The Big Short on AI

"All right, everybody. Chamath is here. I'm here. Freeberg's here. But Saxi Pooh — he was up late at the White House. We'll show some pictures later. He couldn't make it today."

"好,各位。Chamath 在,我在,Friedberg 也在。但 Sacks(我们的'Saxi Pooh')昨晚在白宫忙到很晚,一会儿给大家看几张照片——他今天来不了了。"

"But let's get started. We wanted to get you a show and get it to you on time for your weekend. Let's start with Michael Burry's short."

"咱们开始吧。我们想赶在周末前把这期做出来、准时送到你手上。先从 Michael Burry 的做空说起。"

"So you guys know Michael Burry — he's the capital allocator from The Big Short, and he just deregistered his firm with the SEC. He made a big bet against AI and Palantir."

"你们都认识 Michael Burry——《大空头》里那位资本配置者,他刚向 SEC 注销了自己的基金。他重仓做空 AI 和 Palantir。"

"He disclosed the shorts against Palantir a couple weeks ago. They weren't huge. CNBC apparently reported that the value was like 900 million. Burry says CNBC was wrong — that it was just 9 million."

"几周前他披露了对 Palantir 的空头,规模其实不大。CNBC 报道说价值大概 9 亿美元;Burry 说 CNBC 搞错了,其实只有 900 万。"

"But he had a really interesting accusation, and it's related to what we've been talking about here on the show with the buildout of—"

"但他抛出了一个很有意思的指控,跟我们节目里一直在聊的(算力)大建设有关——"

"Can we — I'm sorry, but can we just talk about the complete and total financial illiteracy of the mainstream media? How do you confuse 9 million and 900 million? How do you do that?"

"能不能——抱歉打断一下,我们能不能先聊聊主流媒体那种彻头彻尾的金融文盲?你怎么能把 900 万和 9 亿搞混?这是怎么做到的?"

"I think maybe it's the cost of the shorts versus the value of the stock that the shorts represent. No — it's because there's a hundred shares per option. They applied a multiple and got it wrong."

"我猜可能是把'空头本身的成本'和'这些空头对应的股票市值'搞混了。不对——是因为每份期权对应 100 股。他们套了个倍数,结果算错了。"

"It's not that they got the calculator wrong. It's that they're so uninvested in assets that they don't know how asset markets work — I think that's the more logical explanation."

"不是他们按错了计算器,而是他们自己太不碰资产了,压根不懂资产市场怎么运作——我觉得这才是更合理的解释。"

"If you've ever bought a home, you probably know what people mean when they talk about the financial elements of a home. But if you've never owned a stock, never hedged a position or had an option, you don't really know how any of it works."

"你要是买过房,大概就懂大家聊房子财务细节时在说什么。但你要是从没持过股、没对冲过头寸、没碰过期权,那这些你就真不知道是怎么回事。"

"But then the problem isn't the person who wrote it — there's no fact-checking, and the whole thing gets an entire news cycle on its own. Which, by the way, helped his short — and it never should have."

"可问题也不全在写稿那个人身上——根本没人做事实核查,于是这事自己就滚出了一整轮新闻周期。顺带说,这反而帮了他的空头一把——本来压根不该发生。"

"Because if you heard some random dude had a $9 million bet against the market, you'd think nothing of it. But to manufacture a headline about somebody who had a moment almost 20 years ago..."

"因为你要是听说'某个路人拿 900 万赌市场下跌',根本不会当回事。可要给一个'差不多 20 年前风光过一阵'的人硬造一个大标题……"

"I'll take a walk down conspiracy corner. Maybe the actual person is not economically illiterate but the exact opposite — and writes the error on purpose, knowing whoever reviews it has absolutely no idea what they're talking about, and they themselves are short."

"让我走一趟'阴谋论角落'。也许写稿那人根本不是金融文盲,而是恰恰相反——他故意写错这个数字,因为他清楚上头审稿的人完全看不懂,而他自己正做着空。"

"So I wonder if CNBC should investigate whether this person actually had a trade on."

"所以我在想,CNBC 是不是该查一查,这个人当时到底有没有自己下过这笔单。"

"You're either a complete [illiterate] and you don't know how financial markets work — in which case you should be working at some other media outlet, not CNBC covering the markets — or you know how they work and you know the people above you have no idea, and so you yourself short the market."

"你要么是彻头彻尾的文盲、根本不懂金融市场怎么运作——那你就该去别的媒体,而不是在 CNBC 报市场;要么你其实很懂,而且清楚你头上的人一无所知,于是你自己去做空市场。"

"You're basically copying the Burry trade, but then you rewrite the headline to look like it's two orders of magnitude bigger — which actually could have moved the market if you saw a yard short."

"你等于是照抄了 Burry 那笔交易,然后把标题改写得像大了两个数量级——如果真让人看到有'十亿级'的空头,这是有可能撬动市场的。"

"I mean, yeah — that would have probably gotten my attention had I read it. A billion dollars is a reasonable position to have."

"是啊——我要是读到,大概真会留意一下。十亿美元是个说得过去的仓位。"

"He was accusing — he's got the Palantir short, but on the AI side he was saying Meta and Oracle have been cooking the books with $176 billion in hidden depreciation to inflate earnings by over 20% in 2028."

"他还有个指控——除了做空 Palantir,在 AI 这边他说 Meta 和 Oracle 在做假账:靠 1760 亿美元的隐藏折旧,把 2028 年的利润虚增了 20% 以上。"

"We've talked about the reasonable life of an H100 — an Nvidia chip, or really an Nvidia server. Do these things have a three-year lifespan, a four, five, six-year lifespan? CoreWeave might be putting them at six years."

"我们聊过一块 H100——或者说一台 Nvidia 服务器——合理的寿命是多少。这东西是三年寿命、还是四年、五年、六年?CoreWeave 可能按六年来算。"

"And that dramatically changes your expenses, which — given the scale of the data-center buildout — could radically change your earnings, because dividing the cost of a $100 billion data center by six or by three is a 2x difference. So your thoughts, Freeberg?"

"这会大幅改变你的费用;而以数据中心建设的体量,又会彻底改变你的利润——因为把一座 1000 亿美元的数据中心成本除以 6 还是除以 3,差了整整一倍。Friedberg,你怎么看?"

"Yeah, so just to go into accounting corner — it's our most favorite but least often visited corner here on the All-In podcast."

"好,那咱们进'会计角落'——这是 All-In 上我们最爱、却最少光顾的一个角落。"

"Under GAAP — generally accepted accounting principles — when you report your operating expenses every quarter as a public company, you take your capex — anything you make a big investment in — and you depreciate it over some lifetime."

"按 GAAP(一般公认会计准则),上市公司每季度报运营费用时,你会把资本开支(capex,也就是任何一笔大投资)拿来,在某个使用年限里分摊折旧。"

"And there's a process by which you do an internal review and determine that if your depreciation schedule doesn't map to reality, you should make an adjustment. So there's a periodic assessment for that."

"而且有一套流程:你可以做内部复核,判断折旧年限是否与现实相符,不符就该调整。所以这是要定期评估的。"

"To give you a sense, Jason: Google in the last 12 months made $120 billion in operating profit. And let's assume they're making $70 billion in capex this year. That capex does not get deducted from operating profit when they report earnings."

"给你个概念,Jason:Google 过去 12 个月赚了 1200 亿美元的运营利润。再假设它今年的资本开支是 700 亿。这笔 capex 在报财报时,并不直接从运营利润里扣掉。"

"You take the $70 billion and divide it by its useful life and report that every year. So over three years, that's about $24 billion a year; over six years, it's $12 billion a year. So that would impact operating profit on the order of ~10% — the difference between three and six years."

"你是把这 700 亿除以使用年限,每年报一部分。按三年算,大约每年 240 亿;按六年算,每年 120 亿。所以三年和六年之差,大约会影响运营利润 10% 左右。"

"What Michael Burry is saying is that all these hyperscalers have extended their depreciation schedules — the useful life of their data centers — by roughly 2x, which cuts the operating cost in half when they report earnings, and so it's inflating their earnings. He's claiming they're cooking the books."

"Michael Burry 的意思是:这些超大厂把折旧年限——也就是数据中心的使用寿命——大致拉长了一倍,报财报时运营成本就砍掉一半,于是利润被虚增。他是在指控它们做假账。"

"But if you go back to the chart: Google first made this change in Q1 of 2021, when they said servers are going from three to four years. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment from three to five years, and then in 2023 from five to six years. So this is the result of an analysis they did."

"可你回头看那张图:Google 第一次做这个调整是在 2021 年一季度,把服务器从三年改成四年;同在 2021 年,又把网络设备从三年改到五年,2023 年再从五年改到六年。这是它们做过分析之后的结果。"

"What happened in the data centers is that they transitioned from being primarily data storage and transfer systems — hard drives, RAM, memory — to being data processing centers, because of the AI boom."

"数据中心里发生的变化是:因为 AI 热潮,它们从'以数据存储和传输为主'(硬盘、RAM、内存)转成了'数据处理中心'。"

"Hard drives you throw away every 18 to 36 months; solid-state memory lasts two, four, six years depending on type; RAM had a variable lifetime too. And then suddenly, when you put these processors in to process data for AI, that's the majority of the spend and the majority of the energy."

"硬盘每 18 到 36 个月就扔;固态存储视类型能撑两年、四年、六年;RAM 的寿命也不固定。可一旦你为了跑 AI 而塞进这些处理器,它们就成了绝大部分的花销、也是绝大部分的耗能。"

"So if you pull up this clip — this is Google's head of AI and infrastructure speaking at a conference recently."

