Runnin’ Down a Dream

[music] You're so far away.

[音乐] 你们坐得好远啊。

What's up, guys?

各位,怎么样啊?

All right, this is fun because this is the part uh this is the part of the summit where you guys are part.

好,这一段很好玩,因为这是峰会里你们也参与进来的部分。

This is kind of like a town hall.

这有点像一场市民大会。

So, start start thinking about your questions.

所以,开始想你们的问题。

Not yet, but then we'll take uh your questions for Bill.

还不到时候,但过一会儿我们会接你们向 Bill 提的问题。

But this is really fun because we got one of the world's great investors with us.

但这真的很好玩,因为我们请到了世界上最顶尖的投资人之一。

um you know Zillow, Uber, OpenTable, I mean you know winner after winner after winner.

Zillow、Uber、OpenTable,一个又一个又一个大赢家。

But what's fun is that today instead of being one of the world's greatest investors, we have the world's tallest mentor.

但好玩的是,今天他不是作为世界最伟大的投资人之一出场,我们请到的是全世界最高的导师。

Um I was with Bill, we both gave TED talks last week.

上周我和 Bill 在一起,我们俩都做了 TED 演讲。

We were both in Vancouver.

我们俩都在温哥华。

Uh shameless self-promotion.

无耻地自我推销一下。

My TED talk was released yesterday.

我的 TED 演讲昨天上线了。

Okay.

好。

So, if you want to go to go to TED, I am at the top talking about philanthropy and billionaires.

所以,如果你想上 TED 看,我就在最上面,讲慈善和亿万富翁。

Uh, check it out.

去看看吧。

Bill's Talk.

Bill 的演讲。

We're getting a preview because Bill's talk's not out yet, but I got to see Bill talk.

我们今天算是提前看个预览,因为 Bill 的演讲还没放出来,但我提前看到了 Bill 讲。

Uh, this guy has a lot of wisdom for this crowd.

这家伙有一肚子智慧,正好是给这群人的。

And he's got a new book out called Runnin' Down a Dream.

他还出了本新书,叫《Runnin' Down a Dream》。

And we got a bunch of dreamers here.

而我们这儿坐着一群追梦的人。

So, with that, Bill, what?

那么,说到这儿,Bill,什么?

So tell us real quick the thesis of your book because really it's a book for this audience.

快跟我们说说你这本书的核心论点,因为它真的就是为这群听众写的。

Yeah, I I've come to believe that there are too many people that are um chasing a career that they were pushed towards thought was the smartest thing to do and it doesn't necessarily overlap with something they're fascinated with.

是,我慢慢相信,有太多人在追一份别人推着他们去追、被认为最聪明的职业,而它并不一定跟他们着迷的东西有重叠。

And we could go into more detail, but the people that are in careers where they're fascinated are going to learn faster.

我们可以再讲细一点,但身处让自己着迷的职业里的人,会学得更快。

They're going to do more.

他们会做得更多。

They're going to run more.

他们会跑得更多。

They're going to get noticed.

他们会被人注意到。

They're going to be wildly successful.

他们会取得惊人的成功。

And AI makes that even more true because the best that I've seen pick this stuff up and they run even faster.

而 AI 让这一点更加成立,因为我见过的最顶尖的那些人,一上手就把这些东西学会,然后跑得还要更快。

I mean, one negative might be you could see a further kind of separation, like inequality separation, but but I do fear there are way too many young people that are that are grinding for the sake of grinding and achievement that aren't um living the best life they possibly could be living.

要说负面,可能是你会看到进一步的某种分化,比如不平等的分化,但我确实担心,有太多太多年轻人只是为了埋头苦干本身、为了成就而埋头苦干,没有过上他们本可以过的最好人生。

And I wanted to give more people more permission to do that thing.

我想给更多人更多许可,去做那件事。

What um you say uh fascinating, right?

你说的是“着迷”,对吧?

you're fascinated with.

你为之着迷的东西。

How does it, you know, we've all seen like follow your passion.

它怎么—— 我们都见过那种“追随你的热情”。

That's the cliche.

那是老套的说法。

Follow your passion.

追随你的热情。

You're using a different word.

你用的是另一个词。

Is that is that the same?

那是 那是一样的吗?

Is

是不是

No, I I actually borrowed the word from Jerry Seinfeld, but he gave a Duke commencement speech.

不,我 我其实是从 Jerry Seinfeld 那儿借来这个词的,他做过一次 Duke 的毕业演讲。

But I think fascination um involves work in that when you're fascinated by something, you're endlessly curious about it and you just constantly want to study it and know more

但我觉得着迷里是包含下功夫的,因为当你对某样东西着迷,你会对它有无穷的好奇,你就是会不停地想去研究它、想知道更多

like like a puzzle.

像 像一道谜题。

Yeah.

对。

And so much of what separates an individual for success is understanding nuance.

而让一个人跟别人拉开差距、走向成功的,很大程度上就是对细微之处的理解。

And innovation is really about understanding nuance because it's the edge of disruption in your field.

而创新其实就是理解细微之处,因为那就是你这个领域里颠覆发生的边缘。

And it and in order to get from the the history to the bedrock to the nuance is just requires tons of reps at this thing.

而 而要从 从历史、到基石、再到细微之处,就是需要在这件事上做大量反复。

Yes.

是。

And if you study something you don't like, you get tired.

而如果你研究的是你不喜欢的东西,你会累。

You're like, "Oh, you have to take breaks."

你会说:“哦,得歇一会儿。”

Yeah.

对。

Everyone's done that in school.

每个人在学校都干过这事。

But but when you're studying something you

但 但当你研究的是你

like accounting class for most of these people.

比如会计课,对这里大多数人。

So, right.

所以,对吧。

Yeah.

对。

When you're studying something you love, you just do it on your own.

当你研究的是你热爱的东西,你自己就会去做。

I think one great test is does it compete with social media or Netflix or something else that you'd be doing in your spare time, right?

我觉得有个很好的检验:它能不能跟社交媒体、Netflix,或者你空闲时会做的其他事竞争,对吧?

Are you more oh there's a breakthrough in your field.

你会不会更 哦,你的领域里出了个突破。

Do you are you more drawn to that almost as a piece of content?

你会不会 你会不会更被它吸引,几乎是把它当成一条内容在看?

But then how do you nuance that versus the word passion?

那你怎么把它跟“热情”这个词区分得更细?

Because you you know what's the difference between fascination and passion?

因为你—— 着迷和热情的区别到底是什么?

I think there's lots of people that could claim to be passionated passionate about something just because they're kind of infatuated with the idea.

我觉得有很多人可以声称自己对某件事有热情 有热情,只是因为他们有点迷恋这个念头。

But if it doesn't then lead to reps and work, then I I think it's kind of short-lived or or or there's not there's no motor that's going to accelerate you past everybody else.

但如果它接下来没有带来大量反复和投入,那我 我觉得它就有点短暂,或者 或者 或者没有 没有一台发动机能把你加速到超过所有人。

Let let me uh you've probably seen, you know, Scott Galloway went viral, you know, with his career advice, which is like don't chase what you're interested in.

让 让我 你大概看到了,Scott Galloway 靠他那套职业建议火了,那建议就是:别去追你感兴趣的东西。

Chase what you're good at.

去追你擅长的东西。

Yeah.

对。

And you'll become passionate about what you're good at because you prove you're making money from it.

然后你会对你擅长的东西产生热情,因为你证明了自己能靠它赚钱。

Do you agree or disagree with that?

你同意还是不同意?

I I I don't buy into it really.

我 我 我其实并不认同。

And I was actually on his podcast and we talked about it a little bit, but I don't think there's any spirit to that.

我还上过他的播客,我们稍微聊过这个,但我觉得那里面没有任何精神气。

Like there's no like I think when you talk to somebody who's passionate I mean who's fascinated with something like you can sense it you can see it you can feel this kind of um like they they idolize the idea of being good in that field and and I just don't think you get that with just oh I'm good at this thing

就是没有 我觉得当你跟一个有热情的人聊 我是说跟一个对某件事着迷的人聊,你能感觉到,你能看出来,你能体会到那种 他们 他们把在那个领域做得好这件事当偶像一样崇拜,而 而我就是觉得,光凭“哦我擅长这个”,是得不到那种感觉的

right when you make investments I mean you have hundreds of founders coming in front you every year.

对,你做投资的时候,每年有几百个创始人坐到你面前。

Do are you looking for that?

你 你找的就是这个吗?

Have you

你有没有

you know I had a chance to interview Bezos once and was asking him how he did so many great angel investments and he he said because he's busy with that day job, right?

我曾经有机会采访过 Bezos 一次,问他怎么做成了那么多出色的天使投资,他 他说因为他还有那份正职要忙,对吧?

He said he just really looks for this kind of unbridled determinism that you can't stop, right?

