Q&A with Ray Dalio

And so what we found interesting is, everybody now somehow is — they recognize maybe returns are going to be lower, so they're going and investing in private equity or venture or other sort of private investments.

我们觉得有意思的是,现在几乎所有人都——他们意识到回报可能要降下来,于是纷纷去投私募股权、风投,或者其他形式的私募投资。

And we're sitting and we're saying, you know, to ourselves, okay, there is skill — somebody who buys, you know, a private equity skill — but you can't have, you know, you can't have that many, that many skilled people.

我们坐在那儿自己琢磨:好吧,本事这回事确实存在——买私募股权是要有本事的——但有本事的人不可能有那么多、那么多。

And, and what are the challenges the investors will face in the world you are describing, when they put their money in such illiquid investments?

那在您描述的这个世界里,投资者把钱放进这类流动性很差的投资,会遇到什么挑战?

Well, I think the first thing to know is that private equity and public equity will behave like equity.

我想首先要明白的是,私募股权和公开市场股票,都会像股票那样表现。

So just to, just to be clear, it goes up, it goes down based on the same type of uh factors.

说清楚一点,它涨还是跌,取决于同一类因素。

Private equity — if you look at the historic returns of private equity relative to the returns of public equity, they've been the same over a period of time, but the — although the top 20 percent of private equity investments have outperformed.

私募股权——如果你看私募股权相对公开市场股票的历史回报,拉长时间看两者是一样的,只不过前 20% 的私募股权投资跑赢了。

So you have to pick the right private equity investments.

所以你必须挑对私募股权投资。

And um, the reason um — and right, and and you have to pay attention to the liquidity premium.

至于原因——对,还有,你必须留意流动性溢价。

The liquidity premium means, if, if I compare a company that's private with a company that is public, do I have — is the one cheaper than the other, do I have a higher expected return?

流动性溢价的意思是,如果我拿一家没上市的公司跟一家上市公司比,我有没有——其中一家是不是比另一家便宜,我的预期回报是不是更高?

Because those risk premiums change, and you can, you can calculate those by comparing comparables, and that's a function largely of the amount of flows of capital.

因为这些风险溢价是会变的,你可以找可比对象算出来,而它在很大程度上取决于资金流入的量。

The thing that all investors should understand is that whatever is hot is going to get a lot of money flows, and when it gets a lot of money flows it's going to bid up the price.

所有投资者都该明白一点:什么东西热,钱就大量往里涌;钱一大量涌进去,价格就被抬上去。

Because most investment managers in any of this will say — will not say, "I won't take your money."

因为这里面大多数投资管理人都会说——都不会说「我不要你的钱」。

So you get these investment flows, and then there's competition, and right now private equity is like, as about as hot as you can get in terms of that.

于是资金就这么涌进来,接着是竞争,而现在私募股权在这方面差不多热到不能再热了。

So almost — very much be careful of whatever the hottest flavor is, because it's probable and getting the most money, because it's probably going to be um, you know, to receiving too much money.

所以对最热的那个品类要格外小心,因为它很可能正在拿到最多的钱,很可能钱已经多到过头了。

So if you look at the flows that private equity has got, and you look at the liquidity premiums, there are not significant liquidity premiums.

所以你看私募股权已经拿到的资金流入,再看流动性溢价,并没有多少流动性溢价可言。

So now the question is, why should I have private equity relative to that, in, in that kind of a setting?

那么问题就来了:在这样的环境下,我为什么要拿私募股权而不拿别的?

Um, you know, the other — the disadvantages of private equity are that they don't easily adapt to changes in the world, and that's one of them, and the world changes a lot.

私募股权还有别的劣势,比如它们不容易适应世界的变化,这是其中一条,而世界变化得很厉害。

You know, like Warren Buffett described when he was in — one of the things he was saying is: where won't I have the competition? Those businesses that would be non — sort of the franchises, the safe places from the competition.

就像 Warren Buffett 讲过的,他说的一点是:我在哪儿不会碰到竞争?那些不会——那种特许经营式的生意,能躲开竞争的安全地带。

And he gave an example of local newspapers, because nobody is going to go into St. Louis and build a, a new newspaper.

他举的例子是地方报纸,因为没人会跑到 St. Louis 去新办一份报纸。

So it would be — well, the competition came from, we don't read newspapers in the same way, we go online, and all the changes.

结果呢——竞争是从别处来的:我们不再用原来的方式读报了,我们上网,还有这一连串变化。

And so we're in a world that is changing, and if you look at the nature of the development of businesses over a period of time, we're having these disruptive technologies.

所以我们身处一个不断变化的世界,看企业这么多年发展的路子,颠覆性技术一个接一个出来。

So the question is, how much — how important is it to you to have flexibility? To me it's very important.

所以问题是,灵活性对你有多重要?对我来说非常重要。

I want to be able to change my mind and move as I uh, as I choose.

我希望自己能改主意,想怎么动就怎么动。

I also don't like the fact that um everybody's long.

我也不喜欢现在人人都在做多。

Okay, so let's say, what is the big exposure today? Everybody is leveraged long — the whole world is leveraged long.

那我们问,今天最大的敞口是什么?所有人都在加杠杆做多——整个世界都在加杠杆做多。

What I mean is, they're long; in other words, they're owning things that, when things go, they want them to go up — they're owning equity and equity-like things, and they're leveraged long.

我的意思是,他们是多头;换句话说,他们持有的是那种一有行情就盼着它涨的东西——他们持有股票和类股票的资产,而且是加杠杆做多。

Particularly now, because of the fact when interest rates have been low in relationship to return on equities, expected return on equities, that's caused a lot of the borrowing of money to buy equity.

尤其是现在,因为利率相对于股票回报、相对于股票的预期回报一直很低,这就催出了大量借钱买股票。

So if you look at private equity or even public equity, what you see is that there's been a lot of borrowing money to buy assets.

