达成某种形式的技术飞跃,对吧?因为我觉得——至少这三个玩家,呃 SK Hynix、Micron 和 Samsung,他们之所以一直在以疯狂的水平搞创新,是因为他们历来都知道这个市场是周期性的。

So the only way to kind of eliminate the cyclicality um and be more of a pricing power player is by innovating at higher levels. But now if you have these long-term agreements and un I'm I'm going to guess there's some form of tech innovation space. But does that eliminate a little bit of the hunger here? And if you eliminate a little bit of the hunger, does it allow those other companies that might be smaller in the memory space that are hungry to innovate and kind of catch up like right obviously more of like just overall cultural thinking and I don't think that's going to change but um some things that just kind of pop up in my mind when we we we hear some things here.

所以,要消除这种周期性、要成为一个更有定价权的玩家,唯一的办法就是在更高的层次上去创新。但现在如果你有了这些长协,而且——我猜里面会有某种形式的技术创新条款。但这会不会稍微消除一点这里的那种饥饿感?而如果你消除了一点这种饥饿感,会不会让那些在内存领域可能更小、但渴望创新的公司有机会追赶上来?就像——显然这更多是一种整体的文化思维,我不觉得那会改变,但嗯,这就是我们在这儿听到一些东西时,脑子里会冒出来的一些念头。

I uh I think just going back to the overall numbers that we ended up seeing, not just from the call, but AI demand is still absolutely here. I think any talk of is AI a bubble uh needs to be shredded along with the rest of your bad ideas. um the there is an insatiable demand right now and there's a lot of opportunity in the bottlenecks here where is artificial intelligence facing its biggest crux whether that was CPUs like realizing that CPUs need to be a huge part of aic artificial intelligence uh co-ackage optics copper um memory you know data center real estate in general.

我——我想回到我们最终看到的那些整体数字上来,不只是这场电话会里的,而是说 AI 需求绝对还在这儿。我觉得任何关于"AI 是不是泡沫"的说法,都该跟你其余那些糟糕想法一起被撕碎。嗯,现在有一种无止境的需求,而且这些瓶颈里有大量的机会——人工智能在哪儿面临它最大的关卡,无论那是 CPU——意识到 CPU 需要成为人工智能的一个巨大组成部分——呃 co-packaged optics、铜缆,嗯内存,你懂的,还有整体上的数据中心地产。

Nvidia's been making a lot of chips. Where do you even put them? There's so many different of these areas and I'm trying to hunt out as many as possible. But that's why I follow the great and powerful Jose Naro. So, uh I mean this memory play is just so crazy because then it's it's it's just there's just so many questions like what ends up happening to the pricing?

Nvidia 一直在造大量芯片。你到底要把它们放哪儿?有这么多不同的这类领域,我正在尽可能多地把它们猎出来。但这也是为什么我会关注那位伟大而强大的 Jose Naro。所以,呃,我是说这个内存的玩法实在太疯狂了,因为接下来——就是有太多的问题了,比如定价最后会变成什么样?

How does we we see other players increase pricing, right? How how much does pricing does Nvidia increase to make sure they maintain uh their margins, right? What are these other players going to uh be doing because not a lot of people are um not many companies are going to be eating the cost, right? We even see in the consumer space where Apple mentioned that now they're going to start increasing prices of of their iPhones just because of the increase.

我们怎么看到其他玩家提价的,对吧?Nvidia 要提多少价才能确保维持住它的毛利率,对吧?这些其他玩家又会去做什么,因为没多少人——没多少公司会自己去吞掉这个成本,对吧?我们甚至在消费端都看到了,Apple 提到说他们现在要开始提高 iPhone 的价格了,就因为这个上涨。

Um, so kind of like what does that affect us downstream throughout the whole industry? Like if you're increasing prices, it's I don't know. It's a lot of information to take in from this earnings call. I mean, I think for the memory players, a lot of bullish takes. A lot and a lot of bullish takes. I think a lot of the bearish takes are more of like what if this happens is I I don't think we have like a there's like a concrete bearish case from that earnings call.

嗯,所以这有点像——这对我们在整个行业的下游会有什么影响?比如如果你在提价,那……我不知道。从这场财报电话会里要消化的信息真的太多了。我是说,我觉得对内存玩家来说,有很多看多的观点。很多很多看多的观点。我觉得很多看空的观点更多像是"万一发生这个会怎样"——我不觉得我们有一个——从那场财报电话会里没有一个具体的看空理由。

It's more like what if this person does this or what if that. Um but at least for the bullish case, I I think the bulls can say look, there's all this data right here that we can uh that we can showcase. Yeah. Um I I was just going to say I think there's going to be a flurry of analyst upgrades over the next few days.