他说他真正找的就是那种一往无前的决心,你拦都拦不住,对吧?

And I think there's an element of that and what I'm talking about like you sense this person is going to be so deep in what they're doing and understand every little bit of it that uh that you have high confidence they're going to be successful.

我觉得我说的这件事里也有这个成分——你能感觉到这个人会在自己做的事情里钻得极深,把每一个细枝末节都搞明白,以至于 以至于你非常有信心他会成功。

You're often betting on people that are riding new technology waves.

你押的往往是那些正踩在新技术浪潮上的人。

And I think for the most part tech founders are always infatu their their fascination is the edge of what the technology can accomplish.

我觉得多数科技创始人总是很迷—— 他们 他们着迷的是技术能做到的那个边缘。

And you see people repot themselves.

你会看到有人给自己换盆。

I I like to point out Bret Taylor who we've backed three different times.

我 我喜欢举 Bret Taylor 的例子,我们前后投过他三次。

You know, he he was doing maps at Google and then he worked on social media and now he's running Sierra, which is a AI customer service play.

他 他先是在 Google 做地图,然后做社交媒体,现在他在经营 Sierra,一家做 AI 客服的公司。

He's just always right there as the thing changes and on top of the next thing.

事情一变,他总是正好就在那儿,而且已经站在了下一件事的上头。

H how is this, you know, you've had a couple different careers within your career.

这 这个是怎么——你在自己的职业生涯里做过好几段不同的职业。

How is this mindset, you know, how did you apply it to yourself?

这套心态是怎么,你自己是怎么把它用到自己身上的?

Well,

这个嘛,

or maybe you didn't learn. So,

或者也许你没学到。所以,

no, I did.

不,我学到了。

So, so and and this, I think, is a really important message for young people.

所以,所以 而且 而且我觉得,这是给年轻人的一条非常重要的信息。

Um, I had a three-year career as a computer engineer.

我做过三年计算机工程师。

Decided that wasn't my dream job.

后来判定那不是我的理想工作。

Partially by asking myself, do I see myself doing this 30 years from now?

一部分原因是我问自己:30 年后,我还能想象自己在做这件事吗?

I went to MBA school.

我去读了 MBA。

I went to Wall Street.

我去了 Wall Street。

worked there for three years, had the same discussion with myself which got me looking in a different direction, went to went to Silicon Valley and then I was a venture capitalist for 25 years.

在那儿干了三年,又跟自己做了同样一场对话,这让我开始朝另一个方向找,去了 去了 Silicon Valley,然后我做了 25 年风险投资人。

So the first two things didn't take me to that place.

所以前两件事没有把我带到那个地方。

They were stepping stones.

它们是垫脚石。

They weren't a waste of time.

它们不是浪费时间。

But it's okay to change if you're not there.

但如果你还没到那儿,换一换是可以的。

And and the journey to find it um can be can be multi-step.

而且 而且找到它的这段路,可以是 可以是分好几步的。

your um your investing career.

你的,你的投资生涯。

You've you know again you've one of the very first investors in Uber uh you know just again dozens of winners.

你,还是那句话,你是 Uber 最早的投资人之一,还是那句话,几十个赢家。

You you've seen you know you're very good at pattern pattern recognition.

你,你见过,你非常擅长模式,模式识别。

How does that apply to kind of this philosophy in terms of when people are trying to figure out what's my thing?

当人们试图弄清楚「什么才是属于我的那件事」时,这一点怎么用到这套理念上?

Uh in terms of and especially right now with what is happening with AI there's all these notes out there you know we got a lot of we got a lot of noise out there.

尤其是现在 AI 正在发生的这一切,外面到处都是各种说法,我们外面有很多,有很多噪音。

How do how do how do we figure out what the signal is?

我们怎么,我们怎么,我们怎么才能分辨出哪个是信号?

I mean, I I really think it comes down to um understanding whether this thing you're tilting at is something that you feel so strongly about that if you I mean one one thing I find founders sometimes don't recognize and it's gotten worse in the past two or three years.

我,我真的觉得归根到底在于,想清楚你正在死磕的这件事,是不是你在意到那种程度——如果你,我是说,有一件事我发现创始人有时候意识不到,而且过去两三年更严重了。

You might be doing this 15 years from now, right?

15 年后你可能还在做这件事,对吧?

Because a lot of founders have like me have ADHD and like bouncing all

因为很多创始人,像我一样,有 ADHD,老是跳来跳

we got a lot of ADHD in [laughter] the audience.

我们观众里有很多 ADHD [笑声]。

Let's hear for ADHD.

为 ADHD 欢呼一下。

But but you you could you know and you start hiring people and you do one round and you do another round.

但是,但是你,你可能,然后你开始招人,你做一轮融资,又做一轮融资。

You're kind of pot committed at that point.

到那个时候,你的筹码已经推进去了。

That's right.

没错。

So I'd really make sure you know and ask yourself the question if I'm still working on this 15 years from now will I be happy or not?

所以我真的会去确认清楚,问自己一个问题:如果 15 年后我还在做这件事,我会不会开心?

Yes.

对。

It's important.

这很重要。

Yes.

对。

All right.

好。

So, I'm giving everyone a five minute warning.

那么,我给大家提个五分钟提醒。

We got a microphone up there.

那上面有个话筒。

Don't don't have to line up yet because I But, uh, think of your questions for for Bill.

别,现在还不用排队,因为我,不过,想想你们要问 Bill 的问题。

At what point, Bill, does uh, your fascination uh, become stubbornness?

Bill,到什么时候,你的着迷会变成固执?

Because there is the other thing is all right, I can't see myself doing this 15 years on switch.

因为还有一件事是,好吧,我没法想象 15 年后自己还在做这个,换。

But on the flip side, maybe I'm fascinated by it, but you can be fascinated and push, but it ain't going to go anywhere.

但反过来说,也许我对它着迷,但你可以着迷、可以硬推,它就是不会有什么结果。

It's just not it's not meant to be.

就是不,就是注定不成。

Either you're not good at it or it's not a good idea.

要么是你不擅长,要么它本来就不是个好点子。

I I mean I'm probably wildly optimistic that if you're really fascinated and I learn it all that you can make a mark in almost any field.

我,我是说我大概是极其乐观的,只要你真的着迷,而且把它全学下来,你几乎在任何领域都能留下印记。

Um there are obvious categories where talent matters like pro tennis or downhill skiing and like you know the in those cases it's kind of

有些类别里天赋显然很重要,比如职业网球或者速降滑雪,还有,在那些情况下,有点

we saw Michael Phelps was here yesterday and he's like I worked harder and there was no doubt I was going to be the best in the world.

我们看到 Michael Phelps 昨天来过,他就说,我练得更狠,我毫无疑问会成为世界第一。

I can work as hard as I want.

我可以要多努力有多努力。

I was never going to even you know be within a minute of him.

我也永远不可能,甚至连跟他差一分钟以内都做不到。

But I've seen him talk and that work ethic that he had was only possible because he cared enough to go do it.

但我看过他讲话,他能有那种勤奋,只是因为他足够在意,愿意去做。

And but um in any anyway, the one thing I would say about those jobs though, whether whether it be Olympic sports or or Hollywood, there are so many support jobs around that individual job.

而且,不过,不管怎么说,关于那类工作我想说一点,不管是,不管是奥运项目还是,还是好莱坞,围绕那个个人岗位有非常多的支持性岗位。

And many of the profiles in my book are those types.

我书里写的很多人物就是这一类。

There was a a woman um that all she could think about was movies and she didn't see herself as an actress.

有一位,一位女性,她脑子里只有电影,但她并不觉得自己是当演员的。

So, she went and got a normal degree and and didn't ever consider it.

所以她去读了个普通学位,而且,而且从来没考虑过这条路。

Later, she found out, oh, there's hundreds of people that surround this individual talent role.

后来她发现,哦,围绕这个天赋型的个人角色有好几百人。

And she started as an assistant at an agency and then ended up becoming one of the biggest agents of all time.

于是她从一家经纪公司的助理做起,最后成了史上最大牌的经纪人之一。

So there are you there there are areas around these talent jobs where there's tons of other jobs.

所以有,你,在这些天赋型岗位周围有一些领域,里面有大量其他工作。

Sports analytics is another one that's a growing field

体育数据分析是另一个,是一个在成长的领域

that area.

那个领域。

Who is the uh who's the person in your book you think is most relevant to the 30 under 30 community in terms of a story that they can relate to.

书里哪个人 哪个人的故事,你觉得跟 30 under 30 这个群体最相关、最能让他们产生共鸣?

I think I can get that.

我想这个我能答。

So, I have a chapter in the book um titled Embrace Your Peers, where I encourage people to create peer circles as they're rising up.

书里我有一章叫 Embrace Your Peers(拥抱你的同辈),我在里面鼓励大家往上走的时候建立自己的同辈圈。

People that are on the same rung of the ladder as you.