"所以放一下这个片段——这是 Google 负责 AI 与基础设施的人最近在一场会议上的发言。"

"Where are we, do you think, in the capex spend cycle — but more importantly, what are the signals you use internally? You have to plan data centers four, five years in advance, buy nuclear reactors and whatnot. So how do you think about the demand signals as well as your technology signals?"

"你觉得我们现在处在资本开支周期的哪个位置?更重要的是,你们内部用哪些信号来判断?数据中心得提前四五年规划,还要采购核反应堆之类的。所以你们怎么看待需求信号和技术信号?"

"We're early in the cycle, is what I would say — certainly relative to the demand we're seeing from our internal users. We've been building TPUs for 10 years, so we now have seven generations in production for internal and external use. Our seven- and eight-year-old TPUs have 100% utilization."

"我会说,我们还处在周期的早期——尤其是相对于我们从内部用户那里看到的需求而言。我们造 TPU 已经十年了,如今有七代在生产环境里、供内外部使用。我们那些七八年的老 TPU,利用率是 100%。"

"And I think that's the key part that's been going on. I made some calls and checked around with some other friends, and everyone says the same thing — these seven- and eight-year-old TPUs and GPUs sitting in the data centers are still being used, at 100% utilization."

"我觉得这才是正在发生的关键。我打了几个电话、问了几个朋友,大家说的都一样——数据中心里那些七八年的老 TPU 和 GPU 还在用,而且是 100% 满载。"

"So that actually justifies and validates the depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter. And I actually think Michael Burry's got this wrong."

"所以这恰恰证明、也印证了折旧年限该拉长而不是缩短。我其实认为 Michael Burry 这次判断错了。"

"Chamath, what do you think? You're involved in inference, obviously — how long will the Groq inferences be out there doing jobs? It does seem, to Freeberg's point and the gentleman in the video, that there are other jobs to do — as these things move down the lifecycle, there'll be something for them to do. When would you actually unplug them and stop using them?"

"Chamath,你怎么看?你显然是做推理(inference)这块的——Groq 的推理芯片能在外面干活干多久?照 Friedberg 和视频里那位的说法,似乎总有别的活可以派给它们——随着这些芯片往生命周期下游走,总有事情让它们做。那你到底什么时候才会把它们拔掉、不再用?"

"The business models of these companies are just far too good for them to get to the point of having exhausted every other operational tactic and then have to cook the books. These are not the seven companies that are going to cook the books."

"这些公司的商业模式实在太好了,好到根本不会走到'把其他所有经营手段都用尽、只能做假账'那一步。这几家(七巨头)不会是做假账的那种公司。"

"The practical thing that's happening — that Michael is not technical enough to understand — is that there are meaningful iterations in how kernels work, in how the attention mechanisms of these models are being rewritten, in how people are swapping out HBM for SRAM in these designs, in how they're building in some cases huge dies and in some cases much smaller chiplets."

"现实中正在发生、而 Michael 技术上又不够懂的是:这里有很多实打实的迭代——kernel(计算内核)怎么运作、模型的注意力机制怎么被重写、设计里怎么把 HBM 换成 SRAM、有的用超大 die、有的用小得多的 chiplet。"

"All of this creates more and more utilization. So these things last longer, and they also need more. I think that to make these accusations, you need some modicum of technical grounding that I don't think he has."

"这一切都在带来越来越高的利用率。所以这些芯片既用得更久,需求也更大。我觉得要抛出这种指控,你得有起码一点的技术底子,而他这点我看是没有的。"

"Here's the thing with shorts in general — which, I don't like shorting, so let me just say this. There's supposed to be a check on financial malfeasance, but it's not that."

"说说做空这件事本身——我不喜欢做空,所以先把话摆这儿:它本应是对财务舞弊的一种制衡,但它其实不是。"

"When you look at these short-selling firms, for every one that actually uncovers malfeasance, what it really is is them creating chaos and innuendo under the guise of their right to free speech."

"你看这些做空机构,真正揭出舞弊的没几个;更多时候,它们是打着'言论自由'的幌子,制造混乱和影射。"

"They put out some screed that tries to move the market; they're positioned against the stock before it comes out, and then they hope to close the position and make some money. I think that's a pretty sad and terrible way to live one's life — but it's legal, so you're allowed to do it."

"它们抛出一篇檄文想撬动市场,而在文章发出前就已经建好了空头仓位,然后指望平仓赚一笔。我觉得这是一种挺可悲、挺糟糕的活法——但它合法,所以你有权这么干。"

"It almost makes no sense for Michael to become technically literate, because he probably wouldn't have written it. And to your point — the fear, uncertainty and doubt you can create if you're Michael Burry, if you did the big short and shorted the housing crisis correctly..."

"对 Michael 来说,变得'技术上内行'几乎没意义,因为那样他大概就不会写这篇了。而且照你说的——你要是 Michael Burry、当年'大空头'押对了次贷危机,你能制造出的那种恐惧、不确定和怀疑(FUD)……"

"Now, that took two years for him to be correct. So these things are painful to execute on, in his defense."

"不过话说回来,他当年也是熬了两年才证明自己是对的。所以替他说句公道话:这种做空执行起来是很煎熬的。"

"We don't make any money. Look — outside of my venture fund, I ran a hedge fund for, I don't know, seven, eight years. And here are our longs — you can find these clips on the internet: Tesla in 2015, Amazon 2016, Salesforce 2018."

"(做空)根本不赚钱。你看——除了我的风险基金,我还管过一只对冲基金,大概七八年。这些是我们的多头——网上都能翻到这些片段:2015 年的 Tesla、2016 年的 Amazon、2018 年的 Salesforce。"

"And you know how much money I made on the short side? Because we always felt like we had to hedge, so we'd bumble around looking for shorts — never made any money."

"你知道我在空头这边赚了多少吗?因为我们老觉得得对冲,就到处瞎摸着找做空标的——一分钱没赚到。"

"The one short we found was a wireless telecom operator, and it was a legitimate fraud: its corporate address was a pizza parlor in Barcelona."

"我们唯一找到的一个空头,是一家无线电信运营商,那是货真价实的骗局:公司注册地址是巴塞罗那的一家披萨店。"

"Diversified revenue streams."

"多元化收入来源嘛。"

"Otherwise — my point is, shorting is just somebody's ability to cry fire in a theater. Quite honestly, it's extremely hard to impossible to commit financial fraud as a public company in 2025."

"除此之外——我想说的是,做空说白了就是一个人'在剧院里喊失火'的权利。说实话,2025 年想以一家上市公司的身份去搞财务造假,难到几乎不可能。"

"I guess the other short we should take a look at is the Palantir one, because Palantir — man, it's way out there. Alex Karp has been doing some great interviews. He's a national treasure. Incredibly entertaining. They obviously have a great business."

"另一个该看看的空头,大概就是 Palantir 那个了,因为 Palantir——天哪,估值离谱得离谱。Alex Karp 最近的几场采访很精彩,他简直是国宝级人物,极其有意思。他们的生意当然也很棒。"

"They're on a $3.5 billion run rate according to their last quarter. But the valuation is $480 billion. This puts them at 137 times their sales. It is extraordinary. It's way out there."

"按上一季度算,他们的年化营收(run rate)是 35 亿美元。可估值是 4800 亿。这相当于 137 倍市销率(P/S)。太夸张了,离谱得离谱。"

"Datadog and Snowflake, Microsoft — these are at ~13 times their sales. And I guess Cloudflare is out there at 37, and CrowdStrike at 30. So this is truly an outlier."

"Datadog、Snowflake、Microsoft 这些,大约是 13 倍市销率。Cloudflare 算高的,37 倍,CrowdStrike 30 倍。所以 Palantir 是个不折不扣的异类。"

"Freeberg, if you were to give Palantir the same price-to-sales ratio as some of those highly valued ones, it'd probably be a $60-70 billion company, $29 a share instead of $170. So what do you think of his Palantir short, Freeberg?"

"Friedberg,你要是给 Palantir 套上那些'高估值公司'的市销率,它大概就是个 600-700 亿美元的公司,股价 29 美元,而不是 170 美元。那你怎么看他做空 Palantir 这件事?"

"Based on the statement you just made, you're saying that a company is worth their historical sales numbers. And I don't think that's how shareholders often do — or perhaps should — think about what they're buying, which is an ownership interest in the future of the enterprise."

"照你刚才那套说法,你是在说'一家公司值多少,取决于它历史上的营收数字'。可我不认为股东通常是——或者说本就该是——这么看待自己买的东西的:他们买的是这家企业'未来'的一份所有权。"

"When you invest in a startup, you're not saying that startup is worth what the employees did last year before they even started the company. You're making a bet on the future potential of the business and what you think the cash generation over time will be."

"你投一家初创公司时,不会说'这家公司值它员工去年、甚至公司还没成立时干的那点事'。你押的是这门生意未来的潜力,以及你判断它长期能产生多少现金。"

"Your time horizon may be different than mine. And that's how a market finds a price. So I think there's probably a market trying to find a price for Palantir where folks have a great deal of difference in opinion over what the future potential of the business is, and as a result what the earnings generation will be at different time scales."

"你的时间跨度可能和我不一样。市场就是这样找到价格的。所以我觉得,Palantir 眼下大概就是一个'市场在定价'的过程:大家对这门生意未来潜力的看法分歧极大,进而对它在不同时间尺度上能赚多少也各执一词。"

"Who am I to judge? I've not studied the business well. I don't have a strong point of view. I would make an investment for the long term if I were to buy the shares, not look at last year's numbers and say there's a valuation arbitrage opportunity."