更多是像"万一这个人做了这个会怎样"、"或者那个会怎样"。嗯,但至少对看多的理由来说,我——我觉得看多的人可以说,看,这儿就摆着所有这些数据,我们可以拿来展示。是啊。嗯,我刚想说,我觉得接下来这几天会有一波分析师上调。

I'm interested to see where Micron's price goes through the next week. I'm curious your thoughts. I think uh we're going to head into all-time highs, but I'm like your thoughts. Yeah, I I first I'm just so flabbergasted is is that the correct word to correct term to say say sure um of how wrong analysts have been in this one, right? In in at least in the pricing power because we haven't really seen an increase in volume, right?

我很有兴趣看 Micron 的股价在接下来一周会走到哪儿。我好奇你的想法。我觉得呃我们会冲进历史新高,但我想听听你的想法。是啊,我——首先我只是太目瞪口呆了——"flabbergasted"这个词用得对吗,这个说法对吗——说"sure"吧——就是分析师在这一只上错得有多离谱,对吧?至少在定价权这块,因为我们其实并没有看到出货量的增长,对吧?

The only thing you're really seeing a massive increase is on pricing. And you would think that these players that that follow this market can call their supply line and say, "Hey, what did you guys increase your like what what what did you see?" So, it's to me it would be I I think that's one of the in like I think for Nvidia it was just like the demand.

你真正看到大幅增长的唯一一样东西就是定价。你会觉得这些跟踪这个市场的玩家可以打电话给他们的供应线问,"嘿,你们涨了——你们看到了什么?"所以,对我来说这会——我觉得这是其中一个——比如,我觉得对 Nvidia 来说那纯粹是需求的问题。

We didn't know how much demand was out there when Nvidia first started kind of like this whole AI market. So, analysts I think was fair for them to not really understand what's happening. But here is like supply is staying the same. Can't you just find out what the price increase is happening and really kind of be able to estimate um these revenues because they they be dramatic like by crazy numbers this quarter and guidance was insane.

当 Nvidia 刚开始搞起这整个 AI 市场的时候,我们不知道外面到底有多少需求。所以分析师们,我觉得他们当时没真正搞懂发生了什么是情有可原的。但这里是——供应是保持不变的。你难道不能直接去查清楚价格涨了多少,然后真的就能估出这些营收吗?因为它们会——本季度它们的数字大到夸张、大到疯狂,指引也是离谱地高。

And again next quarter we don't expect much volume increase either. I think they mentioned like like you mentioned 10 until mid 2027 is when we expect some form of um of massive of of noticeable supply increase. it it's funny. It's going to take some time, by the way, for analysts to even get their numbers right because and then like you said, they still might not even be right once they've done all the work.

而且再说一遍,下个季度我们也不指望出货量有多少增长。我觉得他们提到的像——像你说的——要到 2027 年中,才是我们预期会出现某种形式的、大规模的、明显的供应增长的时候。这挺好笑的。顺便说一句,分析师们要把他们的数字弄对都还得花上一段时间,因为——而且就像你说的,等他们把所有功课都做完了,他们可能还是不对。

But, um, you know, whenever I went back probably about 3 months ago reporting on Micron's numbers for this quarter that we just saw, Micron said they would do 33.5 billion. And I made a video about how Wall Street was like still projected that they were going to do like 31 billion, like under what what Micron even said that they were going to do.

但是,嗯,你知道,大概 3 个月前我做关于 Micron 这个我们刚看到的季度数字的报道时,Micron 说他们会做 335 亿。我做了个视频讲华尔街当时还在预测他们会做大概 310 亿,比 Micron 自己说要做的还要低。

It eventually got up to 35, so slightly more than what Micron had suggested. And then it what the actual number was was somewhere around 41.5 billion. Like you were off by essentially 10 billion over a 3-month period. with very limited volume increase. It was more of like a and that's the thing is like I felt like a a pricing is something that analysts should be able to it's probably not as hard for them to try to grasp uh from from all these research stuff that they have.

后来它最终涨到了 350 亿,所以比 Micron 暗示的稍微高一点。然后实际数字大概落在 415 亿左右。就是说你在 3 个月的时间里基本上差了 100 亿。而且出货量增长非常有限。它更多像是一种——而这就是关键,就是我觉得定价是分析师应该能够——对他们来说,要从他们手头所有那些研究材料里去把握它,应该没那么难。

Um but on the bright side also it did seem like they saved the AI stock market. We see a nice amount of stocks up two 3% definitely after hours. The ones obviously related to the memories play are are up a nice amount. Um SanDisk up 10.