就是那些跟你站在梯子同一级的人。

And there's a great story.

而且有个很棒的故事。

Um this guy Jimmy Donaldson, 17, loves YouTube, trying to figure it out.

有个小伙子叫 Jimmy Donaldson,17 岁,喜欢 YouTube,正想摸清它的门道。

There aren't that many people that had figured it out.

当时摸清了门道的人并不多。

He he creates a group of three other three other like-minded people.

他 他组了个小组,另外三个 另外三个志同道合的人。

claims they were on Skype 16 hours a day for four years and they all became millionaires.

据他说,他们连着四年每天在 Skype 上待 16 个小时,后来全都成了百万富翁。

Jimmy Jimmy's MrBeast.

Jimmy Jimmy 就是 MrBeast。

Okay, that's good. [laughter]

好,这个不错。[笑声]

That'll work.

这个能用。

And so, yeah, I think uh yeah, co-learn.

所以,对,我觉得 对,一起学。

And then he would go on to say that um he used Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 hours thing and said they this isn't precise math, but he said we got 40,000 hours because we're all learning independently sharing

他后来还说,他借用了 Malcolm Gladwell 的 10,000 hours 那套说法,说他们 这个算法不精确,但他说我们攒到了 40,000 hours,因为我们各自独立学习再互相分享

and um

还有

uh the hive mind version of the Gladwell, you know.

Gladwell 那套的蜂巢思维版。

Yeah.

对。

And people get overly worried that they have some kind of proprietary knowledge or that sharing is is not in their best interest.

很多人过度担心自己手里有某种独家知识,或者担心分享 分享不符合自己的利益。

And I'm completely on the other side.

我完全站在另一边。

I think

我觉得

you're full open kimono.

你主张完全敞开。

Yes.

是。

Yeah.

对。

Ideas are a dime a dozen.

点子多如牛毛。

The more you share, the more will come back to you.

分享得越多,回到你身上的就越多。

All right.

好的。

That that's a that's a great that's a great uh point of view for this group.

那 那是个 那是个很好的 那是个很好的视角,很适合这群人。

What's the biggest mistake either you've made in your career or somebody in your book that you think was the most instructive?

你职业生涯里犯过的最大错误,或者你书里某个人犯过的、你觉得最有教育意义的错误,是什么?

Well, the biggest mistake I made in my career is when I was three years into the venture capital business, I met Larry and Sergey at their office with 25 employees.

我职业生涯里犯的最大错误,是我干风险投资这行三年的时候,我在 Larry 和 Sergey 的办公室见了他们,当时他们有 25 名员工。

They pitch Benchmark and we failed to invest in Google that that name, you know. [laughter]

他们向 Benchmark 做了推介,我们没投进 Google,那 那个名字,你知道的。[笑声]

So, that's a that's about as big a mistake you can make.

所以,这 这差不多是你能犯的最大的错了。

I um

我 嗯

what what was the valuation when they were pitching you?

他们向你推介的时候,估值是多少?

Oh.

哦。

Um, they ended up doing the deal at 80 pre with Kleiner.

他们最后跟 Kleiner 以 80 pre 成交了。

80 million.

80 million。

80 million pre and now what's what's the mark?

80 million pre,那现在 现在的标记价是多少?

Yeah, three trillion.

是啊,3 trillion。

Yeah.

是啊。

So, huge mistake.

所以,巨大的错误。

I um [laughter] I'd like to think it kept me motivated for the next 22 years.

我 嗯 [笑声] 我倒愿意认为,这让我在接下来的 22 年里一直有动力。

What What's your favorite investment ever?

那 那你至今最喜欢的一笔投资是哪个?

Um the the the one that that had kind of the most intellectual appeal was probably OpenTable because we invested when there were three restaurants on the network and had a theory that a network effect could take place where it could tip towards winner-take-most.

那个 那个 那个算是在智识上最有吸引力的,大概是 OpenTable,因为我们投的时候,网络上有 3 家餐厅,而我们有个理论:网络效应可能出现,它可能倾斜过去,变成 winner-take-most。

And I remember being on vacation in Bali and going in a restaurant and seeing the unit there.

我还记得我在 Bali 度假,走进一家餐厅,看到那儿摆着那台设备。

Y

是——

and you know 20,000 restaurants later and just the the the fact that the idea played out in the way that we had anticipated

然后,20,000 家餐厅之后,单是这个点子按我们预想的方式走通了这件事

very satisfying

非常满足

powerful

很有力量

very satisfying.

非常满足。

How much uh uh if if folks want to ask questions while you start lining up um terms of how many how many how much have you invested over your career?

多少 如果 如果大家想提问,趁你们开始排队,那 多少 多少 你职业生涯里一共投了多少钱?

I mean it's a lot of you know a lot of checks.

那是很多 很多张支票。

So how much have you put to work?

所以你一共投出去了多少?

Oh, I I've never tried to add that up actually.

哦,我 我其实从来没试着把这个加起来算过。

And and and to to be fair, my firm um focused almost entirely on first money in early stage.

而且 而且 而且 说句公道话,我们公司几乎完全专注在早期的第一笔钱。

So, relative to the other venture capital firm, right?

所以,相对于其他风险投资机构,对吧?

We've always deployed much less money.

我们投出去的钱一直少得多。

We've never money and higher, you know, higher leverage.

我们从来没有 钱,还有更高的,更高的杠杆。

Well, there's you got a long line, Bill.

这——你这队排得挺长啊,Bill。

Look at that.

瞧瞧。

We got 10 people already.

已经有 10 个人了。

So, all right.

那,好吧。

Here's the here's the deal, guys.

规矩是这样、规矩是这样的,各位。

No pitching, you know.

不许推销项目。

Yes.

对。

You know, people like go crazy to get audience with this guy.

大家为了能见上这位一面,简直是要疯了。

So, no pitching, just asking and go identify yourself, but quick.

所以,不许推销项目,只提问,还有自我介绍,但要快。

Don't need the whole who you are, what you do in 10 seconds, and then the question.

不用把你是谁、你做什么那一整套讲全,10 秒交代完,然后提问。

Hi, Bill.

嗨,Bill。

I'm Jana Crum, a dual career real estate agent here in Phoenix, pro project manager and also a realtor.

我是 Jana Crum,在 Phoenix 做双职业的房地产经纪,专业项目经理,同时也是房产经纪人。

I've heard a lot of people talk about what you're talking about.

我听过很多人谈你在讲的这件事。

don't end up climbing the wrong ladder.

不要最后爬错梯子。

What would your advice be for someone who's 29, kind of at the juncture of going full in project management, full in as a realtor, not climbing the wrong ladder?

对一个 29 岁、有点处在 juncture 这个位置上的人——要么全力做项目管理,要么全力做房产经纪,又不能爬错梯子——你的建议是什么?

Yeah.

嗯。

Well, I wrote a book about it so you could get make sure you get a copy.

我为这事写了本书,所以你可以拿——你一定要弄一本。

Um, I'd really Angela Duckworth has this phrase.

我真的会——Angela Duckworth 有句话。

She says move be she said move towards warmth and nutrients.

她说,朝着——她说,朝着温暖和养分的方向走。

Like I would really um ask yourself which what which which of these things pulls at you the most?

我真的会问问自己,这些事里哪个、哪个、哪个最牵动你?

Like which one are you really most curious about?

你对哪一个真的最好奇?

And one thing you could do in any of these situation is just role plays.

而不管碰到哪种情况,有件事你都能做,就是角色扮演。

So spend a week telling yourself it's definitely going to be this one thing and study that week.

所以花一周时间告诉自己,肯定就是这一件事,然后那一周就研究它。

take notes that week and then the next week tell yourself as a game, I'm only going to do this and then do that and then after two weeks I think you'll probably have a good point.

那一周做笔记,然后下一周,当成一个游戏告诉自己,我只做这个,然后就那么做,两周之后我想你大概就有个不错的判断了。

That's an AB test.

那就是个 A/B test。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Your own AB test.

你自己的 A/B test。

Thank you.

谢谢你。

Hi Bill, my name is Pra.

嗨 Bill,我叫 Pra。

I'm building an AI drug discovery startup using an NVIDIA award-winning AI model and mini brains called organoids to accelerate drug discovery for Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, and other brain diseases.

我在做一家 AI 药物发现创业公司,用一个拿过 NVIDIA 大奖的 AI 模型,加上叫做类器官的迷你大脑,来加速针对帕金森、阿尔茨海默和其他脑部疾病的药物发现。

And I just wanted to ask you because I'm obsessed on LinkedIn and looking at venture capitalists outlook on this industry and a lot of them seem to agree that um using technology for health is the next trillion dollar industry and it's the next boom and do you agree with this thesis and how do you think this plays out over the next couple decades?