"我算老几,凭什么下定论?这门生意我没好好研究过,没有强烈的看法。我要是买它的股票,会是奔着长期去的,而不是盯着去年的数字说'这里有个估值套利的机会'。"

"So, to each their own. Over time, the market corrects itself — it's a voting matter today and it's a weighing matter in the future. That's Warren Buffett's famous quote — the actual earnings generation in the future will determine whether someone paid a good price or a bad price depending on when they bought."

"所以,各有各的判断吧。长期看,市场会自我修正——今天它是台投票机,未来才是台称重机。这是 Warren Buffett 那句名言——未来真实的盈利,才会决定你当初买入的价格是划算还是吃亏,取决于你在什么点位进场。"

"At $400 billion market cap, you could be getting a steal or you could be significantly overpaying. That's going to be based on your assessment, your judgment as an investor."

"在 4000 亿美元的市值上,你可能是捡了大便宜,也可能是严重高价接盘。这取决于你作为投资者自己的评估和判断。"

"And I think people are looking at like 30 to 45% year-over-year growth, Chamath, and saying, yeah, it's got a lot to fill in that valuation — it would just take a lot of growth. Maybe the growth accelerates. We saw that with Nvidia, right? They started to have unprecedented growth. Any thoughts on the Palantir short while we move on?"

"Chamath,我觉得大家看的是那个 30% 到 45% 的同比增长,然后说:对,这个估值有一大块坑要填——得靠很猛的增长才行,说不定增速还会加速。我们在 Nvidia 身上就见过,对吧?它后来出现了前所未有的增长。在我们进下一个话题前,你对做空 Palantir 有什么看法?"

"Well, I think the Palantir short is stupid, and I think those people will lose money. The thing that the people shorting this company don't understand is that all of these other businesses you put up there, there is a viable competitor of some kind that you can switch to."

"我觉得做空 Palantir 很蠢,那帮人会亏钱。做空它的人没搞懂的是:你放上去的那些别的公司,每一家都有某种能替代它、你可以转投过去的对手。"

"So what I would say is the opposite of what they're saying: you have a low multiple to sales when the churn risk is higher. So look at the one with the lowest multiple to sales, MongoDB. There's 90 versions of what MongoDB does."

"所以我的说法跟他们正好相反:市销率低,恰恰是因为流失(churn)风险高。你看市销率最低的那家,MongoDB——市面上有 90 个能干 MongoDB 那套事的替代品。"

"I'm not going to say whether MongoDB is good or bad — it's actually a good company, extremely well-run, but it's not unique. Snowflake is not unique, but it is well-run. Palantir is both unique and well-run, and there's no clear alternative. So there's no place to turn to."

"我不评价 MongoDB 好坏——它其实是家好公司,经营得极好,但它不'独一无二'。Snowflake 也不独特,但运营得好。Palantir 既独一无二、又经营得好,而且没有明确的替代品。所以你无处可换。"

"And I think the reason it has a premium valuation is because the duration and durability of these cash flows are much longer than what you typically see in any of these other companies. And if people took a thousandth of a second to actually use their brain, they'd come to that conclusion."

"我认为它享有溢价估值的原因,是它这些现金流的持续时间和稳固程度,远比你在其他公司身上通常看到的要长。人们要是肯花千分之一秒动动脑子,也会得出这个结论。"

"Lack of competitors would be the reason you think it's more defensible."

"也就是说,你觉得它更有护城河,是因为缺乏竞争对手。"

"By the way, I'm neither long nor short. I was long in the private markets — I was an investor in the Series B round. I'm not long anymore. I wish I was, but I'm not. So it's not like I have a vested interest in this being right."

"顺便说,我既不做多也不做空。我在私募市场上做过多头——B 轮的时候我是投资人。现在不持仓了,虽然真希望还持着,但没有。所以我并不是因为屁股决定脑袋才说它对。"

"But it's just so obvious that what they do is completely unique and completely differentiated. There is no alternative in the market for it. That's why they trade such a huge premium to sales."

"但太明显了:他们做的事完全独一无二、完全差异化,市面上没有替代品。这就是他们能享受如此高市销率溢价的原因。"

"And there is no competitor to the greatest holiday party ever, happening December 6th in San Francisco. Come with your besties."

"顺便——史上最棒的假日派对也没有竞争对手,12 月 6 日在旧金山,带上你的死党们来。"

"God, I'm in such a bad mood. I've gotten no sleep. I'm so tired. Sax goes in the back, Sax sleeps — he's like fresh as a daisy. When we landed — the winds in San Francisco, I don't know what's going on. We landed in Oakland. Holy man, it was like a category 4 hurricane on the West Coast this week."

"天啊,我心情糟透了,完全没睡,累死了。Sax 往后一躺就能睡,下飞机跟朵鲜花似的。我们落地时——旧金山那风,不知道怎么回事,我们改降在奥克兰了。老天,这周西海岸那阵势跟四级飓风一样。"

"Unbelievable. You were coming in from the West Coast — you were in DC, I guess, meeting with... you had some business meetings there, or some political meetings."

"离谱。你是从西海岸这边过来的——之前你在华盛顿,我猜是去见……你在那边有些商务会面,或者说政治性的会面。"

"Let's play Where's Waldo. Here, Nick, post the picture. No, no, Nick — zoom out. Zoom out. Where's Waldo?"

"来玩个'找沃利'吧。Nick,把照片放出来。不不,Nick——拉远点,拉远。找到沃利了吗?"

"Okay, here's a bunch of people in the White House."

"好,这是一群人在白宫里。"

"Bill Ackman is right in the back. You can see his hand right beside Nat's. That's Ken Moelis, obviously. Steve Schwarzman, me, Burgum..."

"Bill Ackman 就在后排,你能看到他的手就在 Nat 旁边。那位显然是 Ken Moelis。还有 Steve Schwarzman、我、Burgum……"

"Look at you, all the way [in the back]. Great guys. Well, one of these guys is not like the other."

"瞧你,躲在最后面。都是大佬。不过嘛——这几位里有一个跟其他人不太一样(笑)。"

"Yeah, it was awesome. What happened was we were having dinner, and then he said, at 9:45, 'I'm going to go down to the Oval and sign the bill to reopen the government.' He said, 'Do you guys want to come?' So we all came."

"对,特别棒。事情是这样:我们正吃着晚饭,然后他在 9:45 说'我要下去椭圆办公室,签那份重新开门(结束政府停摆)的法案',还问'你们要不要一起来?'于是我们全去了。"

"When you say you were having dinner — you and Nat were having dinner with the president?"

"你说'正吃着晚饭'——是你和 Nat 跟总统一起吃饭?"

"No, no, no. He was hosting a dinner for financial leaders. We were invited. It was cool."

"不不不。是他给金融界的头面人物办了场晚宴,我们受邀出席。挺酷的。"

"So you went to dinner with the president. That looks almost as amazing and extravagant as the—"

"所以你跟总统共进了晚餐。这看着几乎和那场……一样华丽铺张——"

"I got a cologne. You know the cologne where he sprayed it on?"

"我还得了瓶古龙水。你知道那种他亲手喷上去的古龙水吗?"

"Yeah. He's spraying it on foreign leaders — they come in, he sprays it on them, and then they're allowed to come in the White House. Trump carrying the cologne with him and spraying people at the dinners?"

"知道。他往外国领导人身上喷——他们进门,他给喷一下,然后才准进白宫。特朗普随身带着古龙水,在晚宴上给人喷?"

"Me and Steve Schwarzman got a push-push, on both sides of the neck. No — after the press conference was done and he reopened government, he's like, 'Hey, you guys want to come back?' I'll be honest with you, it smells very good."

"我和 Steve Schwarzman 一人脖子两侧各来了一下。不是——是发布会结束、他宣布政府重新开门之后,他说'嘿,你们要不要回来坐坐?'说实话,那味儿真挺好闻的。"

"I think they should have a little gift shop at the White House with all the Trump stuff, the steaks. Oh. So anyway — come to the holiday party. It's going to be a blast. There are a couple tickets left, not many."

"我觉得白宫真该开个小礼品店,卖全套特朗普周边、那些牛排啥的。行吧——总之,来假日派对吧,绝对嗨爆。还剩几张票,不多了。"

"We're going to burn it down this year with our bestie Tony Hinchcliffe. Casino night with poker. We've got a celebrity DJ coming — Freeberg's going to be on the ones and twos. Allin.com/events. And hey, the tequila has shipped. David, it seems like the bottles have started to ship."

"今年我们要跟死党 Tony Hinchcliffe 一起把气氛掀翻。赌场之夜、有扑克。还请了位明星 DJ——Friedberg 要亲自打碟。网址 Allin.com/events。对了,龙舌兰(酒)已经发货了。David(Friedberg),看起来那些酒瓶已经开始发了。"

"Yeah, people are feeling pretty good about it. Yeah, it's exciting. The world's greatest tequila is going to be surprisingly well-received."

"对,大家反响挺好。挺让人兴奋的。这款'世界第一龙舌兰'的口碑,会好得出乎意料。"

"Very exciting. Okay — from the number one podcast in the world, with the world's greatest moderator..."