嗯,但往好的一面看,看起来它确实救了 AI 股市。我们看到相当多的股票涨了 2、3%,盘后绝对是涨的。那些明显跟内存玩法相关的都涨了不少。嗯 SanDisk 涨了 10。

Yeah. Uh Western Digital up 10.7, Seagate up 9.8. Coreweave up 3.6. Nebus up 5%. Cipher Digital up 2.7 up 3.8. It's all positive for the AI space. The only name in here that I see down is Palanteer. Um, I'm also curious of like what these big players are seeing, right? Because I mean, I think AI is crazy, but for them to be making these crazy orders and stuff like that, I feel like they've seen something.

是啊。呃 Western Digital 涨 10.7,Seagate 涨 9.8。CoreWeave 涨 3.6。Nebius 涨 5%。Cipher 数字货币涨 2.7、涨 3.8。AI 领域全都是正的。我在这儿看到唯一下跌的名字是 Palantir。嗯,我也很好奇那些大玩家到底看到了什么,对吧?因为我是说,我觉得 AI 很疯狂,但他们要下这些疯狂的订单之类的,我觉得他们肯定是看到了什么。

They know something. uh to be made by these. I thought that before like before agents were even out, before uh codeex and before claude code, they knew those types of harnesses were coming. They knew that the coding was going to be better or at least lift 70% of the coders work almost instantly overnight. And so looking ahead, I mean to me I think it's absolutely clear that they are working with models and projects and in different applications that will replace different jobs.

他们知道点什么。呃要靠这些来做成的事。我之前就这么想——比如在 agents 都还没出来之前、在 codex 之前、在 Claude Code 之前,他们就知道那类 harness 要来了。他们知道编码会变得更好,或者至少会几乎一夜之间立刻把程序员 70% 的活给提效掉。所以往前看,我是说在我看来这绝对是清楚的:他们正在用模型、用项目、在不同的应用里做一些会替代各种工作的事。

Like there's still a lot of uh sorry I should say tasks not jobs. I'm not one of the job doomers but like um I'm getting that they will solve solve big problems. Yeah. How do you bet against that going forward?

比如还有很多呃——抱歉,我应该说任务、不是工作。我不是那种唱衰工作的人,但嗯——我感觉到他们会解决——解决大问题。是啊。你往前怎么去赌它的反面呢?

Investing in AI stocks. Yeah. Yeah, that's how I'm going to do it. And then eventually robots. You know, we're we're going to get there. Oh, man. Um, okay, Jose, you uh said you wouldn't have time to jump on, then you said you give me 30, then you g then you said you might give me an hour, and here we are two hours in, and you've been here the whole time.

投资 AI 股票。是啊。是啊,我就打算这么干。然后最终是机器人。你知道,我们——我们会走到那一步的。哦,天哪。嗯,好,Jose,你呃说你不会有时间上来,然后你说你给我 30 分钟,然后你——然后你说你可能给我一个小时,结果我们现在都进行两个小时了,你全程都在。

Yeah, my my my wife took we had a something with the little one. My wife took it, but uh we I have swim with him in a bit. So, I had to step out to put like my swim clothes, so I'm going to head out in a bit so we can go do swimming.

是啊,我我我老婆——我们跟小家伙有点事。我老婆接手了,但呃我们——我待会儿要陪他游泳。所以我得出去一下、换上我的泳衣,所以我待会儿要走了,我们好去游泳。

Well, everyone, please give Jose a follow. Thank him for the amazing stream. He is a real one as people in chat are saying. Um check out his newsletter. What the chip happened. But appreciate it, man. No, it's fun. I I like these. I mean, it's fun when I understand this market. I hate it coming in and joining you guys when it's other people. You guys talk about fintech or other boring stuff.

好,各位,请大家关注一下 Jose。感谢他带来这么棒的直播。就像聊天区里大家说的,他是个实在人。嗯,去看看他的 newsletter,《What the Chip Happened》。但太感谢了,兄弟。不,这很有意思。我——我喜欢这些。我是说,当我懂这个市场的时候这很有意思。我讨厌的是来加入你们、结果聊的是别的。你们聊金融科技或者别的无聊东西的时候。

Let's just talk about AI and semiconductors and we can all have a good time. Be honest, okay? You like SoFi and stop talking crap. All right. Uh, thanks, brother. I appreciate your time, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you so much for watching. Really do appreciate your time. Bye for now.

咱们就只聊 AI 和半导体,我们大家都能玩得开心。说实话,行吗?你就是喜欢 SoFi,别在那儿瞎说了。好了。呃,谢了,兄弟。我很感激你的时间。女士们先生们,非常感谢大家收看。真的很感激你们的时间。先这样,再见。