我就是想问你,因为我在 LinkedIn 上简直沉迷了,一直在看风险投资人对这个行业的展望,他们里面很多人似乎都同意,把技术用在健康上是下一个万亿美元的行业、是下一波热潮,你同意这个论断吗?你觉得接下来这几十年会怎么演变?

That was only slightly selling himself.

他这只是稍微给自己推销了一下。

Yeah.

是啊。

[laughter]

[笑声]

But one, I do agree uh to a caveat.

但第一,我同意,不过有个限定。

I I've never I've not been a healthcare investor, and there are plenty that are, so I'm not the the perfect person to ask that question, but in the past five days, the I'm sure you read the pancreatic cancer stuff that came out like this and and at TED, this was talked about um the woman from the Arc Institute was there.

我 我从来没有 我没当过医疗健康领域的投资人,做这个的人多得是,所以问我这个问题我不是最合适的人,但在过去这五天里,那个 我相信你看到了刚出来的胰腺癌那些消息,而且在 TED 上也讲过这个,Arc Institute 那位女士当时也在。

So, I I I think the world is your oyster.

所以,我 我 我觉得整个世界都摆在你面前。

Everyone agrees.

所有人都同意。

I don't think they're any skeptics.

我觉得没什么人怀疑。

It's a good time to be young and entrepreneurial.

现在正是又年轻又想创业的好时候。

So, good on you.

所以,好样的。

Good luck.

祝你好运。

Great.

很好。

Great category.

很好的品类。

Next up.

下一位。

Hey, Bill.

嘿,Bill。

I'm Steve.

我是 Steve。

I'm a partner at Antifund, also a venture capitalist.

我是 Antifund 的合伙人,也是一名风险投资人。

We're investors in AI, consumer, and heart.

我们投 AI、消费和心脏。

Question for you.

有个问题问你。

It's seems like you've made a lot of investments in the consumer tech space.

看起来你在消费科技领域做了很多投资。

Zillow, Nextdoor, Uber, uh, Stitch Fix.

Zillow、Nextdoor、Uber、Stitch Fix。

very curious what are some interesting consumer demographic trends that you are observing and noticing that is maybe coming with AI

非常好奇,你正在观察、正在注意到哪些有意思的消费者人口趋势,可能是跟着 AI 一起来的

demographic with AI that's combining a lot of different things um there are a number of people that are trying to use AI to um make the decision on behalf of the individual part of what happened with the internet is we categorize everything you could possibly buy and now you have the paradox of choice and all this stuff.

人口结构加上 AI,这里头把很多不同的东西搅在一起了,有不少人在试着用 AI 替个人做决定,互联网带来的一部分结果是,我们把你可能买的每一样东西都归了类,现在你就有了选择的悖论,还有这一大堆事。

So, how do you and people are I mean we're doing this at Zillow.

所以,你怎么 而且大家在 我们在 Zillow 就在做这件事。

People are doing it in the travel space.

大家在旅游领域也在做。

People are trying to figure out how you could custom package things for people.

有人在想办法弄清楚,怎么给人定制打包。

Um you know, I I I think the unfortunate reality is the there is a bit of an inequality thing happening.

我 我 我觉得遗憾的现实是,确实有点不平等的事情在发生。

And so the other thing you see is people target the high end of the market more because there's more disposable income.

所以你看到的另一件事是,大家更多地瞄准市场的高端,因为那里可支配收入更多。

By the way, real quick on the health care thing, especially because you mentioned Parkinson's, one sad reality is pre-AI.

顺便说一句,快说一下医疗健康那件事,尤其因为你提到了帕金森,一个让人难受的现实是 pre-AI。

Um, a lot of drug companies end up focus on um symptom support rather than solving it because there's more money in that.

很多药厂最后把重点放在症状支持上,而不是把病解决掉,因为那里面钱更多。

And unfortunately, that's less, you know, it'd be much better if we cured the disease.

而不幸的是,那样要差一些,如果我们能把病治好会好得多。

Yeah.

是啊。

I don't know why I thought of that.

我不知道我为什么想到了这个。

Good luck with Good luck with your portfolio.

祝你的 祝你的投资组合好运。

Next up,

下一位,

hi, Bill.

嗨,Bill。

Nice to meet you.

很高兴见到你。

Appreciate you, Bill being here.

谢谢你,Bill,来到这里。

Maline Hillyard.

Maline Hillyard。

I'm the founder and CEO of Dopa G.

我是 Dopa G 的创始人兼 CEO。

We do overdose prevention and substance misuse training video games and other products around this.

我们做过量预防和物质滥用培训类的电子游戏,还有围绕这个的其他产品。

I'm curious, you know, kind of the older wisdom is if you have a product that's valuable, don't give it away for free.

我很好奇,以前那套老智慧是,如果你有个有价值的产品,别免费送出去。

But now with AI that we can be creating and releasing new products so quickly, is there and a lot of creators online are giving away education or other products for free as kind of top of the funnel.

但现在有了 AI,我们可以这么快地做出并发布新产品,那是不是有 而且线上很多创作者都在免费送出教育内容或者其他产品,算是 top of the funnel。

Are you seeing this with your portfolio companies?

你在你的投资组合公司里看到这个现象吗?

What would your advice to them be on free or charge?

免费还是收费,你会给他们什么建议?

We've done it all.

我们什么都做过。

I mean a big part of why my firm backs so many open source companies because the product got out there and became a top-of-funnel way to get users in.

我的基金之所以投了这么多开源公司,很大一部分原因就是产品先铺了出去,变成一条把用户拉进来的 top-of-funnel 路子。

I think you have to I had had a conversation with the guy running the New York Times once and he was thinking this way and I think in their case it was flawed because the people that love the New York Times will it's almost like a wall there.

我觉得你必须 我有一次跟管 New York Times 的那个人聊过,他当时就在这么想,我觉得放在他们身上这个思路有问题,因为爱 New York Times 的那些人会 那几乎像那儿立着一道墙。

They'll pay this much and you could lower the price and it doesn't really increase their distribution.

他们愿意付这么多,你可以把价格降下来,但那并不真的会增加他们的分发。

So you you have to understand the the target market and the end market and and by the way if you're going to do the freemium thing it's got to be really big right because you know otherwise you're going to have a hard time funneling it down.

所以你 你必须搞清楚目标市场和终端市场,而且顺便说一句,如果你要做 freemium,规模必须非常大,对吧,不然你很难把它往下漏。

So I don't know enough about that particular category.

所以那个具体的品类我了解得不够多。

The other trend you might be interested in is a number of companies have been able to get um consumer apps available for reimbursement on insurance claims and that's obviously very good if you can make that happen with a product like that.

你可能会感兴趣的另一个趋势是,有不少公司已经能让消费级 app 进入保险理赔的报销范围,如果你能用这样的产品做到这一点,那显然非常好。

I see a lot of nodding done.

我看到不少nodding了。

Hey Bill, how's it going?

嘿 Bill,还好吗?

Good.

挺好。

My name is Jay Ives.

我叫 Jay Ives。

I am uh a CEO and founder of a growth marketing agency in New York, Jives Media, and we're also currently working on uh AI as CRM, which I'm pretty stoked about.

我是纽约一家增长营销代理公司 Jives Media 的 CEO 兼创始人,我们现在还在做 AI as CRM,这个我挺兴奋的。

I know that you've made a few sound investments over the years.

我知道这些年你做过好几笔很靠谱的投资。

And my question is, what are two or three things that you really look for when investing in a founder?

我的问题是,你投一个创始人的时候,真正会看的两三件事是什么?

Not just a company, but a founder.

不只是看公司,而是看创始人。

Yeah.

对。

So, um I think that determinism Bezos talked about um sales ability.

所以,我觉得是 Bezos 讲的那个决心,销售能力。

You're you're selling so often.

你一直不停地在卖。

You're trying to close people, close investments, close deals, close customers.

你要去搞定人,搞定投资,搞定交易,搞定客户。

Like you're just whoever the founder is represents the company.

就是说,不管创始人是谁,他就代表这家公司。

And I've seen people that have 10x sales ability relative to someone else and it really matters.

我见过有人的销售能力是别人的 10 倍,这一点真的很要紧。

Um, and then lastly, and this kind of relates to the founder, but more the company and relates to the question just before you, many of the best outcomes we've had, the company has some um unfair go-to market advantage they've come up with.

然后最后一点——这跟创始人有关,但更多是公司层面,也跟你前面那位的问题有关——我们拿到的最好结果里,很多都是公司自己琢磨出了某种不公平的 go-to-market 优势。

So, some way of getting customers that's not rote advertising or rote salespeople.

就是说,某种获取客户的方式,不是照本宣科的广告,也不是照本宣科的销售队伍。

And and because if you can if you can figure you know there's this whole product-led growth you know meme like that stuff really matters.

而且因为如果你能——如果你能想明白,现在有 product-led growth 这一整套梗——那种东西真的很要紧。

Cool.