"非常令人兴奋。好——欢迎收听全世界排名第一的播客,由全世界最伟大的主持人主持……"

"All right, listen. There is an affordability crisis. Last weekend, the Trump administration floated a pretty wild idea of a 50-year mortgage that would ostensibly cut monthly payments by 20-30%, and maybe theoretically boost home ownership."

"好,听着。确实存在一场'买不起'危机。上周末,特朗普政府抛出了一个相当疯狂的点子——50 年期房贷,名义上能把月供砍掉 20% 到 30%,理论上也许能提高住房自有率。"

"The idea was slammed by many people in MAGA saying, hey, this is debt slavery, and it's going to triple the lifetime interest — you'll be paying through the nose your entire life and you'll be an indentured servant."

"这个点子被 MAGA 阵营里不少人痛批,说这是'债务奴役',会把一辈子付的利息翻三倍——你这辈子都在被狠宰,活成个契约奴工。"

"Politico said the idea was brought about by FHFA director Bill Pulte. Pulte tweeted that the FHFA was 'actively evaluating portable mortgages.' Now, this is a really good idea. That means you can take your mortgage with you if you go buy another home, if you upgrade a home."

"Politico 说这个点子是 FHFA(联邦住房金融局)局长 Bill Pulte 提出的。Pulte 发推说 FHFA 正在'积极评估可携带房贷'。这个才是好主意——意思是你换房、升级住房时,可以把原来的房贷一并带走。"

"That would obviously get people out of homes they've maybe outgrown, or that their kids have left and there are extra bedrooms — and that's not happening because people are afraid to unwind a 2 or 3% mortgage to upgrade to a 6 or 7% one."

"这显然能让人从'住不下了'或'孩子搬走、空出好几间房'的房子里换出来——现在这事没发生,是因为大家舍不得放弃 2%、3% 的低息房贷,去换一笔 6%、7% 的高息贷款。"

"The National Association of Realtors released a report last week: the average age of a first-time home buyer is now 40 years old. That's up from 28 in 1991 when I was in college."

"全美房地产经纪人协会(NAR)上周发了份报告:首次购房者的平均年龄现在是 40 岁。1991 年我上大学时才 28 岁。"

"And in the 30 years from 1991 to 2021, it only increased a modest 18% — from 28 to 33. So in the last four years, it's jumped from 33 to 40 years old for the average first-time home buyer. A clip of friend of the pod Ben Shapiro went viral. Here's a 25-second clip and we'll talk about it after."

"从 1991 到 2021 这 30 年里,它只温和地涨了 18%——从 28 到 33 岁。可就在过去这四年,首次购房者的平均年龄从 33 岁一路蹿到了 40 岁。我们节目的朋友 Ben Shapiro 有段视频火了,先放这 25 秒,看完再聊。"

"If you're a young person and you can't afford to live here, then maybe you should not live here. I mean, that is a real thing. I know we've now grown up in a society that says you deserve to live where you grew up."

"如果你是年轻人,又住不起这里,那也许你就不该住在这里。我是说,这是个真实的道理。我知道,我们如今长在一个'你理应住在自己从小长大的地方'的社会里。"

"But the reality is that the history of America is almost literally the opposite of that. The history of America is you go to a place where there is opportunity. And if the opportunities are limited here and they're not changing, then you really should try to think about other places where you have better opportunities."

"但现实是,美国的历史几乎恰恰相反。美国的历史,是你奔向有机会的地方。如果这里机会有限、又看不到改变,那你真该认真想想别的、机会更好的地方。"

"Pretty obvious statement there from Ben Shapiro. Your thoughts generally on affordability, Chamath?"

"Ben Shapiro 这话挺直白的。Chamath,你对'买不起'这件事整体怎么看?"

"It's a real problem. I think this is the keystone topic that has to be navigated correctly for the Republicans to win the midterms. I think there are three critical issues if I had to put my finger on it."

"这是个真问题。我认为这是共和党要赢中期选举必须处理对的'压舱石'议题。要我点出来的话,有三个关键问题。"

"Issue number one is housing. So Ben is right there. Specifically, the problem is that older folks own all the homes and own multiple homes, and younger folks just cannot get into the housing market, and cities and states do not do a good job of creating incentives for new homes to be built."

"第一个是住房。这点 Ben 说得对。具体说,问题在于:老一辈把房子都占了、还一人多套,年轻人根本挤不进楼市;而城市和州政府又不擅长设计激励去推动新房建设。"

"The second, I think, is still around healthcare. The emergent data on the cost of Obamacare is horrible. Obamacare has been an unmitigated failure. The concept of capping gross margin, while it seemed good theoretically, has really turned out to be an incredibly stupid thing."

"第二个,我觉得还是在医疗。关于 Obamacare 成本的新数据糟透了。Obamacare 是一场彻头彻尾的失败。'给毛利率设上限'这个概念,理论上看着不错,实际证明是件极其愚蠢的事。"

"So what that meant, Jason, is in Obamacare there was this feature that said you can only make a 15% gross margin. And what the folks at the White House at the time thought would happen is that costs would go down, because their gross margin would be limited."

"Jason,这意思是:Obamacare 里有条规定,说你的毛利率最多只能到 15%。当时白宫那帮人以为会发生的,是成本会往下走,因为毛利被限死了。"

"Instead, what they did was they just started to raise the gross prices of everything, so that the 15% applied to a much bigger number."

"结果呢,他们反而开始把所有东西的总价往上抬,好让那 15% 是从一个大得多的基数上算出来的。"

"And so you saw the president this week trying to see if he could just take the health incentives and give them directly to people and put it in their HSA accounts, so that it didn't need to flow through the healthcare infrastructure and the insurance companies. So that needs to get fixed."

"所以你看,总统这周在琢磨:能不能干脆把医保补贴直接发给个人、打进他们的 HSA(健康储蓄账户),不用再经过整套医疗基建和保险公司那一层。这块得修。"

"And then the third is on the student debt side. I'm sort of copying Peter Thiel here, but he's been saying for a while that we have to be much more sympathetic to loan forgiveness, and I think he's right."

"第三个是学生债这边。我这多少是在抄 Peter Thiel 的观点——他很早就一直说,我们得对'免除贷款'有更多同情和松动,我觉得他是对的。"

"So if we get these three issues addressed — something in housing, something in healthcare, and something on the student loan side — it is a transformational domestic policy agenda that puts affordability front and center that will impact 50 to 75 million American households."

"所以如果这三个问题都能有所动作——住房上做点事、医疗上做点事、学生贷款上做点事——这就是一套把'可负担性'摆在正中央的、变革性的内政议程,能惠及 5000 万到 7500 万个美国家庭。"

"Freeberg, your thoughts? If you pull up this article from yesterday — LA city council held a vote, 12 to 2. In this vote, they limited the amount that a landlord can increase the rent every year."

"Friedberg,你怎么看?把昨天那篇报道调出来——洛杉矶市议会做了次投票,12 比 2。这次投票限制了房东每年能涨多少租金。"

"This is rent stabilization. So it limits what a landlord can charge in rent. They passed the vote 12 to 2. And what they voted is that the landlord cannot increase the rent on an annual basis by more than 90% of CPI."

"这叫'租金稳定'(rent stabilization),也就是限制房东能收多少租。他们以 12 比 2 通过了。投票内容是:房东每年涨租,不得超过 CPI 的 90%。"

"CPI is the consumer price index, published by a federal agency every year — it's the inflation index we often talk about — with a floor of 1%. So the landlord, regardless of CPI, can increase rent by 1%, and a cap of 4%."

"CPI 就是消费者物价指数,每年由联邦机构发布——就是我们节目常说的那个通胀指标——同时设了 1% 的下限。所以不管 CPI 多少,房东最少能涨 1%,上限则是 4%。"

"And fundamentally, to think about this as an investor: if you're buying or building a new building, you are now going to have your equity capped. Your upside — the cash flows you can generate from that apartment building — is now limited by how much you can increase the rent every year."

"从投资者角度想这事:你要是买楼或者盖新楼,你的股权回报现在被封顶了。你的上行空间——这栋公寓楼能给你产生的现金流——就被'每年只能涨这么多租'给限死了。"

"So that creates a disincentive for capital, for investors to buy new buildings or put money into upgrading or building new buildings. At the same time, LA, California, and the federal government have passed law after law, regulation after regulation, statute after statute that makes it more expensive, take more time, and more difficult to build housing."

"于是资本、投资人就没动力去买新楼、翻新旧楼或盖新楼了。与此同时,洛杉矶、加州乃至联邦政府又一部接一部地立法、一条接一条地出台监管和法规,把盖房这件事变得更贵、更慢、更难。"

"The increase in regulation combined with the cap on economic access to free markets has made it increasingly difficult for there to be a free flow of capital to go build new housing. Every time the government gets involved in a market, it distorts the market. It limits the flow of liquidity and it limits the market finding lower prices."

"监管加码,再叠加对'自由市场经济通道'的封顶,资本要自由地流去盖新房就越来越难。政府每次插手一个市场,都会扭曲这个市场——它限制了流动性的流动,也阻止了市场自己去发现更低的价格。"

"The government is now trying to limit what a landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it's ripped out all of the incentive for landlords to buy and own these buildings, because they're now only going to be small-yielding investments and there's no upside."

"政府现在这么狠地限制房东能收多少租,等于把房东'买楼、持有'的动力全抽走了——因为这些楼现在只剩微薄的收益、没有上行空间。"

"Same thing happened with Prop 13, which we passed in California in 1978, which creates a huge disincentive for people to sell their homes and reduces liquidity in the market."