所以你去看私募股权,甚至看公开市场股票,会看到有大量借钱买资产的行为。

In the case of the private equity it's been through the leveraged loan market, and CLOs is a form of financing that, to get leveraged long.

私募股权这边走的是杠杆贷款市场,而 CLO 就是一种融资形式,用来把杠杆加上去做多。

So the world is leveraged long. I don't like to be with a crowded world leveraged long, particularly at this part of the cycle.

所以这个世界是加杠杆做多的。我不喜欢跟一个拥挤的、加杠杆做多的世界待在一起,尤其是在周期的这个阶段。

So I rather — I think it is a big bias, and I'd say look at your whole portfolio: what is your whole portfolio like? What is going to do well, like you said, in all parts of the cycle?

所以我宁愿——我认为这是个很大的偏向,我会说去看你的整个投资组合:你的组合到底是什么样?就像你说的,在周期的每个阶段,什么东西会表现好?

What's going to do well when bad comes? Because when bad comes, it's not just because your portfolio is bad, it's probably because your income is bad — in other words, the world is bad.

坏事来的时候什么能表现好?因为坏事来的时候,不只是你的组合不好,很可能你的收入也不好——换句话说,是整个世界都不好。

And so that notion of, how do you achieve balance without that, I think is a reason.

所以「怎么不靠那一头也能做到平衡」这个想法,我认为本身就是一条理由。

So all those are the reasons, like, I'd have to find the reason to own private equity.

所以这些都是理由,我得先给自己找出一个持有私募股权的理由。

I could own private equity instead of public equity if the risk premiums are there and I didn't mind the lack of the flexibility, but it would be difficult for me to own private equity now.

如果风险溢价到位,而且我不介意少了那份灵活性,我可以拿私募股权来代替公开市场股票,但现在我很难去持有私募股权。

But this is — nobody wants to sell when the investment has been good.

但这里的问题是——投资一直做得不错的时候,没人愿意卖。

This is the thing that you've got to change your instincts, right?

这就是你必须改掉自己本能的地方,对吧?

You've got to say — you've got to sell high and buy low.

你必须做到——高卖低买。

Sorry, but even that discipline, right, it's somehow difficult to part with that thing that was doing well, right?

不好意思,不过就算有这份纪律,要放掉那个一直表现不错的东西,总还是有点难,对吧?

In relation to the answer to Hashem's question: where do you stand in relation to passive and active asset management?

接着你回答 Hashem 那个问题:被动和主动的资产管理,你站在哪一边?

I think, I think overwhelmingly the most important thing is to get your passive, and that means diversification in terms of asset class, diversification in terms of country, diversification in terms of currency.

我认为最重要的、重要得压倒一切的,是先把被动这块做对,也就是资产类别上分散、国家上分散、货币上分散。

Because — well, I think what most people don't understand is that markets adjust so that they're all, at any point in time, almost have about the similar risk-adjusted expected returns.

因为大多数人没搞懂的一点是,市场会自我调整,使得任何一个时点上,各类资产的风险调整后预期回报都差不多。

People don't understand that, because they think, well, this company is much better than that company — well, because the world adjusts those prices.

人们不理解这一点,因为他们会想:这家公司比那家公司好多了——可这个世界早就把价格调整过了。

Because if it didn't adjust those prices, then life would be easy: you would just pick all those companies that you didn't like and you would be short those relative to the ones that you did like.

因为它要是不调整价格,投资就太容易了:你只要把不看好的公司都挑出来,相对看好的那些做空就行。

And most investors don't really somehow get that, and so as a result all of these come up and down, you know, and they readjust.

而大多数投资者就是没真正搞懂这一点,结果这些东西涨上去又跌下来,再重新调整过来。

So with that in mind, the ability to take geographic distribute uh diversification, asset class uh diversification, diversification I think is just most important.

所以想清楚这一点,能做到地域分散、资产类别分散——分散化,我认为就是最重要的。

So your asset allocation mix — you know very well, your asset allocation mix will be your main thing.

所以你的资产配置组合——你自己很清楚,资产配置组合才是你的重头戏。

Then if you take alpha, so how much active, that is alpha, um, it really depends on uh the — who's — it's zero-sum, so it's who's — can you get good poker players to sit in the hand and make money and take it away from other people?

再说 alpha,也就是主动的部分占多少:这是零和的,所以问题在于,你能不能找来高水平的扑克玩家坐上牌桌,替你赚钱,把别人手里的钱赢过来?

And that's going to be a problem.

而这会是个难题。

It's going to be a problem because almost any good poker player, any good alpha manager, is closed.

之所以是难题,是因为几乎每一个好牌手、每一个好的 alpha 管理人,都已经封盘了。

Our Pure Alpha fund is closed, you know, you can't invest in our Pure Alpha fund, because that's the nature of the beast.

我们的 Pure Alpha 基金就已经封盘,你想投也投不进来,这门生意的本性就是如此。

And then, how much can you allocate? So alpha is a very difficult game.

再说,你又能配进去多少?所以 alpha 是一场非常难打的游戏。

Alpha — to produce alpha is more difficult than to win in the Olympics, because there are more people who are trying to produce alpha.

alpha——要做出 alpha,比在奥运会上拿奖牌还难,因为想做出 alpha 的人更多。

You get — the rewards are a lot better if you can do it.

而你真要做到了,回报也确实丰厚得多。

We put, you know, many hundreds of millions of dollars a year into research to try to do it, to compete with others.

我们每年往研究里投好几亿美元,就是为了做到这件事,为了跟别人竞争。

So the most important thing is to get your strategic asset allocation mix right and to largely have it balanced, I believe.

所以我相信,最重要的还是把战略资产配置组合定对,并且大体上让它保持平衡。

Another question you mentioned, in terms of, in the long term there are terms for private equity similar to public equity.