酷。

I really appreciate you.

真的很感谢你。

Yeah.

好。

Good luck.

祝你好运。

Hi Bill.

嗨 Bill。

Thanks for being here.

谢谢你来。

Yeah.

好。

Um my name is Thor Weber.

我叫 Thor Weber。

I'm the founder of Skill Dome.

我是 Skill Dome 的创始人。

We do AI tutors.

我们做 AI 家教。

My question to you is around defensibility and specifically the question is is there any defensibility left in software?

我要问你的问题是关于护城河的,具体来说就是:软件还剩下任何护城河吗?

I I think it partially depends.

我——我觉得这有一部分要看情况。

I would probably if I had to bet on whether SaaS apocalypse what do they call it?

如果非要我赌 SaaS apocalypse 是不是——他们管它叫什么?

SaaS apocalypse is overdone or not.

SaaS apocalypse 是不是被夸大了。

I would say it's probably overdone a little bit.

我会说,大概是有一点被夸大了。

Um, but I'm always been a big believer in Warren Buffett's be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

不过我一直非常相信 Warren Buffett 那句:别人恐惧时我贪婪,别人贪婪时我恐惧。

Um, but I do think the category matters.

但我确实认为品类很重要。

If your product was, you know, helping someone translate it from here to here, they can do that.

如果你的产品是帮人把东西从这里翻译到那里,那他们能做。

If if you're a system of record on finance, I think it makes no sense whatsoever that you would vibe code your own financial ledger.

如果——如果你是财务上的 system of record,我觉得你去 vibe code 一套自己的财务账本,那完全说不通。

The the auditor needs to be able to see this thing.

审计师得能看到这个东西。

It needs to be quite deterministic.

它必须相当确定性。

And so I think the software that's safer is one where there's a need for deterministic data and then you can use that data to reinforce whatever the AI model is.

所以我觉得更安全的软件,是那种需要确定性数据的软件,然后你可以用这些数据去强化 AI 模型,不管用的是哪个模型。

But other people are talking about this.

但别人也在讲这件事。

I think people are kind of down on workflow and more optimistic about data centricity, but the truth of the matter is you have to know what AI can do in your field.

我觉得大家有点看衰 workflow,而对以数据为中心更乐观,但事情的真相是,你必须知道 AI 在你这个领域能干什么。

Like, and it goes back to this curiosity thing because if you're not scared to death that you lack the knowledge of exactly what AI can do where where you play every day, you might get run over.

而且这又回到好奇心这件事,因为如果你没有被吓得半死——怕自己并不确切知道 AI 在你每天混的这块地方到底能干什么——你很可能会被碾过去。

Well, fear, scared to death, but also to your point about curiosity and being fascinated.

恐惧,吓得半死,但也回到你刚说的好奇心和着迷那一点。

If you're excited about it, you're going to be the one thing.

如果你对它感到兴奋,你就会是那一个。

You've already figured out how to hack it, right?

你已经琢磨出怎么把它玩明白了,对吧?

I mean, I I I think I I don't know where I said this, but like most of the founders I know that weekend OpenClaw came out, they ran and bought a Mac Mini and popped this thing up just because they didn't want to not know what everyone was talking about and it kind of requires that mentality.

我——我觉得,我不知道我在哪儿说过这个,但就是说,我认识的大多数创始人,在 OpenClaw 出来那个周末,就跑去买了一台 Mac Mini,把这东西架起来了,就只是因为他们不想不知道大家在聊什么,而这事多少就是需要这种心态。

And you're right, if you're curious, that happened innately.

而且你说得对,如果你好奇,这件事就是天然发生的。

If you're telling yourself, "Oh, I should be doing this."

如果你是在跟自己说,『哦,我应该去搞这个。』

Probably behind.

那大概就已经落后了。

You're a step behind.

你就慢了一步。

That's right.

没错。

Appreciate you.

感谢你。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Hi, good morning, Bill.

嗨,早上好,Bill。

My name is Anub Kumar.

我叫 Anub Kumar。

I'm the co-founder of Infect Digital.

我是 Infect Digital 的联合创始人。

It's a growth marketing firm and also the co-host of the Culture XCommerce podcast.

那是一家增长营销公司,也是 Culture XCommerce 播客的联合主持人。

Big fan of your work.

我是你作品的忠实粉丝。

Um, one of my my question was on network effects.

我的一个问题是关于网络效应的。

One of the first paid gigs I had was as a campus ambassador for Uber when they had made its uh go to market in Tucson, Arizona.

我最早拿到报酬的活儿之一,是给 Uber 当校园大使,那时候他们刚在亚利桑那州图森做 go-to-market。

Yeah.

对。

My question was around when you see founders that let's say have had successful network effect motions, OpenTable, Uber.

我的问题是,当你看到那些,比如说,把网络效应跑成功了的创始人,OpenTable、Uber。

Versus those you've seen have maybe not been able to execute.

对比那些你见过的、可能没能执行出来的。

And so what were some of the key differences that you saw?

那么你看到的一些关键差别是什么?

I actually think that you can impact this a little bit.

其实我觉得,这件事你是能影响一点的。

And I probably should have written more about it, but imagine a graph where on on the on the horizontal I mean on the vertical axis you have value to the customer and that could be either side of the marketplace and on the on the horizontal axis you have penetration in the market.

我大概应该多写写这个,但你想象一张图,横轴上——我是说纵轴上是对客户的价值,而这可以是市场任意一侧,横轴上是市场渗透率。

You want that line to go up.

你要那条线往上走。

And so how does we'll just make up how does the 10,000th customer have way more value than the thousandth customer and how can you make the value function for what you're doing dependent on the variable of how many people are in the system and I do think you can move that line around a little bit.

那么,我们就随便编一个,第 10,000 个客户凭什么比第 1,000 个客户价值大得多,以及你怎么让你做的这件事,它的价值函数依赖于「系统里有多少人」这个变量,我确实觉得那条线你可以挪一挪。

It's in certain industries it's stronger form some top out.

在某些行业里它是更强的形态,有些会见顶。

Um, you know, I always when when Amazon launched Mechanical Turk, a lot of people thought that would have a network effect, but I think if you aggregate a hundred people that can do a commodity job, the line kind of levels out.

当年 Amazon 推出 Mechanical Turk 的时候,很多人以为那会有网络效应,但我觉得如果你聚合一百个能做商品化活儿的人,那条线就有点走平了。

If you had a 100,000, it doesn't really change the quality of the work that much.

如果你有 100,000 个,活儿的质量其实不会变多少。

And so, you know, thinking about industries where that line keeps going up or this the steepness of it is what you want to pay attention to.

所以,去想那些线会一直往上走的行业,或者说它的陡峭程度,这才是你要留意的。

But I think you can also come up with ideas that tilt the line.

但我觉得你也可以想出一些点子,把那条线撬斜。

Thank you so much.

太感谢你了。

Good luck.

祝你好运。

Um, hi Bill.

嗨,Bill。

So, my name is [clears throat] Kira and I'm a Salesforce software sorry engineer um at ANZ Bank in New Zealand.

那么,我叫 [清嗓] Kira,我是新西兰 ANZ Bank 的一名 Salesforce 软件——不好意思——工程师。

Um, so my question is in markets like

那么我的问题是,在像

the Kiwis, you've come the furthest of anybody this whole summit

新西兰人,整个峰会上你是从最远的地方赶来的

literally.

字面意义上的。

Yeah.

对。

12 hour flight.

飞了 12 小时。

Um, but in markets like New Zealand where scale is very limited, you know, we're geographically isolated, tiny country.

但在像新西兰这样规模非常有限的市场里,我们地理上是孤立的,国家很小。

Um, what's the most overlooked way to build a globally competitive country?

要建一个全球有竞争力的国家,最被忽视的方式是什么?

Uh, company, sorry.

公司,不好意思。

Did you understand the

你听懂那个

the to build a globally competitive country?

那个,建一个全球有竞争力的国家?

uh company.

公司。

So h how she is on an literally on an island.

所以她怎——她字面意义上就在一座岛上。

Uh how does she use that remoteness to her advantage?

她怎么把这种偏远变成自己的优势?

Well, I there's a chapter in the book titled go where the action is.

我——书里有一章的标题叫 go where the action is。

So this would be the antithesis of that.

所以这正好是那一章的反面。

Unless you're like a lamb.

除非你是只羊羔。

I you know it's the answer is going to have to be in virtual communities.

我——答案只能落在虚拟社群上。

like you're going to have to get plugged into, you know, the the appropriate Reddit group or, you know, link like you're going to have to build, you know, like MrBeast is.

就是你得接进合适的 Reddit 群组,或者,像——你得去建,像 MrBeast 那样。

You're just going to have to have so much connectivity.

你就是得有极大量的连接。

And and I would go overboard on the peer stuff if you're isolated.