"加州 1978 年通过的 13 号提案(Prop 13)也是一样,它极大地打消了人们卖房的意愿,减少了市场的流动性。"

"Now, I'll flip to the federal agencies. Fannie and Freddie combined have issued or supported about $8 trillion of home loans. The initial view would be, okay, great — they're creating liquidity for a market that doesn't have it, for people who need access to capital."

"再说回联邦机构。房利美(Fannie)和房地美(Freddie)加起来,发放或支持了大约 8 万亿美元的房贷。乍一看会觉得挺好——它们给一个缺流动性的市场注入了流动性,帮到了需要融资的人。"

"But as you fast-forward over many years, the fundamental reality in a very liquid, well-capitalized marketplace like we have today is that that capital is actually excess liquidity that can in fact drive prices up."

"可你把时间快进很多年就会发现,在我们今天这样一个高度流动、资本充裕的市场里,那笔钱其实是'过剩流动性',反而会把价格推高。"

"And much like we've seen in education with student loans, or healthcare with Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare — when the government gets involved and provides capital to 'support' a market and make it more accessible, the prices skyrocket."

"这跟我们在教育(学生贷款)、医疗(Medicare、Medicaid、Obamacare)里看到的一模一样——政府一介入、注资去'支持'某个市场、让它更'可及',价格就飞上天。"

"So people will use a Fannie or Freddie Mac loan to buy a first home, and then they can go buy their second or third home, or afford a more expensive home they otherwise might not have. And so over time it creates an inflationary effect in the markets."

"于是人们用房利美或房地美的贷款买第一套房,接着又能去买第二套、第三套,或者买得起本来买不起的更贵的房。久而久之,就在市场里制造出通胀效应。"

"So we're adding restrictions for building new homes, we're capping the amount you can make on homes, and we're giving liquidity to markets to drive up the price of homes — all of which create this perfect storm of disaster, where we just raise our hands and say, 'Please government, do more.'"

"所以我们一边给建新房层层设限,一边给房产收益封顶,一边又往市场里灌流动性把房价推高——这几样凑齐了一场完美风暴的灾难,而我们却只会两手一摊,喊'政府啊,请你再多做点'。"

"And if the government does more, I can tell you one thing for sure: prices are going to go up even more. And so one of the hardest things to do is say, 'Hey government, do less,' and figure out a way to back out of this situation."

"可政府要是'再多做点',有一件事我敢打包票:价格只会涨得更高。所以最难做到的一件事,恰恰是说一句'政府啊,请少做点',然后想办法从这个泥潭里退出来。"

"Perfect segue into what I'm seeing on the ground. I lived in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and as folks know now, I live in Austin, Texas. There are really two different countries here."

"正好接上我在一线看到的情况。我在纽约、洛杉矶、旧金山都住过,现在大家也知道,我住在德州 Austin。美国其实是'两个国家'。"

"You have people living in coastal cities where you're not allowed to build units and rent is incredibly expensive, and you make the same amount of money. When I grew up in Brooklyn — I went to school at night, took 5 years to get my degree from Fordham University. I had 12K in student loan debt."

"一边是住在沿海城市的人:那里不许盖房、租金贵得离谱,而你挣的钱其实差不多。我在布鲁克林长大——上夜校,花了 5 年才从 Fordham 大学毕业,背了 1.2 万美元的学生贷款。"

"I was making 40 to 60,000 a year while in college — that was a big salary back then — but my apartment in Brooklyn was 500 a month. I lived in an attic apartment."

"上大学期间我一年挣 4 万到 6 万美元——在当年是笔不小的薪水——可我在布鲁克林的公寓一个月才 500 块,住的是阁楼里的房子。"

"So if you were to take two people like that in America today, they're making 60 to 70K — that's the average salary for college-educated people who are 27 years old. If you live in Austin, it is absolutely no problem for you to own a home."

"你要是把两个这样的人放到今天的美国,他们一年挣 6 到 7 万——这是 27 岁、受过大学教育者的平均薪水。你要是住在 Austin,买房完全不是问题。"

"We have so many units in Austin, Texas. And in Houston it's even more pronounced. Austin rent has gone down 20% in the last 3 years because we build units. When you build units, when you have supply, prices go down."

"德州 Austin 的房子多得是,Houston 更夸张。Austin 的房租过去三年跌了 20%,就因为我们在盖房。你一盖房、有了供给,价格就往下走。"

"And the stupid people in San Francisco with their woke [attitude] are like, 'Oh, you're building luxury units.' Let me tell you what happens, dumbasses, when you build luxury units: the rich hipsters who are living in shitty apartments in the Mission upgrade to luxury buildings."

"旧金山那帮'觉醒(woke)'的蠢货就会说:'哦,你们在盖豪宅。'蠢货们,让我告诉你盖豪宅会发生什么:那些住在 Mission 区破公寓里的有钱潮人,会升级搬进豪华楼盘。"

"How do I know this? They're doing it in Austin. If you live in a crummy apartment and you see these beautiful apartments with luxurious pools, restaurants, cafes, co-working spaces, you move to one of those — and that frees up that unit."

"我怎么知道?Austin 就在这么干。你要是住在破公寓里,看到那些带豪华泳池、餐厅、咖啡馆、联合办公空间的漂亮公寓,你会搬过去——于是你原来那套就空出来了。"

"In Austin, if you make $130,000 a year — as a couple — your rent is going to be 10%, 15% max of your income. And you'll be able to make a 10% down payment, because the homes within 25 miles, under 45 minutes' drive to the city center — do you know how much they are per square foot where I live?"

"在 Austin,你们小两口一年挣 13 万美元的话,房租最多占你收入的 10% 到 15%。你还付得起 10% 的首付,因为市中心 25 英里内、开车 45 分钟以内的房子——你知道我住那片每平方英尺多少钱吗?"

"How much?"

"多少?"

"They are $200 to $300 per square foot. You can buy a three-bedroom for 300,000 to 500,000. You can buy a brand new one for 500,000."

"每平方英尺 200 到 300 美元。三居室 30 万到 50 万就能买;全新的一套 50 万拿下。"

"So Ben Shapiro is absolutely correct. The people who are upset at Ben Shapiro are a bunch of hipsters who went hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, are paying $5,000 or $6,000 a month in rent, and can never get out from under their rent payment or their liberal arts degree."

"所以 Ben Shapiro 完全正确。那些对 Ben Shapiro 生气的人,是一群背着几十万美元债、每月付 5000、6000 美元房租的潮人,一辈子都从自己的房租和文科学位底下爬不出来。"

"If you're a smart person, go to the University of Texas, graduate with little to no debt, live in a modest apartment, put down a down payment, and buy a $500,000 home. This problem doesn't exist in Texas. It doesn't exist in a lot of markets."

"你要是个聪明人,去读德州大学(UT),几乎不背债地毕业,住个普通公寓,攒够首付,买套 50 万的房。这个问题在德州根本不存在,在很多市场都不存在。"

"Last night at dinner, Jason, the president asked, 'What could we do? What are some ideas around student debt?' And Bill Ackman had a great idea, which was: we need to put the university on the hook as the first loss."

"Jason,昨晚吃饭时,总统问'我们能做点什么?关于学生债有什么点子?'Bill Ackman 提了个很棒的主意:得让大学作为'首笔亏损方'来兜底。"

"And his suggestion was 20,000 was what he said. I don't know if that's the right number, but the logic he made was: if the universities are forced to underwrite these degrees and they know they'll take the first dollar loss up to 20, 30, 40,000, they'll be much more circumspect about what degrees they force onto people."

"他建议的数字是 2 万美元。我不确定这数对不对,但他的逻辑是:如果大学被迫为它们发的学位'背书担保',并且知道自己要承担头 2 万、3 万、4 万美元的首笔亏损,它们对'到底该把什么学位塞给学生'就会谨慎得多。"

"And that will be a telltale sign that a lot of these degrees don't make any sense. Right now we don't have a market check to tell young people that. So we push them all into school thinking it's the right thing to do, and then they're just completely saddled and they'll never get up."

"这会成为一个明确的信号:很多学位根本没意义。现在我们没有一个市场机制去告诉年轻人这一点。于是我们把他们全推进大学,以为这是对的,结果他们被债务彻底压垮、再也翻不了身。"

"You have to do math, people. You have to have agency and you have to be self-reliant. When I went to school, there were some kids — and it's happening now — who think they have to live on campus. They think they have to go for four years."

"你们得会算账。你得有能动性(agency),得靠自己。我上学那会儿有些孩子——现在也一样——觉得自己非得住校,非得读满四年。"

"If you have a job and you take five years to get your degree and you don't live on campus, your debt position when you graduate is going to be much different. If you have a job that's in demand, you'll make 60, 70, 80K."

"你要是一边打工、花五年读完学位、又不住校,毕业时的负债状况会完全不一样。要是你干的是市场紧缺的活,你能挣 6 万、7 万、8 万。"

"If you come out with less debt, if you live in an attic apartment, if you do a little austerity, people — and you do a spreadsheet of your finances, which I had to do because my dad was a bartender, my mom was a nurse. I had to pay for college myself. I had to think it through."

"少背点债毕业、住个阁楼、稍微紧巴一点过日子,各位——再做张自己财务的电子表格。这些我当年都得做,因为我爸是酒保、我妈是护士,大学得自己掏钱,我必须把账算清楚。"

"These elite lunatic kids in New York City or San Francisco think they deserve to live in Manhattan. You don't have a god-given right to live in Tokyo, France, Hong Kong, or any of the major cities. You need to live in the suburbs. You need to commute an hour to school."