还有一个问题:你提到过,长期来看,私募股权的回报跟公开市场股票差不多。

So the question is really related in relation to emerging market and development.

所以这个问题其实是想问新兴市场和发达市场。

I assume we would agree that in the long term they are equal — they're on a risk-adjusted basis, they're uh basically equal.

我想我们都会同意,长期来看它们是等价的——按风险调整后算,基本相当。

And also, by the way, rebalancing um — being diversified and rebalancing contributes to — not only reduces risk, but it also contributes to the return, because you're tending to buy the thing that went down and sell the thing that was higher.

另外顺便说一句,再平衡——做到分散再做再平衡,不只是降低风险,还能把回报加上去,因为你会倾向于买跌下去的那个、卖涨上去的那个。

Rebalancing is a good discipline in and of itself.

再平衡本身就是一种很好的纪律。

Another question, Ray: you touched upon raising of interest rate.

还有一个问题,Ray:你刚提到了加息。

How would you explain the situation now where the Federal Reserve is reducing their reserve — i.e. the banks that keep reserve with the central bank, they are reducing that amount of money?

你怎么解释眼下这个局面——美联储在压缩准备金,也就是说,银行存在央行的那笔钱,数量正在往下减?

It does seem that there's contradiction in terms of raising rate and giving the money to the banks to presumably lend it. Where do you stand there?

一边加息,一边又把钱给银行、想必是要它们放贷出去,这看起来确实矛盾。你怎么看?

Um, I think that the Fed — I think that the Federal Reserve um had an appropriate epiphany in terms of its monetary policy, in terms of the combination of raising rates and rolling off the balance sheet.

我认为美联储在货币政策上有过一次恰当的顿悟,就是在加息和缩表这个组合上。

So that was part of the adjustment.

那是这轮调整的一部分。

And then I think they want to keep reserves plentiful, because they don't want any financial crisis.

另外我认为他们想让准备金保持充裕,因为他们不希望出现任何金融危机。

So I think that's the nature of their thinking: to keep the reserves plentiful, and at the same time use interest rates in the balance sheet as their primary tools.

所以我认为他们的思路就是这样:让准备金保持充裕,同时把利率和资产负债表当成主要工具。

Ray, maybe if we can touch a bit on the currencies.

Ray,我们能不能稍微聊聊货币。

So, like, people — they've gotten used to holding dollars, or here in the, in the GCC they're pegged to the dollar.

人们已经习惯了持有美元,而在海湾国家这边,货币是与美元挂钩的。

Is this sort of — in this world where we're entering, is it a good, good policy to have, given that the US has all that debt?

在我们正在进入的这个世界里,考虑到美国背着这么多债务,这还算是个好策略吗?

Yeah, I um — the dollar um, a lot of the positives for the dollar are passed us, and I could ju— and I can rattle off some of them.

美元的利好大多已经过去了,我可以给你快速列几条。

Um, because the dollar, because the dollar is a reserve currency, it means that those want to borrow and lend in the dollar — countries, others, you all.

因为美元是储备货币,所以大家都愿意用美元借钱、放钱——各个国家、别的机构、在座各位。

Um, as a result of that, it's put the United States in the privileged position of being able to borrow a lot of money.

结果就是,美国因此处在一个能大举借债的特权位置上。

And it's put a lot of dollar-denominated assets, dollar-denominated debt, in the hands of large institutions around the world and holders of that.

它也把大量美元计价资产、美元计价债务,放进了全世界大型机构和这些资产持有人的手里。

So the world is very long dollars, because it also is a currency that borrowing is in — a lot of countries and entities in other countries that is not their currency borrowed in dollars to invest in their local markets, their businesses and their like.

所以全世界都重度做多美元,因为它同时也是一种用来借款的货币——很多国家,以及别的国家里的实体,在美元并不是本币的情况下借入美元,拿去投资本地市场、本地生意之类。

They borrowed in dollars, and as a result of that there's been a short squeeze in...

他们借的是美元,结果就出现了一场空头挤压——

...dollars. In other words, if you borrow in dollars you're short dollars — it's a promise to deliver dollars that you don't own.

——美元上的空头挤压。换句话说,借美元就等于做空美元,那是一个交付你并不拥有的美元的承诺。

And so in the emerging countries, a lot — we had a dollar short squeeze; in other words, not only did they have to pay the interest rate back, but they um — but when the currency appreciates they had to pay a higher price for dollars from their existing earnings.

所以在新兴市场国家,我们经历了一场美元空头挤压;换句话说,他们不光要把利息还上,而且美元一升值,他们还得用现有的收入出更高的价钱去买美元。

And so we created a short squeeze that support the dollar.

于是我们制造出了一场支撑美元的空头挤压。

If we look at what's — what's likely to happen ahead over the next, let's say, three years, that's more of a dollar weakening environment over the next three years.

如果我们看往前——比如说未来三年可能发生什么,那未来三年更像是一个美元走弱的环境。

Because we're — the United States has to sell a lot of dollar-denominated debt.

因为美国得卖出大量美元计价的债券。

And if we look at who is holding dollar-denominated debt, we find that they're largely very long; in other words, what percentage of their portfolio is in dollar-denominated debt assets?

而如果我们看谁在持有美元计价债券,会发现他们的仓位普遍很重;换句话说,他们的组合里有多大比例是美元计价的债务资产?

And it's difficult to imagine that they're going to want to increase the size of their portfolios, the portfolio share for dollar-denominated assets, in that kind of environment.

很难想象在那样的环境下,他们还会愿意扩大组合规模、把美元计价资产在组合里的占比再提上去。

In fact, we're now entering a period of time where uh some central banks have been selling dollars, or working the dollars back, at the same time, time as the debt squeeze is less.

事实上,我们现在正进入这样一段时期:一些央行一直在卖美元、或者把美元头寸往回收,与此同时那种债务挤压也在减弱。

So I think we're going to be — if I would take a three-year type of time horizon, um, that'll be a dollar weakening environment.