而且如果你身处隔离,我会在同辈这件事上做过头。

I mean digitally, but I would want to create as many people I'm connected to digitally through Signal groups, WhatsApp groups, Reddit groups, you know, maybe set up a Discord server of your own, but like you you want to be the most virtually connected person you can possibly be.

我是说数字上的,我会想通过 Signal 群、WhatsApp 群、Reddit 群,尽可能多地建立数字上跟我连着的人,也许自己搭一个 Discord 服务器,但就是你要成为你可能做到的、虚拟连接最多的那个人。

Plus, take advantage of the time difference when they wake up.

另外,利用时差,等他们醒来的时候。

They always have a note from you, right?

他们总会收到你的一条消息,对吧?

Uh, good morning, Bill.

早上好,Bill。

My name is Maria.

我叫 Maria。

I'm building my own app that helps with Paradox of Choice.

我在做自己的 app,用来应对 Paradox of Choice。

Basically, it's recommendation engine that helps connects users to what product to buy based on their preferences and data.

基本上,它是一个推荐引擎,根据用户的偏好和数据,帮他们对接该买什么产品。

Y

嗯

um my question is how do you assess the difference between like founder quality and like market fit

我的问题是,你怎么评估创始人质量和市场契合之间的差别

well I mean market fit for the

我是说,市场契合是针对

or essentially like how strong the market pull is versus like the founder quality.

或者其实是说,市场的牵引力有多强,对比创始人质量。

Ah

啊

sorry.

不好意思。

Yeah.

对。

I mean I mean ideally you have both right um but I I've seen many we've funded many situations where the I mean Discord was a failed game company you know as an example and this was the product they built after the fact and Slack was famously that way.

我是说,理想情况下你两个都有,对吧,但我见过很多——我们投过很多这样的情况,Discord 原本是一家失败的游戏公司,拿它举个例子,而这是他们事后才做出来的产品,Slack 也出名地是这样。

So great founders can navigate failed products and the the truth of the matter is

所以伟大的创始人能穿越失败的产品,而事实是

WhatsApp too right?

WhatsApp 也是吧?

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

So when you're launching something, you just don't know really.

所以当你推出一个东西的时候,你其实真的不知道。

And so that's why I'd give the tilt the other way.

所以我才会把天平往另一边倾。

Um, yeah,

是啊,

just got to be in the game and then figure it out, right?

就是得先入场,然后再想明白,对吧?

That's true.

确实是这样。

The start.

开始。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Okay.

好。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Hey, Bill.

嘿,Bill。

Good morning.

早上好。

My name is Andy Nicer and I'm a fractional go to market engineer.

我叫 Andy Nicer,我是一名 fractional go-to-market 工程师。

A lot of people in who are my age are operating in this fractional capacity, managing several client engagements, wearing multiple hats and building solo practices.

很多跟我同龄的人都在以这种 fractional 的方式做事,同时管着好几个客户项目,身兼多职,建立自己的单人业务。

From a leadership perspective, how do you think about decision-making and maintaining conviction in this career path?

从领导力的角度,你怎么看待决策,以及怎么在这条职业路径上守住信念?

And how do you avoid diluting yourself across too many things?

还有你怎么避免把自己摊薄在太多事情上?

Yeah, I would um well, I have two reactions to that.

我会——好,我对这个有两个反应。

First of all, I think it's a um wonderful um idea while you're trying to discover there's a anecdote in the book that the one of the guys that's part of the Acquired podcast.

首先,我觉得在你还在探索的时候,这是一个很好的想法,书里有一段轶事,是 Acquired 播客的其中一个人。

He had a thing called a side hustle.

他有个东西叫 side hustle。

So he'd show up at a job and ask his boss, "Do you mind if I do this on the side in my spare time?"

所以他每到一份工作,就问他老板:「你介意我在业余时间顺手做这件事吗?」

And that launched Microsoft Garage when he was at Microsoft which connected him to the entire venture community.

而那在他还在 Microsoft 的时候启动了 Microsoft Garage,这把他连上了整个创投圈。

He got an offer to go to work at a venture firm which he thought he might like but when he got there he said can I launch a podcast on the side and they said sure and that ended up being the thing he loves.

他拿到一家风投机构的工作邀约,他觉得自己可能会喜欢,但到了那儿以后他说,我能顺手做个播客吗,他们说当然可以,而那最后成了他真正热爱的事。

So doing multiple things is a great way to AB test or experiment um

所以做多件事是做 A/B test 或者做实验的好办法,

and AB test what you're fascinated.

而且 A/B test 你着迷的东西。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

I don't know how many Steve Jobs and Elon Musk there are in the world.

我不知道世界上有多少个 Steve Jobs 和 Elon Musk。

So assuming you can be that I would say is a bit aggressive.

所以假定你能成为那样的人,我觉得有点激进。

I think if you want to really dent the world, you probably want to find a single lane at some point in the future.

我觉得如果你真想在世界上留下一个凹痕,你大概得在未来某个时点收敛到一条车道。

How many people out there have a side hustle going on?

在场有多少人正在做 side hustle?

Raise your hand.

举手。

A lot.

很多。

Good.

很好。

Good for you guys.

你们真棒。

Hello, Mr. Gurley.

Gurley 先生您好。

My name is Tiffany Johnson and I'm an MD candidate from Stanford School of Medicine and the founder of the MedBubble which is a mental health platform for physicians and healthcare professionals.

我叫 Tiffany Johnson,是 Stanford School of Medicine 的医学博士候选人,也是 MedBubble 的创始人——一个面向医生和医疗专业人士的心理健康平台。

So my question is surrounding as a woman founder I know females still receive a disproportionately smaller share of venture funding and given the bias and pattern matchings in VC.

所以我的问题是围绕着,作为女性创始人,我知道女性拿到的风险投资份额依然不成比例地小,而且考虑到 VC 里的偏见和模式匹配。

How would you advise women founders to present themselves in fundraising conversations so they are seen as both highly credible and highly upside without feeling like they're not someone they're not or less authentic?

您会怎么建议女性创始人在融资对话里呈现自己,让人既觉得她们非常可信、也非常有上升空间,同时又不会觉得自己不是在装成别人、或者不够真实?

Yeah.

是。

Yeah.

是。

The they're I mean I will tell you from the time I entered the VC career to the time I left this move materially.

那个,他们,我可以告诉你,从我进入 the VC career 到我离开的那段时间,这件事有实质性的移动。

It's still not where it needs to be, but progress has happened.

它还没到该到的位置,但进展确实发生了。

And there are a number of um female founders and female VCs that have created their own community groups like I've been talking about.

而且有不少女性创始人和女性 VC 建立了她们自己的社群小组,就像我一直在讲的那种。

And I think plugging into those, getting exposure to those um would will would help you know help you feel more confident about what you're doing and seeing more success stories.

我觉得接进那些圈子、多接触那些,会会会帮你对自己在做的事更有信心,也看到更多成功案例。

I have always felt strongly in these situations that you want to combine attention on the problem with attention towards success stories because part of the issue becomes a pipeline one of how you draw more people in.

在这类情况里我一直强烈地觉得,你要把对问题的关注和对成功案例的关注结合起来,因为问题的一部分变成了输送管道的问题——你怎么把更多人吸引进来。

And so, you know, there there was a point in my career, I think, where I was on 10 boards and six of them had female CEOs.

所以,我职业生涯里有那么一个时间点,我想,我同时在 10 个董事会里,其中 6 家的 CEO 是女性。

And so, and I don't say that it wasn't intentional.

所以,而且我不说那不是有意的。

I was backing the best people I possibly could, but this has been improving, but we should keep tilting harder against it.

我是在支持我能找到的最好的人,但这件事一直在改善,不过我们应该继续更用力地往反方向掰。

Hi, Bill.

嗨,Bill。

I'm Sarah Ramanco.

我是 Sarah Ramanco。

I'm a VC.

我是 VC。

Um, once again, thank you for speaking at our event during South by Southwest.

再一次,谢谢你在 South by Southwest 期间来我们的活动上讲话。

Um my question is how do you think about allocating your time between the demands of active investing and the things that don't have an immediate ROI like mentoring founders doing writing speaking at events and how has that changed over time?

我的问题是,你怎么在积极投资的那些要求、和那些没有立即 ROI 的事情——比如指导创始人、写作、在活动上演讲——之间分配时间,这个分配随时间又是怎么变的?

Yeah, this is a really hard question.

是,这个问题真的很难。

I mean to be a successful venture capitalist you have to be definitely afraid that you didn't look under a particular rock and there's infinite rocks.

要做一个成功的风险投资人,你必须实实在在地怕自己漏翻了某一块石头,而石头是无限多的。

And [snorts] so you it's it's a hustle job.

而且 [鼻音笑] 所以你,这是这是一份靠拼命的活儿。

I've always said it bends towards youth because of this hustle element.