"纽约、旧金山那帮精英疯孩子,觉得自己理应住在曼哈顿。你没有天赋人权非住在东京、法国、香港这些大城市不可。你该住在郊区,通勤一小时去上学。"

"France is a country."

"法国是个国家(不是城市)。"

"In Paris. Thank you. In Paris, sorry. If you live in Paris, London — these are not your god-given right. Live an hour outside the city center and take the tube, people. These lunatics think they deserve it."

"我是说巴黎。谢谢提醒。巴黎,抱歉。你要住巴黎、伦敦——这些都不是你的天赋人权。住到离市中心一小时的地方,坐地铁,各位。这帮疯子却觉得这是他们应得的。"

"Can we just title this episode 'Grumpy Chamath and Soapbox JCal'?"

"我们能不能干脆把这期标题定成《暴躁 Chamath 和站在肥皂箱上演讲的 JCal》?"

"Did you bring your own soapbox to Tokyo, or did you buy one there? You're going to upset so many of the private equity wives that you spend most of your time currying favor from."

"你是自带肥皂箱(演讲台)去东京的,还是在当地买的?你这套会惹毛一大堆私募股权老板的太太们——你平时大把时间不都花在讨好她们上吗?"

"I haven't met any private equity wives. I don't know where they are, but literally these kids are so—"

"我一个私募老板太太都没见过。不知道她们在哪儿,但说真的,这些孩子实在太——"

"They're in your comments for sure. When you listen — you're such a narcissist. You will eventually run for some political office, and that'll be— You'll be the first to donate to— Give me a break, bro. You know why I would? Because you're one of my best friends and I love you. So yes, sight unseen — you tell me how much you need, I'll give it to you. But it's not because I believe you're right or you should win."

"她们绝对在你评论区里。你听我说——你就是个自恋狂。你早晚会去竞选个什么公职,到时候——你会第一个给我捐钱——得了吧,兄弟。你知道我为什么会捐吗?因为你是我最好的朋友之一,我爱你。所以行,想都不用想——你说要多少,我就给多少。但绝不是因为我认为你对、或者你该赢。"

"Coming back to New York after Mamdani burns it down. Mayorjason.com — bookmark it. 'I am donating to you [with] no alignment to philosophy, ideology, or your potential chances of winning. It's purely for—' There it is. Hey guys, book it now. I'm controlled by big tech and finance interests."

"等 Mamdani 把纽约折腾垮之后,我就杀回纽约。Mayorjason.com——记得收藏。'我给你捐钱,与理念、意识形态、你的胜算全无关系,纯粹是为了——'来了来了。各位,现在就订上。我是被大科技和金融利益操控的人(自嘲)。"

"I guess related to the angst about affordability was the flare-up of H-1Bs. Again, Trump went viral after Laura Ingraham on Fox kind of pushed him pretty hard on H-1B visas, and he stood his ground — that we need high-skilled workers in America. Here's your 25-second clip."

"跟'买不起'的焦虑相关的,还有 H-1B 签证的再次爆发。特朗普又火了一把——Fox 的 Laura Ingraham 在 H-1B 问题上把他逼得挺紧,而他寸步不让:美国需要高技能工人。先放这 25 秒。"

"The H-1B visa thing will not be a big priority for your administration, because if you want to raise wages for American workers, you can't flood the country with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of foreign workers."

"H-1B 签证不会是你这届政府的重点吧——因为如果你想给美国工人涨工资,就不能拿几万、几十万外国工人把这个国家淹没。"

"You also do have to bring in talent when you don't have talented people."

"可当你没有有本事的人的时候,你确实也得引进人才。"

"No, you don't. No, you don't. How did we ever do it before?"

"不,你不需要。不需要。那我们以前是怎么做到的?"

"We don't have talented people. No, you don't have certain talents, and people have to learn. You can't take people off an unemployment line and say, 'I'm going to put you into a factory, we're going to make missiles.'"

"我们(某些领域)就是没有有本事的人。你就是没有某些方面的人才,这些是要学的。你不能从失业救济队伍里拉个人出来,就说'我要把你塞进工厂,我们来造导弹'。"

"Chamath, your thoughts here? We've talked till we're blue in the face about the value and the abuse of H-1B visas, but it's coming up again. At a time when Trump's popularity is a little bit low and people are suffering with inflation not going down — this seems to be another point of contention."

"Chamath,你怎么看?H-1B 签证的价值和滥用,我们已经聊到脸都绿了,但它又冒出来了。眼下特朗普的支持率有点低、通胀又降不下去、大家日子不好过——这似乎又成了一个争议焦点。"

"I think we have to overhaul the H-1B program. Last night at dinner, Howard Lutnick explained how some of these abuses happen. It's really unfair how it works."

"我认为我们必须彻底重整 H-1B 项目。昨晚吃饭时,Howard Lutnick 讲了这些滥用是怎么发生的。这套机制运作得实在太不公平了。"

"What he described is that when the application window opens for what is a very small number of H-1Bs, a company that has, call it 300,000 employees abroad will apply on behalf of all 300,000, because they're all roughly the same kind of employee. Whoever gets it gets to come over."

"他描述的是:当申请窗口开放、而名额本就很少的时候,一家在海外有比如 30 万员工的公司,会替全部 30 万人一起申请——因为这些人大体是同一类员工。谁抽中了,谁就能过来。"

"Now, if you're filing 300,000 applications, obviously you have a disproportionately larger chance than Freeberg's company or my company or your company, Jason, who's filing one. And so when those things happen and you can use the data to understand it, you have to fix it."

"那你要是递了 30 万份申请,中签概率显然远高于 Friedberg 的公司、我的公司,或者 Jason 你的公司——我们只递一份。这种事一旦发生、又能用数据看清楚,就必须修。"

"So that's one very material and obvious change — we have to allow American companies to find these folks and have it be very precise. The second thing is that we're introducing a price that each of these companies can pay, so that you can signal clearly the disproportionate economic value that person can create."

"这是第一个很实质、很明显要改的地方——得让美国公司去精准地锁定这些人。第二件事,是我们要引入一个价格,让每家公司为此付费,好清晰地标示出这个人能创造的、异乎寻常的经济价值。"

"And the fact that after all the effort possible you can't find that person here — that's why you're willing to pay $100,000, which is a non-trivial amount of money. So when both of those are introduced — the $100,000 thing and the visa application abuse is fixed — we'll go a long way to cleaning up the H-1B thing."

"以及一个事实:你使尽了浑身解数,也在本土找不到这个人——这才是你愿意为他掏 10 万美元的原因,而 10 万可不是小数目。所以等这两件事都落地——10 万美元的收费,加上抽签滥用被堵住——H-1B 这摊事就能被理顺一大截。"

"But right now, there's just a lot of abuse. The program itself is not working the way it should."

"但眼下,滥用实在太多了。这个项目本身,根本没按它该有的样子在运转。"

"And I think this has largely been solved. It's a communication issue for the Trump administration, because they did put this $100,000 fee on it that's already in effect. And I've been saying this for a decade: there's massive abuse on the bottom half, and it's necessary on the top half."

"我觉得这事其实基本解决了。这是特朗普政府的沟通问题——因为他们确实已经加了那个 10 万美元的费用,而且已经生效。这话我说了十年了:底层那一半是大规模滥用,顶层那一半是刚需。"

"If you're bringing in IT people for $40 to $80,000, it's not viable to put a $20-30-40,000 fee on top of that. But if you're Google or Facebook and you're bringing in a PhD in AI who's going to get paid a million dollars, that $100,000 fee — $20-30,000 a year, whatever it winds up being — is nothing. It's de minimis."

"你要是花 4 万到 8 万美元引进 IT 人员,再在上面加 2、3、4 万的费用,根本不划算。但你要是 Google 或 Facebook,引进的是年薪百万的 AI 博士,那 10 万美元的费用——摊到每年 2、3 万,不管最后是多少——都不算什么,微不足道。"

"I take it one step further, Freeberg — I think we should be auctioning these."

"Friedberg,我再往前推一步——我觉得这些名额应该拿去拍卖。"

"Freeberg, would you pay $100,000 for the right person that you could not find? And are there jobs where right now you're like, man, I can't find people that are highly specialized?"

"Friedberg,为了一个你本来找不到的对的人,你愿意付 10 万美元吗?有没有一些岗位,你现在会觉得'天,我根本找不到这么专精的人'?"

"I could see that. Yeah. Fortunately, we can recruit those sorts of people in my industry because we're very special, but yeah, I could understand — particularly as it relates to software, I could see people definitely doing that."

"我能想象。是的。所幸在我这个行业,这类人我们还招得到,因为我们比较特殊;但我能理解——尤其是软件相关的岗位,我完全能想象有人真会去这么做。"

"And the way to really do this — this is Trump's superpower — is turning something that's a cost center into a profit center. I always give him credit when he does something brilliant. And the brilliant thing to do is to take the $100,000 and make it an auction. I would auction off half of these to the highest bidder."

"而真正的做法——这正是特朗普的超能力——是把一个成本中心变成利润中心。他做出漂亮事的时候,我一向给他记功。漂亮的做法,就是把这 10 万美元变成拍卖:我会把其中一半名额拍给出价最高的人。"

"And then you'd have Google, Facebook, and Meta saying, instead of 'give me a hundred thousand at the rack rate,' they'd say, 'I need 10 of these for sure — I'll bid a million. I need another hundred — I'm willing to bid 750.' And then take that money and allocate it to vocational training and retraining."