所以我认为,如果我取三年这样的时间跨度,那会是一个美元走弱的环境。

In addition, um, because of the nature of the stimulation that happened, there was a hump in the demand of economic activity.

另外,由于此前那轮刺激的性质,经济活动的需求出现了一个隆起。

In other words, the fiscal stimulation that happened was produced a hump followed by a slower amount of economic activity.

换句话说,已经发生的那轮财政刺激制造了一个隆起,隆起之后经济活动量会放缓。

Which means that we're going from an environment in which the Federal Reserve was leading the tightening, to an environment in which they're not going to tighten as much — and that's also not good for the dollar.

这意味着我们正从一个美联储带头收紧的环境,走向一个他们不会收得那么紧的环境——这对美元同样不利。

So um, I think we'll be switching to an environment uh which is um, from bullish in the dollar, a more bearish in the dollar, over that kind of time horizon, or probably shorter than that.

所以我认为,在那样的时间跨度里、或者可能更短的时间里,环境会从看多美元切换到更看空美元。

But I would be bearish on the dollar.

但我会看空美元。

And I think the, the point also is um, diversification of currencies — currencies following the same thing, as it were.

我认为另一个要点是货币的分散化——可以说,货币也是同一个道理。

If it was easy to say what currency is going to outperform another currency, uh, then it would be easy.

如果能轻易说出哪种货币会跑赢另一种货币,那事情就容易了。

Um, but it — diversification of currencies, it — the main reason that there's not so much diversification is because of that element of habit in the world, is the reserve currency.

但货币的分散化——之所以分散化程度没那么高,主要原因是世界上存在的那种习惯,也就是储备货币的地位。

Now we're in a situation where, longer term, I think we have a fiat monetary system, and all currencies have issues, all the reserve currencies.

现在我们所处的情况是,从更长期看,我认为我们身处一个法币体系,所有货币都有问题,所有储备货币都有问题。

It's almost like the G7 — the G7 is an obsolete concept, right?

这几乎就像 G7——G7 已经是个过时的概念了,对吧?

The three major reserve currencies, the dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen, all have issues, all have problems.

三大储备货币,美元、欧元和日元,全都有问题,全都有毛病。

And so I think that um, also gold has to be a part of a portfolio.

所以我认为,黄金也必须成为组合的一部分。

Gold — I don't mean a big part of the portfolio, but it should be between five and ten percent of a portfolio I think, maybe, depending on that, because it's also a hedging asset.

黄金——我不是说占组合很大一块,但我认为它应该占组合的 5% 到 10%,大概吧,要看情况,因为它同时也是一种对冲资产。

So if you were to say, if you would say, what currency would you like, and you were to include gold as a — I think you might think about its relative appeal.

所以如果你要问,你想持有哪种货币,并且把黄金也算进来,我认为你可以想一想它的相对吸引力。

Like, I, I think if you were to say, what asset do you think would be the safest asset and most likely to do well over a period of time, gold would have to be one of those over a longer period.

比如说,如果你要问,你觉得哪种资产最安全、并且在一段时间里最可能表现好,拉长时间看,黄金必然是其中之一。

Um, me personally, it's uh — I think it's probably eight or -ish, something like that.

就我个人而言,我想大概是 8% 左右,差不多这个数。

What about the concern—

那这方面的担忧呢——

And I, what I do is, I also have breakeven inflation positions; in other words, long the inflation-index bonds relative to the nominal bonds, as inflation hedge.

我自己的做法是,我还持有盈亏平衡通胀的头寸;换句话说,相对名义债券做多通胀挂钩债券,作为通胀对冲。

And then I have some commodities in there that make up the inflation hedge part of the portfolio.

然后我在里面还有一些大宗商品,构成组合里做通胀对冲的那部分。

The dollar has been — of course, trades is in dollars, we sell oil, and so we rely heavily uh on, on dollars, so that's why the currency is linked to the—

美元一直是——当然,贸易都用美元结算,我们卖石油,严重依赖美元,这也是我们的货币要盯住美元的原因。

However, you see practices now by the US corresponding banks: they're creating a lot of obstacles, a lot of, for to clear dollars.

但你看现在美国代理行的做法:他们在美元清算上设了很多障碍。

So companies have — sorry, countries have started exploring ways to divert away from dollar.

所以一些国家开始寻找绕开美元的办法。

Yes.

是的。

So either they deal directly among themselves, or create a system, or even go to gold and go to uh, you know, uh, medium of exchange where they have gold as a backup.

要么它们彼此直接交易,要么另建一套系统,甚至转向黄金,用有黄金作后备的交换媒介。

Yes.

是的。

And maybe hence uh that is the main reason for the increase in demand for gold.

也许这就是黄金需求上升的主要原因。

Yes, that's right. You've seen the central — for exactly the reasons you're referring to, you've seen uh, for example, Russia's completely gotten off of uh, uh, dollars and gone to a gold in terms of backup.

是的,没错。正是出于你说的这些原因,你已经看到,比如俄罗斯就完全脱离了美元,转而用黄金作后备。

But you could see this in a number of cases, and um, and um, sanctions have played a role in here.

但这种情况在不少地方都能看到,制裁在其中起了作用。

In other words, there's a worry, there's among some parts that you — that if you're holding dollar-denominated, you — that could somehow become sanctioned.

换句话说,有一种担忧,有些人担心:如果你持有以美元计价的资产,这些资产可能会以某种方式被制裁。

And these whole sanctions issue, having to do with, you know, who controls SWIFT, this and the SWIFT system and all of — is a very sensitive thing, because economics more is used now as a political weapon than it used to be.

而整个制裁问题,涉及谁控制 SWIFT、涉及 SWIFT 这套体系,是非常敏感的事,因为如今经济手段被当作政治武器的程度比过去更高。

Um, and so that's creating concerns. Nobody wants to get squeezed.