我一直说它偏向年轻人,就因为这个拼命的成分。

And um there's another element that's why those other things are important is you need to differentiate yourself as a brand.

还有另一个成分,这就是为什么那些别的事情重要——你需要把自己做成一个有区分度的品牌。

And so if you're not doing any of the development work around content or speaking or whatever, it's it's kind of hard to get known for what yourself.

所以如果你在内容、演讲或者随便什么上面完全不做那些建设的工作,那就有点难让别人知道你自己因为什么被认知。

So, I don't know that there's a formulaic response to that.

所以,我不知道这有没有一个公式化的回答。

Um, I really don't because I think it just make sure that you're 100% fascinated with being a VC because you need to run as fast as you possibly can.

我真的没有,因为我觉得那就是,确保你 100% 对做 VC 着迷,因为你需要跑得越快越好。

I actually posted two weeks ago a letter I wrote called So, You Want to Be a VC on my Twitter account that I had kind of distributed privately, but now it's public.

我其实两周前在我的 Twitter 账号上发了一封我写的信,叫 So You Want to Be a VC,那封信之前算是私下流传,现在公开了。

So you could go read that as well.

所以你也可以去读一读。

Thank you so much.

非常感谢你。

Yep.

好。

Hey, how you doing?

嘿,你好吗?

Um

嗯

Randall, thank you for hosting.

Randall,谢谢你主持。

And Bill, I'm so grateful.

还有 Bill,我太感激了。

We're so grateful that you're here.

我们太感激你能来这里。

My question is, well, first, my name is Dante Tyler, founder of OQP Solutions.

我的问题是,不过首先,我叫 Dante Tyler,OQP Solutions 的创始人。

We are cyber security and now AI governance company.

我们是一家网络安全、现在也做 AI 治理的公司。

And my question to you, Bill, is as AI gets embedded deeper into products, how much weight are you putting on founders data governance and security posture doing your due diligence?

而我给你的问题,Bill,是随着 AI 被更深地嵌进产品,你做尽调的时候,给创始人的数据治理和安全态势放多少权重?

And do you see that becoming a hard gate when you making investments?

还有你觉得那会不会变成你做投资时的一道硬门槛?

That's I I I think if I understood the question is do people do have I seen venture capitalists use or worry about security as part of their investment evaluation?

那是,我我我想,如果我理解对了这个问题,是人们会不会——我有没有见过风险投资人把安全当成投资评估的一部分,或者去担心它?

Yeah.

是的。

I have not seen that.

我没见过。

It doesn't mean that it won't happen in the future.

那不意味着将来不会发生。

I think the thing that would cause it to happen most is if some hot startup, you know, ran into an exposure and then got, you know, dislocated as a result, which would push more people in that direction.

我觉得最可能让它发生的是,某个很热的创业公司撞上一次暴露,结果被打残了,那会把更多人推向那个方向。

Um, if those incidents spike up, I think you could see that.

如果那类事件突然多起来,我觉得你可能会看到那种情况。

Um, but it also depends what stage you invest in.

但这也取决于你投哪个阶段。

I I've mostly done early stage stuff, two people in a PowerPoint, the product doesn't exist yet, so there's not much to go test.

我我大部分做的是早期的东西,两个人加一份 PowerPoint,产品还不存在,所以没什么可以拿去测。

But other investors do a lot of later stage things and they would probably be much more concerned.

但别的投资人做很多后期的事情,他们大概会关心得多得多。

Uh I'm Dennis Analia.

我是 Dennis Analia。

Uh I'm from Dallas, Texas.

我来自 Dallas, Texas。

I started a small private equity shop.

我开了一家小的私募股权机构。

Uh we focus in B2B services and healthcare.

我们聚焦在 B2B 服务和医疗健康。

Uh my question for you is if AI commoditizes software uh what markets would you chase um from an investment thesis and which ones would you avoid entirely?

我给你的问题是,如果 AI 把软件商品化了,从投资论点出发你会去追哪些市场,又会完全避开哪些?

Yeah.

是。

So I mean I the earlier question hit some of this.

所以我,前面那个问题碰到了一部分这个。

I mean to the extent that the unit of work can be completely automated with with with an AI agent that'd be a dangerous place to be.

如果工作单元能被一个 AI agent 完全自动化,那会是个危险的位置。

Um but but I don't know exactly how many of those things there are.

但但我不确切知道那样的东西有多少。

I think there are many places where either human touch or human judgment are are going to be valued by the customer for a very long time.

我觉得有很多地方,客户在很长时间里都会看重人的接触或者人的判断。

Um I think there was someone at TED talking about the fact that the number of radiologists has gone up not down despite the fact that you can read these things so much faster.

我记得 TED 上有人讲过一个事实:放射科医生的数量是上升了而不是下降,尽管现在读这些片子快得多。

Um I do think you know from a PE perspective if there are ways you can accelerate the customer experience and customer delight in an industry leveraging AI that delta of how much you can move that would be something I'd be really focused on.

我确实觉得,从 PE 的视角看,如果在某个行业里能借 AI 加速客户体验和客户的愉悦,你能把这个差值挪动多少,那会是我真正盯住的东西。

Um because then the customers like, "Oh, I don't want to go to the," you know, I'd put I'd rank that higher than, "Oh, I'm gonna take a bunch of cost out."

因为那样客户就会说,“哦,我不想去那个,”我会把我会把这个排在“哦,我要砍掉一大堆成本”的前面。

You know, like being able to wow the customer in a differentiated way can create word of mouth and it could give you a much better outcome.

就像能用有差异化的方式让客户惊叹,可以造出口碑,也可能给你一个好得多的结果。

Okay.

好。

And what what makes you confident in that?

那什么什么让你对那个有信心?

30 years of experience.

30 年的经验。

No, that's my answer.

不,那就是我的答案。

Yeah.

是。

I think I agree.

我想我同意。

I think it's, [laughter] you know, when we build our advisory board for platforms, we hire advisors, right?

我觉得那是,[笑声]我们给平台搭顾问委员会的时候,会雇顾问,对吧?

They have experience.

他们有经验。

They've kind of seen market shift over times and so we leverage that with the new age models.

他们算是见过市场一次次的转变,所以我们把那个跟新时代的模型结合起来用。

So,

所以,

good stuff.

挺好的。

Awesome.

很棒。

Appreciate you.

感谢你。

Hi, Bill.

嗨,Bill。

My name is Trinity Carnell.

我叫 Trinity Carnell。

Um, I'm in the process of developing my own app.

我正在开发我自己的 app。

Uh, it's a health and wellness app geared, excuse me, specifically towards corporate women.

那是一个健康和养生的 app,针对,不好意思,专门针对职场女性。

Um, and my question for you today is based on all the successful pitches you've experienced throughout your career, what are some of those components that you tend to see that draw venture capitalists like yourself towards newer uh apps or companies in general?

我今天给你的问题是,基于你整个职业生涯里经历过的所有成功 pitch,你倾向于看到哪些成分,会把像你这样的风险投资人吸引到更新的 app 或者一般意义上的公司那边去?

I mean, unfortunately, people probably won't love this answer, but well, I give you two answers.

不幸的是,人们大概不会喜欢这个答案,不过,好吧,我给你两个答案。

One, they watch the leaderboards.

第一,他们看排行榜。

Like, they really do.

就是,他们真的看。

So like getting early success, that's maybe a reason to do the freemium thing.

所以像拿到早期的成功,那也许是做 freemium 那套的一个理由。

Like the more something's sucked up, they pay attention to that a lot.

就像一个东西被吸纳得越多,他们就非常关注那个。

Um the other thing that might they might pay attention to is personal experience.

他们可能会关注的另一件事是亲身体验。

So to the extent that they become a customer and are wowed by the experience, that's another thing I think people um broadly misperceive that venture capitalists are solely looking for an ROI outcome.

所以如果他们变成了客户、并且被那个体验惊艳到,那是另一件事——我觉得人们普遍误解风险投资人只是在找一个 ROI 结果。

They have limited capacity on investments and they really want to fall in love with a project and so you have to have a connection with with with what matters to them like personally or what they're thinking about and so that they're going to give up one of those slots.

他们在投资上的容量有限,他们真的想爱上一个项目,所以你必须跟对他们要紧的东西有连接,比如个人层面上的、或者他们正在想的事情,这样他们才会让出其中一个名额。

Okay.

好。

Hey Bill.

嘿 Bill。

Hey.

嘿。

Hey.

嘿。

So I'm Dave again.

所以我又是 Dave。

I started my own sort of VC firm called Inception Capital that we started about three and a half years ago.

我开了我自己的那种 VC 机构,叫 Inception Capital,我们大约三年半前开始的。

We focus on first institutional checks into opportunities in emerging markets focus on financial infrastructure and AI automation.