"这样 Google、Facebook、Meta 就不会说'按标价给我来 10 万个',而会说'这 10 个我一定要——我出一百万竞价;再要 100 个——我愿意出 75 万'。然后把这笔钱拿去做职业培训和再培训。"

"You know, the problem is this administration has two different sides. You have the brilliant people I admire very much, like Lutnick and Sacks and the business people. And then you have the knuckleheads, in my mind — the people doing the stuff with the ICE agents and the deportations."

"问题在于,这届政府有两副面孔。一边是我非常敬佩的聪明人,像 Lutnick、Sacks 和那些商界的人;另一边,在我看来,是一群蠢货——就是搞 ICE 突击执法和驱逐那套的人。"

"And the perfect example came up with the H-1B visas. They took the Hyundai plant, where you needed high-skilled workers, and they arrested and deported a bunch of South Koreans in a very brutal, very disrespectful way — at the same time that Lutnick is out there trying to get people to invest and build factories here."

"H-1B 上就有个绝佳例子。他们冲进那座本就需要高技能工人的现代(Hyundai)工厂,用极其粗暴、极不尊重的方式逮捕并驱逐了一批韩国人——而与此同时,Lutnick 正在外面拼命招揽外资、劝人来美国建厂。"

"You can't be deporting people with Stephen Miller's deranged process of running people down and treating them inhumanely, and at the same time be saying, 'Hey, we want you to invest and build a battery factory.'"

"你不能一边用 Stephen Miller 那套疯狂的手段追捕、非人地对待并驱逐人,一边又说'嘿,我们希望你来投资、建电池厂'。"

"Hyundai has a battery factory. These lunatics came there and arrested and chained up South Koreans who are our partners, who are helping us rebuild our Navy. This is where the administration has to speak with one voice, and it needs to be the professional, smart people."

"现代有座电池厂。这帮疯子跑进去,给我们的合作伙伴——那些正帮我们重建海军的韩国人——戴上手铐。这正是这届政府必须'用一个声音说话'的地方,而且那个声音得是那些专业、聪明的人。"

"They already solved this problem and they can't communicate it properly. Let Bessent go out there and communicate this over and over. It's a profit center now. And don't arrest the South Koreans who were trying to build factories here."

"他们其实已经把这个问题解决了,却讲不明白。让 Bessent 出去反反复复地把这事说清楚:它现在是个利润中心了。还有,别再去抓那些想来这儿建厂的韩国人。"

"Next topic. There were three massive coronal mass ejections this week. These are giant waves of charged particles — protons and electrons, mostly — that shot off from the sun. You can see a graphic."

"下一个话题。这周发生了三次巨大的日冕物质抛射(CME)。这是从太阳上喷出的、由带电粒子(主要是质子和电子)组成的巨浪。看这张图。"

"You have to pick better words, because that looks like Uranus right now. Did you have a burrito? Mass ejections shot out right from Uranus."

"你措辞得讲究点,这图现在看着像'天王星'(Uranus,谐音'你的肛门')。你是不是吃了个卷饼?物质抛射,正好从'天王星'那儿喷出来(玩笑)。"

"Okay. So the sun goes through an 11-year cycle. The sun is a giant ball of plasma. Plasma is where the particles are so hot, so energetic, that the electrons and protons and all the particles kind of split apart."

"好。太阳有一个 11 年的周期。太阳是一个巨大的等离子体(plasma)球。等离子体,就是粒子热到、能量高到电子、质子这些粒子都彼此分开的状态。"

"So you have these subatomic particles moving around at extremely high energy levels. And when the protons smash into each other, that's what fusion is. And that's what causes the energy we get from the sun."

"于是你有这些亚原子粒子在极高的能量水平上四处运动。而当质子彼此撞在一起,那就是核聚变——也就是我们从太阳得到的能量的来源。"

"And because these are charged particles — protons positive, electrons negative — when they're moving around at this high energy in such a dense space, they create very powerful magnetic fields. And those magnetic fields pull and stretch the physics of the surface of the sun."

"由于它们是带电粒子——质子带正电,电子带负电——当它们在如此致密的空间里高能运动时,会产生非常强的磁场。这些磁场会拉扯、拉伸太阳表面的物理结构。"

"And over time there are these cycles where those magnetic field strengths get so strong that once in a while they snap and shoot out a chunk of those particles into space. That is the fundamental physics that drives these coronal mass ejections — big waves of charged particles that shoot flying through space at thousands of miles a second."

"随着时间推移,会有这样的周期:磁场强到某个程度,偶尔会'啪'地断裂,把一大团粒子甩进太空。这就是驱动日冕物质抛射的基本物理——一股股带电粒子的巨浪,以每秒数千英里的速度飞穿太空。"

"And when they hit the Earth, because they're charged particles and we have a magnetic field around the Earth, they interact with the magnetic field and disturb it. And that disturbance can have dramatic effects on GPS, on communications, and can create shorts in conducting material on the surface of the planet."

"当它们撞上地球时,因为都是带电粒子、而地球又有磁场,它们就会与磁场相互作用、扰动磁场。这种扰动会对 GPS、通信造成剧烈影响,还能在地表的导电材料里造成短路。"

"So for years we've talked about there could be an extinction-level event one day if one of these CMEs is so large it could wipe out satellite communication, turn off all computers, cause shorts in electrical grids around the planet. There are all these major risks."

"所以多年来我们一直在说:有朝一日可能出现一次灭绝级事件——如果某次 CME 大到能抹掉卫星通信、关停所有电脑、让全球电网短路。这些都是重大风险。"

"This week it was a very big event. There were three major coronal mass ejections in a row. Two of them combined and hit the Earth at the same time, and we had the highest-level recorded geomagnetic storm, which was G5."

"这周就是一次很大的事件。接连发生了三次大的日冕物质抛射,其中两次合并、同时撞上地球,我们迎来了有记录以来最高等级的地磁暴——G5 级。"

"Fortunately, there was not a lot of reported damage, but we did get to enjoy the beautiful aurora as far south as Texas, because these charged particles move toward the north and south poles and then combine with molecules in the atmosphere. They release light."

"所幸没什么损失被报出来,但我们倒是欣赏到了美丽的极光,南至德州都能看到——因为这些带电粒子会朝南北两极移动,然后与大气中的分子结合,释放出光。"

"You can see these beautiful waves of orange, yellow, red, green, purple lights that look like they're coming down from the heavens all over the planet. It was really an amazing and spectacular sight. So it was a scary week from a solar-storm perspective, but it created a beautiful view here on Earth. But to be clear, there were no other adverse effects from the CME."

"你能看到橙、黄、红、绿、紫的美丽光浪,像是从天而降,笼罩全球。真是壮观又惊艳的一幕。所以从太阳风暴的角度看,这是惊心动魄的一周,却在地球上造出了绝美的景象。不过要说清楚:这次 CME 没有别的不良影响。"

"So far, there are some reports of communications going out in Africa on small networks. I did not hear about widespread satellite failures, which is always a big risk with these things, because they can short out satellites."

"目前有一些报道说非洲的一些小型网络通信中断了。我没听说有大范围的卫星故障——而这类事件里,这一向是大风险,因为它们能把卫星烧短路。"

"Nick, can you pull up this one chart? It shows on a log scale, which means every step up is 10 times bigger than the number before it. You can see that right around midnight London time on November 12th — which, by the way, was just before I got on the airplane to fly from Japan to San Francisco. So I was actually considering not getting on my flight around this time."

"Nick,把这张图调出来。它是对数坐标,也就是每往上一格,数字就是前一格的 10 倍。你能看到,大概在伦敦时间 11 月 12 日午夜前后——顺带一提,那正好是我从日本飞旧金山、上飞机之前。所以那会儿我其实一度考虑不上这班机。"

"Well, he didn't want to have a mass ejection on his flight."

"他是不想在自己那班飞机上来一次'物质抛射'嘛(玩笑)。"

"That would have been really bad. Well, you thought like the GPS could go out or something?"

"那可就糟了。你是担心 GPS 会失灵之类的吗?"

"No, no. This has happened in the past and they do have redundancy for the GPS going out, but the radiation level spikes when you're that high up — but only at higher latitude. So I was looking at the latitude of my flight path."

"不不。这以前发生过,GPS 失灵他们是有冗余备份的;但你飞那么高时,辐射水平会飙升——不过只在高纬度地区。所以我当时在看我这条航线的纬度。"

"But they actually turned off all flights going over the North Pole, because the radiation gets so high. You can't fly over the North Pole when you have this much magnetic flux happening, particularly in the northern latitude."

"而且他们真的停飞了所有经过北极的航班,因为辐射高到那种程度。当有这么强的磁通量在活动时,你不能飞越北极,尤其是在北半球高纬度。"

"So in this image, that red bar is protons moving that have an energy greater than 10 mega-electron-volts, which is not super-high energy. But more scarily is the green one — the green one is 100 mega-electron-volts. This is a massive amount of energy in a proton that can cause serious damage on a microscopic level. It can shred DNA, for example; it can shred circuits."

"在这张图里,那条红柱是能量大于 10 兆电子伏(MeV)的质子,这还不算超高能。更吓人的是绿色那条——绿色是 100 兆电子伏。这是单个质子里极其巨大的能量,能在微观层面造成严重破坏。比如它能撕碎 DNA,也能击穿电路。"

"They count how many they're picking up on these satellites where they have detectors, as they come from the sun. And you can see this extraordinary spike where it spiked up from normally, call it 1, all the way up to a thousand. So it spiked by a 1,000x."