所以这就带来了担忧。谁都不想被掐住脖子。

So yes, so I, I guess this brings another question, where...

是的,我想这就引出了另一个问题,就是……

Um, we are sort of in uncharted territories in terms of what's going to happen next. We see a lot of volatility uh coming.

接下来会发生什么,我们多少已经进到未知水域了。我们看到很多波动正在袭来。

We've seen the relation — some relationships don't work sometimes.

我们看到那些关系——有些相关性有时候就是失效了。

We've seen, when Libya was down, oil output was down, the oil price did not go up, it went down.

我们看到,利比亚出问题的时候,石油产量下降了,油价却没有涨,反而跌了。

So there are broken relationships that we, we see, we have seen recently.

所以最近我们确实看到一些相关性断掉了。

In, in the US, I mean uh, the, the movement towards, you know, becoming more US-focused, the issues with the trade — all of this creating a lot of volatility.

在美国,转向更以美国为中心的这股势头,还有贸易上的那些问题——所有这些都在制造大量波动。

So for an investor going forward, what is your advice, given that this investor is — has to be in the market, they cannot be out of the market, they need to continue with their investment, whether they are sovereign wealth fund, family office?

那么往后看,你给投资者的建议是什么?前提是这个投资者必须待在市场里,他没法退出市场,他得继续投下去,不管他是主权财富基金还是家族办公室。

Or, given what we have seen so far and what is going to come, where might be a trade competition, it might be technology, technology competition, it might be various other things that will start impacting — and you will see maybe two camps, US camp and a China camp.

或者说,考虑到我们目前看到的、以及即将到来的:可能是贸易竞争,可能是技术竞争,也可能是别的种种开始产生影响的东西——你大概会看到两个阵营,美国阵营和中国阵营。

Sorry for the open question.

抱歉,问了个很开放的问题。

You know, it's, it's, it's the same, it's the same, it's the same answer, which is um, really diversify well.

答案还是同一个,就是真正把分散化做好。

Because it's not so much that wealth is destroyed as much as it goes to something else, you know — that goes down, something else goes up.

因为财富并不是被消灭了,而是转移到了别处——这边跌下去,那边就涨上来。

It's like squeezing a balloon.

就像挤一个气球。

And if you take that, like, I'd ask: okay, how much, how many do you have assets in China? I mean liquid.

顺着这个思路,我会问:好,你在中国有多少资产?我说的是流动资产。

Okay, the world is underweighted liquid assets in China, because it's just opened up, really, in terms of liquidity, you know.

全世界都低配了中国的流动资产,因为就流动性来说,它才刚刚开放。

So what is your asset mix?

那么你的资产组合是什么样的?

So if you look at your history of investing, every time you move into diversification it was a good thing, and every time everybody was cautious.

你回看自己的投资史,每一次走向分散化都是好事,而每一次大家都很谨慎。

I remember when I started in the investment business and institutional investors were mostly in US bonds, and then it was a venturesome move to go to having equities as well as bonds.

我记得我刚入行做投资的时候,机构投资者主要持有美国债券,那时候在债券之外再加上股票,是个冒险的举动。

And then it was a venturesome move to go to global equities, and then it was a venturesome move to go to emerging market equities and emerging market debt, and so on.

后来走向全球股票是个冒险的举动,再后来走向新兴市场股票和新兴市场债,又是个冒险的举动,如此往下。

All of those moves to try to achieve balance is, is, is, is the best thing, because some winners probably going to produce some loser, and uh, to create concentration and old will be obsolete.

所有这些追求平衡的举动都是最好的选择,因为有赢家就很可能有输家,而集中持仓、守着旧东西,会被淘汰。

So you have to diversify well.

所以你必须把分散化做好。

I'm sorry — with, with the renminbi, the Chinese currency: um, I think, I think the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is going to be a very good currency.

抱歉——说到人民币,中国的货币:我认为人民币会是一种非常好的货币。

Um, and it's going to be a relatively stable currency in terms of buying power.

而且就购买力而言,它会是一种相对稳定的货币。

The Chinese don't want it to be — they want it to be a reserve currency.

中国人不想让它——他们想让它成为储备货币。

Um, and as we're going to the One Belt One Road initiative and we're having greater amounts of trade, and there's always a debtor and a creditor in it, and you don't want it to too bad for either of them, and.

随着一带一路推进、贸易量越来越大,这里面总有债务方和债权方,你不希望结果对哪一方太糟。

And if you look at their balance sheet, they've got a good balance sheet, and so you'll expect that that over a period of time I think will be a good—

而你去看他们的资产负债表,他们的资产负债表不错,所以可以预期,过一段时间我认为它会是个不错的——

Now, what are the issues about the renminbi? Um, we — as a reserve currency you still don't have the free convertibility.

那么人民币的问题在哪儿?作为储备货币,它还没有自由兑换。

So that notion of, you know, being able to move money into China and take money out of China — that's going to be a challenge.

所以钱能进中国、也能出中国这件事——会是个挑战。

But, but there'll be an offshore market in the renminbi of all of the transactions going on, and I think in that offshore market, as it grows, it'll continue to be a good, good market.

但人民币会有一个离岸市场,承载正在发生的所有交易,我认为随着这个离岸市场长大,它会继续是个很好的市场。

So the currency itself I think will grow in importance as a reserve currency; the issue would be the nature of free capital movements.

所以我认为这个货币本身作为储备货币,重要性会不断上升;问题在于资本自由流动的性质。

Um, I have a question. You said at the beginning that we should take your framework and use it to invest within our objectives.

我有个问题。你一开始说,我们应该拿你的框架,按我们自己的目标去投资。

And so, when you showed us the cycle clock, it kind of suggested that at this point in the cycle the only thing that does okay is inflation-linked bonds, really.