我们聚焦于投进新兴市场机会的第一张机构支票,聚焦金融基础设施和 AI 自动化。

So I know there's a statistics out there that 80% of funds actually don't make it to fund two.

所以我知道外面有个统计说 80% 的基金其实走不到二期基金。

We raised about uh $80 million three and a half years ago.

我们三年半前募了大约 $80 million。

We're about to start our fund two.

我们正要开始我们的二期基金。

Um what advice do you have for aspiring VCs like myself that are all looking to raise their second fund as to like what we should do and some of the things that we should avoid?

像我这样、都想募第二期基金的有志 VC,你会给什么建议——比如我们该做什么、以及我们该避开哪些事情?

Yeah, I mean the I've heard this problem come up and people talk about the the biggest this probably completely unhelpful but the biggest thing early liquidity is the thing that's most valuable.

是,我听过这个问题被提出来,人们谈到最大的,这大概完全没用,但最大的一点是,早期流动性是最有价值的东西。

I think going to market on fund two with zero liquidity events is tough.

我觉得带着零退出事件去募二期基金很难。

Um, and then you know outside of that they're going to look at markups.

然后除了那个之外,他们会看 markups。

They're going to look at how successful you are in getting people to follow you and the quality of those people that followed you into these companies.

他们会看你有多成功地把人拉进来跟着你投,以及跟着你进到这些公司的那些人质量如何。

That's what the LPs are going to pay attention to.

那就是 LPs 会关注的东西。

Hey Bill, thanks for being here.

嘿 Bill,谢谢你来。

My name is No Wolfson.

我叫 No Wolfson。

I'm a agent in our creators group at United Talent Agency.

我是 United Talent Agency 创作者组的一名经纪人。

one, who was the agent that you were referencing earlier?

第一,你刚才提到的那位经纪人是谁?

And two, I love Super Pumped.

第二,我很喜欢 Super Pumped。

I I watched it.

我 我看了。

I thought it was great.

我觉得非常棒。

What's one of your favorite stories that you love to share about your run with Uber?

你在 Uber 那一程里最喜欢分享的故事是哪一个?

I What was the first question?

我 第一个问题是什么?

Who's the agent?

那位经纪人是谁?

You referred to uh the Hollywood agent.

你提到了那位好莱坞经纪人。

Oh, Lori Bartlett.

哦,Lori Bartlett。

There's a chapter in my book on her.

我书里有一章是写她的。

So, the book's divided into stories and profiles and principles.

书分成故事、人物特写和原则几个部分。

So that there's a whole chapter in the book on Lori.

所以书里有一整章讲 Lori。

Um

嗯

What's some of

有哪些

Oh, you know, probably on Uber the uh the intellectual uh battle I had with the NYU professor about the size of the market.

哦,大概是 Uber 那件事吧——我跟那位 NYU 教授关于市场规模的那场智力论战。

I don't know if you're familiar with that or not, but um he came out with a huge piece that said Uber would only be worth $4 billion.

我不知道你熟不熟这件事,但他发了一篇大文章,说 Uber 只值 $4 billion。

And I spent the weekend writing a retort called How to Miss by a Mile [laughter] that it's about 25 pages, so you could go read it.

我花了一个周末写了一篇反驳,叫 How to Miss by a Mile [笑声],大概 25 页,你可以去读一读。

But um there's a classic TAM analysis mistake people make.

不过那里面是人们常犯的一个经典 TAM 分析错误。

Um yeah, so that'd be it.

对,就这个吧。

Awesome.

太好了。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Yeah, I got a minute or two left.

好,我还剩一两分钟。

See how many we can get in.

看看还能塞进几个。

Whoever, if you're at the end of the line, let's cut the line off.

不管是谁,如果你在队尾,我们就把队伍截到这儿吧。

If you're at the end of the line, no chance.

如果你在队尾,没机会了。

We'll make sure that you're the first in line at the book signing and you can probably ask [laughter] your question one-on-one.

我们保证让你在签书会上排第一个,你大概可以 [笑声] 一对一问你的问题。

We'll give you we'll give you we'll give you advantageousness there.

我们会给你 我们会给你 我们会在那边给你一点优待。

Go on.

来,说吧。

Hi, Bill and Randall.

你好,Bill 和 Randall。

Uh nice to meet you.

很高兴见到你们。

My name is Destiny Brad.

我叫 Destiny Brad。

I am a CEO and founder of a local company here in Phoenix.

我是 Phoenix 本地一家公司的 CEO 兼创始人。

It's called Girlivities.

公司叫 Girlivities。

And basically the premise and our mission is to provide a safe place for women to connect and to come to alone to meet other friends while doing fun activities.

基本上,我们的出发点和使命是给女性提供一个安全的地方,让她们互相连接,可以一个人来,一边做有趣的活动一边认识新朋友。

We change theme every month.

我们每个月换一个主题。

Um, and we've had a lot of success over the last four years here in Phoenix and I've really been considering like my next steps as far as scaling and growth.

过去四年我们在 Phoenix 做得很成功,我一直在认真考虑下一步,在做大规模和增长上该怎么走。

And my question to you, Bill, as a venture capitalist, uh, is do you believe that all businesses or most businesses need funding in order to reach the next level of success?

我想问你的问题,Bill,作为一位风险投资人,你觉得所有企业、或者说大多数企业,都需要融资才能上到下一个成功的台阶吗?

And if so, how do you know when it's the right time for that?

如果需要,你怎么知道什么时候是合适的时机?

Yeah, I would pro this I'm I'm glad you asked this question.

是啊,我大概 这个 我 我很高兴你问这个问题。

I would I think if I were talking to a huge group of entrepreneurs like this, I would warn more people about not taking venture capital.

我会 我想如果我面对这么一大群创业者,我会更多地警告人们不要去拿风险投资。

And what happens typically is after you do an A, you do a B, a C, a D, and you can build an Excel spreadsheet on what this looks like.

通常会发生的是,你做完 A 轮,再做 B 轮、C 轮、D 轮,你可以拿一张 Excel 表把这个走势算出来。

And while you're giving out stock to employees, and very quickly and almost in a flash, before you know it, your founders' equity goes from 90% to 10.

同时你还在给员工发股票,很快、几乎一瞬间,不知不觉,你们创始人的股权就从 90% 掉到 10。

And I've watched it happen over and over again.

我看着这事一遍又一遍地发生。

And the world wants to do more M&A in the 20 to 100 million tuck in range than they want to do billion dollar exits.

而这个世界更愿意做的 M&A,是 20 到 100 million 的 tuck-in,而不是十亿美元级的退出。

And your equivalency is, you know, once you take all those rounds is to get to this much harder to get to place.

而你的那条等价线是,一旦你拿了那么多轮,你就得走到一个难得多才能到的位置。

And so I I would generally warn against taking venture unless you're way certain this is a really big outcome.

所以总体上我会劝人别拿风险投资,除非你非常确定这会是个特别大的结果。

And I'd find a way to use hustle and sweat equity.

我会想办法靠拼劲和用汗水换股权找出路。

Um there's a great story in the book.

书里有一个很棒的故事。

There's a gentleman named Bert Beveridge who was a seismologist undergrad, worked in oil and gas for 10 years.

有位先生叫 Bert Beveridge,本科学的是地震学,在油气行业干了 10 年。

Got scared actually because he was in Latin America.

他其实是被吓到了,因为他当时在拉丁美洲。

Things got dicey.

局势变得凶险。

Became a mortgage broker for another 10 years and then one weekend convinced himself to launch a vodka company named Tito's which he owns 100% of.

他又做了 10 年抵押贷款经纪人,然后某个周末说服了自己去创办一家伏特加公司,叫 Tito's,100% 自己持有。

Um, and I think it's doing 400 million a year in free cash flow.

我想它一年有 400 million 的自由现金流。

So anyway, I'm glad you asked that question.

总之,我很高兴你问了这个问题。

Thank you for your time.

谢谢你的时间。

Great.

很好。

Uh, all right.

好的。

I think that's it.

我想就到这里了。

Hold on.

等一下。

That's so you got how many people you have in line there?

那 你们那边队里还有多少人?

Seven.

七个。

All right.

好的。

You're the magnificent seven there.

那你们就是那边的豪勇七蛟龙了。

If you go over to here, I'll make sure you're the first in line for the book signing.

如果你们到这边来,我保证你们在签书会上排最前面。

You get a book and a private little quick chitchat with Bill.

你们能拿到一本书,还能跟 Bill 私下快快聊两句。

So there you go.

就这样。

Lining up has its privileges.

排队有排队的好处。

So go over there.

所以到那边去吧。

I'll make sure you guys get taken care of right by there.

我会确保那边有人把你们照顾好。

Meanwhile, for the rest of us, what a great master class that was.

至于我们其他人,这真是一堂精彩的大师课。

That was awesome.

太棒了。