"他们在带探测器的卫星上,统计从太阳飞来的质子数量。你能看到一个惊人的尖峰:从平时大概 1 的水平,一路冲到 1000。也就是暴涨了 1000 倍。"

"Wow."

"哇。"

"— in 5 minutes. And so this is a massive increase in the natural background effect of charged protons shooting at this extremely high energy through space and hitting Earth."

"——就在 5 分钟之内。所以这是带电质子以极高能量穿越太空、撞击地球这一自然背景效应的一次巨量激增。"

"There was that Carrington event, which was the largest one ever recorded — I'm sure you're aware, Friedberg — like in the 1800s. What would happen if we had that level of event today given the infrastructure? Because back then we had telegrams; some of that equipment got fried during the Carrington event."

"历史上有过卡林顿事件(Carrington event),是有记录以来最大的一次——Friedberg 你肯定知道——大概在 1800 年代。以今天的基础设施,如果再来一次那种量级的事件会怎样?那时候我们只有电报,设备不多,但有些设备在卡林顿事件里就被烧毁了。"

"Yeah. That's the sort of event that can absolutely short-circuit electronic equipment, either in satellites — and then they'd be rendered permanently unusable. It can also hit the surface of the Earth. Remember, what protects the Earth is the magnetic field we have, and the reason we have one is because we have an iron core, and as it rotates it creates a magnetic field."

"对。那种量级的事件绝对能让电子设备短路,无论是卫星上的——那样它们就永久报废了。它也可能打到地表。别忘了,保护地球的是我们的磁场,而我们之所以有磁场,是因为地球有个铁核,铁核旋转就产生了磁场。"

"We're very lucky to have that, because that magnetic field is like a shield — a force field around the Earth — and it shoots charged particles away from the Earth and keeps them from hitting the surface, which would kill all life on Earth over time. That's why we can't go live on the surface of the Earth without protection."

"我们能拥有它非常幸运,因为这个磁场就像一面盾牌——地球周围的一层力场——它把带电粒子弹离地球、不让它们打到地表;否则久而久之会杀死地球上所有生命。这也是为什么(在别的星球)我们没有防护就没法在地表生存。"

"We're preparing for a Carrington event — like if it happened, you could turn off all the equipment? Like power grids and stuff?"

"我们为卡林顿级事件做准备——比如真发生时,可以把所有设备关掉吗?像电网这些?"

"No. So what would happen is you could have these voltage spikes that can actually short-circuit — physically destroy the microchips, the little wire connectors. So this is a very serious risk to civilization, which is why people always talk about these solar storms being those black-swan events — those one-in-a-million-year or one-in-a-hundred-year events that could render us back into the Stone Ages."

"关不掉。会发生的是:出现电压尖峰,真的能造成短路——从物理上摧毁微芯片、那些细小的连线接头。所以这是对文明非常严重的威胁,这也是为什么人们总把太阳风暴说成那种黑天鹅事件——百万年一遇、或百年一遇、能把我们打回石器时代的那种。"

"Some people say it's unclear the probability of that. But the sun does go through an 11-year cycle, and during that cycle there's a minimum and a maximum. We're kind of close to the maximum right now. So we're seeing these events very predictably every 11 years. But how big they are is something unknown to us."

"有人说这种事的概率还说不清。但太阳确实有个 11 年的周期,周期里有极小值和极大值。我们现在差不多接近极大值。所以每 11 年,我们都能相当有规律地看到这类事件。但它们会有多大,我们并不知道。"

"We try to study the dynamics of the sun, but it's very difficult to be predictive about how big these CMEs are going to be or when they'll happen. So we have to be on top of observing them as they happen. But then we only have a few hours to say, 'Oh my gosh, this thing's coming for us. Beware, everyone.' But there's not very much we can do to prepare."

"我们试着研究太阳的动力学,但要预测这些 CME 会有多大、什么时候来,非常困难。所以我们只能盯着它们实时发生。可即便如此,我们也只有几个小时的时间去喊'我的天,这东西冲我们来了,大家当心'。而我们能做的准备,其实非常有限。"

"I will say, I have a belief that electron-based computing is going to go by the wayside by the end of the century and be replaced with photon-based computing. And I think we're going to move most of what we do today with copper and semiconducting material over to photonic material and photonic systems — and ultimately quantum-meets-photonic systems, probably some point this century."

"我想说,我有个信念:电子计算会在本世纪末退场,被光子计算取代。我认为我们今天用铜和半导体材料做的绝大多数事,都会迁移到光子材料和光子系统上——并最终走向'量子与光子结合'的系统,大概就在本世纪的某个时点。"

"When that happens, these risks go away. But for now, while we're relying on electrons and moving electrons around through copper wire, we run the very strong risk of these geomagnetic storms having an adverse effect on the planet and on our core infrastructure."

"到那时,这些风险就消失了。但眼下,只要我们还依赖电子、还在铜线里搬运电子,我们就面临着地磁暴对地球、对我们核心基础设施造成不良影响的极大风险。"

"Freeberg, I got to see you earlier this week in Tokyo. We shared a little tempura. Good times."

"Friedberg,这周早些时候我在东京见到你了,我们一起吃了点天妇罗。好时光。"

"Yeah, good times in Tokyo. Definitely a lot of expats making their way from the tech industry to Tokyo. It's a booming town, booming tech scene."

"对,东京的好时光。确实有很多科技行业的人正往东京迁移。那是个欣欣向荣的城市,科技氛围也正旺。"

"There's a lot of people from America who have come to the conclusion that the great confiscation is upon us. This is what I'm calling it — the great confiscation. Whether it's California or New York, they're coming for your bags."

"有很多美国人已经得出结论:'大没收'时代来了。这是我给它起的名字——the great confiscation(大没收)。不管是加州还是纽约,他们正冲着你的钱袋子来。"

"And so people are now looking for not one but two escape hatches. A sovereign state in the United States — the great state of Texas, where I hail from the past few years — and people are looking for an international one. Everybody's getting themselves a passport or a golden visa. Japan, Riyadh, and where I've spent the last two weeks are amongst the top choices."

"所以人们现在找的不是一个、而是两个逃生舱。一个是美国国内的'主权州'——我这几年落脚的、伟大的德克萨斯州;另一个是国际逃生舱。人人都在给自己弄护照或黄金签证。日本、利雅得(Riyadh),还有我过去两周待的地方,都是热门首选。"

"Do you see this image behind me? This is that Forest City in Malaysia. It's the craziest thing I've ever seen. I went there last week. They put a hundred billion dollars into building this island. A whole city."

"看到我身后这张图了吗?这是马来西亚那座'森林城市'(Forest City)。是我见过最疯狂的东西。我上周去了。他们砸了一千亿美元建这座岛,一整座城。"

"This is the thing that Balaji owns."

"这就是 Balaji 拥有的那个地方吧。"

"No, he rented a hotel. They have a big resort hotel — he rented the whole hotel. That's where he's running his network school. He's running essentially like an in-person Y Combinator network state."

"不,他是租了一家酒店。那儿有个大型度假酒店——他把整家酒店包了下来,用来办他的'网络学校'(network school)。本质上,他在运营一个线下版的 Y Combinator 式'网络国家'(network state)。"

"You pay one fee for your apartment, your food, your gym, and you hang out with other people who want to be part of a new society with their own rules."

"你付一笔费用,就一并搞定住处、餐饮、健身房,然后跟一群同样想加入一个'有自己规则的新社会'的人待在一起。"

"Kind of interesting on the margins."

"作为一种边缘尝试,还挺有意思。"

"But between that and Singapore and Tokyo, there was a really interesting cross-section of people — kind of on the frontier of tech — that feel like it's not in the United States anymore, and they're looking for what feels like the Wild West. Where can we go? Where can we put down roots? Where can we establish a new town for a new era?"

"但把那里跟新加坡、东京放在一起看,你会遇到一批很有意思的人——算是站在科技前沿的那群——他们觉得'那个地方已经不在美国了',正在寻找一片类似'蛮荒西部'的新天地:我们能去哪儿?能在哪儿扎根?能在哪儿为一个新时代建起一座新城?"

"Because a lot of people view the US at the end of a cycle. And it may not be a massive community today, but it's a burgeoning, growing community — and there's this really interesting, maybe scary trend line of folks wanting to see this happen outside the US and making an effort to put down roots elsewhere."

"因为很多人认为美国正处在一个周期的末尾。这个群体今天也许还不算庞大,但正在萌发、壮大——而且有一条很有意思、也许有点吓人的趋势线:一批人希望这一切在美国之外发生,并且真的在努力去别处扎根。"

"I'm going to start my own little community for Vicuña—"

"我要建一个我自己的小社群,专供小羊驼绒(Vicuña)——"

"Vicuña and Wagyu. Those are the two litmus tests for entry. You could only wear Vicuña and you could only eat Wagyu."

"小羊驼绒和和牛(Wagyu)。这就是入场的两条试金石——你只能穿小羊驼绒,只能吃和牛。"

"Chamathopolis."

"就叫'Chamath 城'(Chamathopolis)。"

"All right, everybody. Another amazing episode. The All-In podcast is in the can. Love you, besties."

"好了,各位。又一期精彩节目。All-In 播客录制完毕。爱你们,死党们。"

"[Outro] Let your winners ride... Rainman David... We open-sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you. Your besties are gone."

"[片尾曲] 让你的赢家一路狂奔……'雨人'David……我们把它开源给了粉丝,他们玩疯了。爱你们。你的死党们下线啦。"