那么,你给我们看那个周期时钟的时候,多少是在暗示:在周期的这个位置上,真正还过得去的其实只有通胀挂钩债券。

So you would tilt perhaps away from equities towards that.

所以你大概会从股票那边挪出来,往那边偏。

On the other hand, the return on inflation-linked bonds isn't very exciting, and there's nothing to stop this cycle continuing much longer than we expect.

可另一方面,通胀挂钩债券的回报并不诱人,而且没有什么能阻止这个周期比我们预期的持续得久很多。

It could be — I mean, people talk about a recession in 2020, but we could continue like this for another five, six years, if the Fed is skilled enough to keep the growth, you know, roughly at the productivity rate.

完全有这个可能——人们在谈 2020 年的衰退,但我们可能就这么再走五六年,只要美联储手法足够娴熟,把增长大致维持在生产率的水平上。

And we can have a bit of inflation, two and a half, three percent, and that can sustain itself for quite a while — in which case, if you're hiding in being defensive, expecting that this is late, you know, there's the old fear-of-missing-out issue.

我们可以有一点通胀,2.5%、3%,而这个能自我维持相当长一段时间——那样一来,如果你躲在防守姿态里,以为周期已经到晚期,就会撞上那个老问题:错失恐惧。

Yeah. So um, first of all, I'm not saying inflation-index bonds — I didn't mean to get precise about the um, one of those asset classes or not.

是的。首先,我并不是在说通胀挂钩债券——我并没打算把话说到那么精确,精确到是不是这一类资产。

I was making the point that returns are definitely going to be very low over that period of time.

我要讲的是,在那段时间里回报肯定会非常低。

I, I guess I never should say definitely, but returns are going to be very low over that particular period of time.

我想,我永远不该说「肯定」,但在那一段特定的时间里,回报会非常低。

And the reason inflation-index bonds or nominal bonds or equities have low returns is because we have a debtor-creditor situation.

而通胀挂钩债券、名义债券或者股票之所以回报低,是因为我们处在一个债务人—债权人的局面里。

And you ask, who are they going to favor, the debtor or the creditor? And...

你要问的是,他们会偏向谁,债务人还是债权人?

Right now you want to have low interest rates, you have the burden of the debt, you're going to have low real interest rates.

现在你要的是低利率,债务的负担压着你,实际利率就会很低。

So all investments are being priced off of each other and going to be competitive and competing each other.

所以所有投资都是相互对照着定价的,会彼此竞争、互相较劲。

Cash is a negative real return, real — or just about a negative real return.

现金的实际回报是负的——或者说,差不多是负的。

And then you take inflation-index bonds and any of those things, they have very, very bad returns.

再看通胀挂钩债券,以及那一类的任何东西,回报都非常非常差。

And so all I'm saying, first of all, is that we are in the part of the cycle where that's true.

所以我说的首先只是:我们正处在周期里那种情况成立的那一段。

We are not going to have the benefit of an interest rate cut causing a present value effect — we're at that end of the cycle.

我们不会再有降息带来现值效应的那份好处了——我们已经走到周期的那一头。

Regarding, let's say, what growth can be: it is, it is possible that the central banks don't have a problem and that they get it right, as you're saying.

至于增长能到什么程度:确实有可能央行没碰上问题,像你说的那样做对了。

I think it's very unlikely globally.

我认为放到全球看,这非常不可能。

I think if you look at the ECB situation, the maneuverability is very limited; look at Japan's situation, look at the United States to some extent.

我认为你看 ECB 的处境,回旋空间非常有限;看日本的处境,某种程度上也看美国。

Um, I think that's an issue.

我认为这是个问题。

Um, but I would look at which countries have leeway: the United States has a leeway of two and a half percent, uh, China has a leeway of about three percent.

但我会去看哪些国家还有余地:美国有 2.5% 的余地,中国大概有 3% 的余地。

Uh, but if you don't have a reason to stop it, you're not going to stop it, and it might extend out a longer period of time.

但没有理由停就不会停,它可能还会延续更长一段时间。

I think then you have to say, how does that growth rate compare with what is discounted?

我认为接下来你得问,那个增长率跟市场已经贴现进去的东西比起来如何?

So I think there's revenue growth, which is tied to economic growth, and then there's profit margins, and then there's taxes.

所以有营收增长,它跟经济增长挂钩;然后有利润率;再有税。

And when I look at the profit margin picture for equities right now — because earnings grew at a certain pace, there's a tendency to think that's going to continue, but it was a profit margin expansion.

而我看现在股票的利润率状况——盈利曾经以某个速度增长,人们就倾向于认为这会继续下去,但那是一次利润率的扩张。

And I think that you're not going to have a profit margin expansion.

而我认为你不会再有一次利润率扩张。

And so I um, even if the revenues go, I don't think you're going to see the profit margin expansion.

所以即便营收往上走,我也不认为你会看到利润率扩张。

I don't think you're going to see um the leveraging up and buying back of equities in the same form that there was, the purchase of equities.

我不认为你会看到像过去那种形式的加杠杆和股票回购,那种对股票的买入。

I don't think you're going to see any company tax cuts — I think we've seen the best.

我不认为你还会看到公司减税——我认为最好的时候已经过去了。

So those three things that were real pluses, even in an environment where we have um this cycle extending, I think are risks for the equity market.

所以那三件实打实的加分项,即便在这个周期延长的环境里,我认为对股票市场也都是风险。

So when I look at the risk and return, equity risk premiums — expected risk, risk, excuse me, expected returns of equities relative to returns of bonds are not that much high, and it's not very attractive.

所以当我看风险和回报、看股票风险溢价——股票的预期回报相对于债券的回报并没有高出多少,吸引力不大。

So when I look at all of that, I, I'd say, you know, the picture doesn't look so good.

所以把这些都放在一起看,我会说,这个图景看着不太好。

Now I could be wrong, but — and so for anything, for, for most things.

我也可能是错的,不过——这话对什么都成立,对大多数东西都成立。

So that's why I, I would say, if I was to make tactical bets, I would say if I was to go to some emerging countries.

所以这就是为什么我会说,如果要我做战术性下注,我会去一些新兴国家。

I think the emerging market got cheaper because there was the debt squeeze and so on; now some of these have bounced back a bit.

我认为新兴市场变便宜了,是因为出现过债务挤压之类的事;现在其中有一些已经反弹了一点。

But if, if you take a look, they've gotten squeezed in the dollars, they've gotten squeezed in the debt.

但你去看,它们在美元上挨过挤压,在债务上也挨过挤压。

If you look at their comparative value, like, you know, even uh like Russia's five times earnings, or if you take India, or some places like, in terms of the relative compet—

你看它们的比较价值,比如俄罗斯才五倍市盈率,或者拿印度,或者某些别的地方,就相对竞争力而言——

So I think that there's more opportunity, if you were going to take it, in, in certain parts of the world and in certain types of, you know, in both their debt and the equity market.

所以我认为,如果你要下手,世界上某些地方、某些类型的市场机会更多——它们的债券市场和股票市场两边都有。

But these are tactical bets, so I give you what I think today; the world changes.

但这些是战术性下注,我给你的是我今天的看法;世界会变。

I, I'm not here six months, I'll give you a different position, and who knows if I'm right anyway.

过六个月,我给你的会是另一个立场,而且反正谁知道我对不对。

So I think the key is this element of achieving the right — is what applied to, to the center.

所以我认为关键在于把这件事做对——也就是刚才说的、适用于核心的那部分。

So they suffer in terms of liquidity, they come in fashion, they go out of fashion, they have the movements.

所以它们在流动性上会吃亏,时而变得时髦,时而过时,起起落落。

And um, you know, their expected returns — again, I would say over a period of time on a risk-adjusted basis, and probably comparable — it's where there's going to be greater.

而它们的预期回报——我还是要说,拉长时间看、按风险调整后看,大概是可比的——更高的那块就在那里。

I think there's going to be not only greater growth, there's um efficiency impacts.

我认为那里不只会有更高的增长,还有效率上的改善。

Like if you look at India and you say, what you had is a, a bureaucracy and a terrible inefficiency, and then you say, now technology is going to come to India and the whole change it's going to create.

比如你看印度,原来那里是一套官僚体系加上糟糕的低效,然后你想,现在技术要进入印度了,以及它将带来的整个改变。

Uh, and I'm just giving — Brazil um, changes in terms of its squeeze and, and certain things. Anyway, who knows, that's, that's the game.

我只是举个例——巴西,它在挤压方面的变化,以及某些别的东西。反正谁知道呢,这就是这个游戏。

Where would you place the odds of Trump win in 2020, and its impact on the global or the US markets?

你觉得 Trump 在 2020 年胜选的概率有多大?这对全球市场或美国市场会有什么影响?

Uh, 50-50. Um, it's, you know, way too much, way too early to call.

五五开。现在判断实在太早。

Probably you have to wait till the morning after the elections to know — I mean, it's uh, way, way too early to wait, too early to tell.

可能得等到大选次日早上才知道——我是说,现在实在太早,还判断不出来。

And but the movement and the elections will be market-driving influences, because it will be socialism or capitalism, and the probabilities will change with the polls, and so it will be a source of market volatility, I think.

但这场运动和这场大选都会成为驱动市场的力量,因为这关乎社会主义还是资本主义,概率会随民调变化,所以我认为它会成为市场波动的一个来源。

Um, could, could, you know, this picture that you paint um of low growth in the future and expected returns — um, could Europe or...

你描绘的这幅未来低增长、低预期回报的图景——欧洲,或者……

...US — does Europe or US look a little bit, bit like Japan in the 80s, in the 90s now?

……美国——欧洲或者美国现在看起来,是不是有点像 80 年代、90 年代的日本?

Yeah.

是的。

And in the long-term debt cycle that you talk about, whether it's short-term, a long-term debt cycle, which one is closer to that?

而在你讲的债务周期里,不管短期债务周期还是长期债务周期,哪一个离那种情形更近?

Uh, Europe. I'm saying Europe is just about out of gas speak, I mean in terms of monetary policy.

欧洲。我是说,欧洲在货币政策上差不多已经没弹药了。

And, and then we're dealing with the politics of Europe, and uh we have a structural problem in the form of Italy, but also in the form of other countries, in terms of like the exchange rate.

然后我们还要应付欧洲的政治,而且在汇率上还有个结构性问题,它体现在意大利身上,也体现在其他国家身上。

So it's, it's not competitive at this existing exchange rate, and so it's going to have stagnation.

在现有这个汇率水平上,它没有竞争力,所以它会陷入停滞。

And then as it has stagnation, then it causes the credit spreads to rise, so it's interest rates, it's are higher than in other countries at the same time as its competitiveness is less.

而一旦陷入停滞,就会推高信用利差,于是它的利率比别的国家更高,同时竞争力又更弱。

And that creates political problems as well as, uh, you know, the whole economic problem.

这既带来政治问题,也带来整个经济层面的问题。

You know, Europe has less move — Europe is much more like Japan.

欧洲能腾挪的空间更小——欧洲跟日本要像得多。

And in your, in your framework, you know, when you talk about growth and inflation, and productivity is a big part of that — why?

在你的框架里,你谈增长和通胀,生产率是其中很大一块——为什么?

So productivity has been — obviously has come back a little bit in the US, but it's been muted.

生产率——在美国显然回来了一点,但一直很弱。

But inflation hasn't really showed up, even though you've had 10 years of steady growth and monetary policy, and now fiscal stimulus at the end of the cycle.

但通胀始终没真正出现,尽管已经有 10 年的稳定增长和货币政策,现在周期末尾又叠加了财政刺激。

So where is inflation, and what's, what's keeping it where it is?

那么通胀去哪儿了?是什么让它停在现在这个位置?

Uh, I, I gave the — it's the amount of spending dividing by the amount of uh credit, uh, goods sold.

我前面讲过那个算法——它是支出总量除以售出商品的数量。

And uh so what's happened is um that the amount of money that has been produced has increased a lot relative to the amount of credit that has increased, which hasn't been much.

实际发生的是,投放出来的货币量增加了很多,相比之下信贷的增量并不大。

And then there's also been um the digital liberalization in the — and globalization, but particularly also digitalization.

另外还有数字领域的自由化,以及全球化,但尤其是数字化。

The whole idea of capacity constraints is a different concept in a digital commun— economy, because you can turn that on, you don't have a bottleneck.

产能约束这整个概念,在数字经济里完全是另一回事,因为你可以直接把它开起来,不存在瓶颈。

You know, if you have a digital business in any way, you can just produce it, and you don't have a bottleneck in the same way — that digitalization.

你做的只要是某种数字业务,就可以直接生产出来,不会像过去那样撞上瓶颈——这就是数字化。

So if you look at the breakdown of inflation, we have uh steady goods deflation; goods have deflated on a regular, on a consistent basis, still or deflating.

所以你去看通胀的构成:我们有持续的商品通缩;商品一直在有规律地、持续地通缩,现在还在通缩。

And so if you look at that breakdown — so um, the real question is that bottleneck, how that bottleneck will play a role.

所以你看这个构成——真正的问题是那个瓶颈,那个瓶颈会起什么作用。

And, and the bottleneck of um uh labor connected, connected to inflation is, is very muted.

而与通胀相关的劳动力瓶颈,非常弱。

So I agree in terms of the notion, like, the inflation problem — I don't know what all the worry about the inflation problem is.

所以这个说法我同意——通胀问题,我不明白大家围着通胀问题担心的到底是什么。

I think it's very much an exaggerated worry.

我认为这种担忧被大大夸大了。

I think central banks are thinking about — have thought about it in an old-world type of way, where, you know, like they said — the Federal Reserve people that I know, they say, oh well, I don't understand why inflation hasn't picked up.

我认为央行在用一种旧世界的方式想这件事——我认识的那些美联储的人会说,我不明白通胀为什么没起来。

It's actually not difficult, if you look at the individual components of inflation: you know, what is goods and what are the types of goods, and what are the services and types of services.

这其实不难,只要你去看通胀的各个分项:什么是商品、都是哪些类型的商品,什么是服务、都是哪些类型的服务。

And their idea that inflation's going to pick up is very heavily tied to the notion of, like, when you have the capacities constraints and unemployment — uh, unemployment rates are low and then you're going to get wage inflation.

他们认为通胀会起来,很大程度上绑在这样一个观念上:一旦出现产能约束、失业率又很低,就会出现工资通胀。

But even wage inflation is uh going to somewhat tepid.

但就连工资通胀也会比较温和。

So I think that the way the inflation — there has not been a really good reason for inflation to accelerate.

所以我认为,一直没有一个真正充分的理由让通胀加速。

I think the risks are asymmetric on the downside.

我认为风险不对称、偏在下行。

You know, just watch: if inflation picks up and you're really worried about it, put on the brakes.

你就看着:如果通胀起来了、你真的担心它,那就踩刹车。

But what you should worry about is if the economy turns down and you don't have as much ammunition, and then you have this political polarity — that's what's to worry about, I think, on a downturn.

但你真该担心的是,如果经济掉头向下,而你手里的弹药又没那么多,再加上这种政治对立——我认为那才是下行时该担心的。

So yeah, I'm, I'm not as concerned about inflation, unless there's monetary inflation.

所以是的,我并不那么担心通胀,除非出现货币性通胀。

I think you could see monetary inflation at some point, and it's going to come through first through the currency, and that becomes the interesting—

我认为在某个时点你可能会看到货币性通胀,而它首先会通过货币体现出来,那就变得很有意思了——

We will be around when that becomes an issue with the dollar, I blue— believe.

我相信,等美元真出问题的那天,我们都还在。

I think maybe one of the explanation that we didn't see inflation in products and retail market etc., we have seen it in the financial markets.

我想,我们在商品和零售市场这些地方没看到通胀,一个解释也许是:通胀出现在了金融市场里。

So the question is really, what will be the impact if there's a deflation in the — on the real economy and on inflation at that stage?

所以真正的问题是,如果到那个阶段出现通缩,对实体经济、对通胀会有什么影响?

Well, as, as you know, if the financial markets go down, then of course people's collateral goes down, people's assets — um, people's sentiment goes down, um, lending shrinks, losses occur; there's a self-reinforcing cycle.

如你所知,金融市场一跌,人们的抵押品当然就缩水,资产、情绪跟着下滑,放贷收缩,亏损出现;这是一个自我强化的循环。

I um — I did a debt cycle book, I don't — we're gonna, we have it outside, okay.

我写过一本讲债务周期的书,外面就有。

There's a debt cycle book, and you know, and that produces that kind of reim— reinforcing cycle until there's enough liquidity brought in.

那本书讲的就是债务周期,而这会产生那种不断强化的循环,直到有足够的流动性注入进来。

And so it's a dangerous situation, because if you have that happen and collateral goes down, and then you have a limited capacity by central bankers to deal with that.

所以这是很危险的局面,因为一旦发生这种情况、抵押品缩水,而央行应对的能力又有限。

Like, I don't — I honestly don't know what Europe will do in that kind of a situation, you know, what new type of quantitative easing.

老实说,我不知道欧洲在那种局面下会怎么做,会用什么新形式的量化宽松。

So yeah, no, it would not be good if financial asset prices went down much. We...

总之,如果金融资产价格大幅下跌,那不会是好事。我们……